?konometrische Analyse der Temperaturvariabilit?t

This paper aims at analysing temperature fluctuations by applying an econometric methodology. To this end a physically founded macroclimate model is suggested for individual examinations of the climate forcing of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and other greenhouse gases as well as of the cooling effect of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) since 1880 and for a comparison of their impacts. The autoregressive process in the temperature anomalies is analysed, and a cointegration analysis is carried out to show that a long-term causal interrelation can be derived from the stochastic trend variables considered. However, this interrelation is not unique. It turns out that anthropogenic factors and total solar irradiance determine the warming trend in the period 1880 to 2005, whilst the remaining natural factors explain a part of the deviation from this trend. With 42?% the autoregressive process in the anomalies has a considerable impact on the temperature increase. Climate sensitivity amounting to 0.11 (K?m²)/W therefore is comparatively low. If the share of the autoregressive process is allocated to each regressor individually CO₂ has an impact of 65?%. The SO₂ emissions have a significant cooling effect, neutralizing 45?% of the climate forcing of CO₂. The non-CO₂ greenhouse gases contribute 55?% to the temperature increase and hence more than the net effect of CO₂ and SO₂ of 36?%. Hence, the sensitivity of the climate with regard to these greenhouse gases is very high. When applying accelerated mitigation measures with respect to non-CO₂ greenhouse gases it is possible to reach the 2^° target without decarbonisation.     

The Euro and the World Monetary system

Stage Three of European Economic and Monetary Union is scheduled to begin on 1st January 1999 at the latest; by 1st July 2002 the euro will probably be the only legal tender in the participating countries. The role of the European Central Bank and the euro in the international monetary system is still very unclear, however. This poses a risk for the intended independence of the ECB.