A New Approach to Currency Depreciation

Currency depreciation has been studied conventionally in terms of three hypotheses—the elasticities approach, the monetary approach and the absorption approach. In this paper we offer another hypothesis called the price approach, wherein the balance of payment disequilibrium results from an inappropriate price level. Specifically, a country has a trade surplus if the equilibrium price level is below that compatible with balanced trade; by contrast, it has a trade deficit if the price level is above that compatible with balanced trade. We illustrate the price approach with the experience of currency devaluations that have occurred in emerging markets since 1997.     

Economics in Crisis: Severe and Logical Contradictions of Classical, Keynesian, and Popular Trade Models

The paper examines three popular models that form the foundation of modern economics. The author concludes that two of the three, the classical and the Keynesian, are seriously deficient in logic, whereas the third, dealing with gains from trade, is partially lacking in logic. Classical and neo–Keynesian approaches require desired investment to expand during recessions, whereas the trade model requires real GDP to rise without any rise in employment, capital stock, or technology. The paper offers an alternative macro framework that is free from the limitations of conventional models. Money is either neutral or non–neutral, depending on whether the economy is operating below or at full capacity. Wages are strictly determined in the labor market, yet employment is influenced by aggregate demand. The alternative model thus combines the attractive features of classical and Keynesian frameworks.     

Changes in the theory of interorganizational relations in marketing: Toward a network paradigm

The marketing environment in the 21st century promises to be knowledge rich and very turbulent. The classic, vertically integrated, multidivisional organization, so successful in the 20th century, is unlikely to survive in such an environment. The evidence indicates it will be replaced by new forms of network organization consisting of large numbers of functionally specialized firms tied together in cooperative exchange relationships. This article explores the characteristics of four types of network organization that may represent prototypes of the dominant organizations of the next century. These include the internal market network, the vertical market network, the intermarket network, and the opportunity network. The economic rationale and the types of coordination and control mechanisms driving network organizations are very distinct from those studied under the current exchange or dyadic paradigm. This article analyses the kinds of changes involved in key variables and their meanings in moving from a dyadic view of exchange to a network view. Prior to joining the faculty of The George Washington University in 1991, he was on the faculty of the University of Notre Dame. His areas of research interest include interorganization theory and marketing strategy. His articles have appeared in theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Social Science Research, Journal of Business Strategy, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, and various other publications. He is a member of the editorial review board of theJournal of Marketing.     

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

Wage Stagnation in Japan

In the last ten years, a number of economists have tried to explain the observed decline or stagnation in the real wages of the US labor force in spite of slow but steady rise in labor productivity. This paper reports a similar affliction for the Japanese labor market since 1973. The explanation for stagnant wages in spite of respectable productivity gains in Japan lies in the vast appreciation of the yen versus the dollar, and ultimately in the highly regulated retail distribution.     

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts

We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well–documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles.     

Binomial Option Pricing with Skewed Asset Returns

This research presents a method for estimating the parameters of the binomial option pricing model necessary to appropriately price calls on assets with asymmetric end-of-period return distributions. Parameters of the binomial model are shown to be a function of the mean, variance, and skewness of the underlying return distribution. It is also shown that failure to incorporate skewness results in the mispricing of the call.     

The REIT Modernization Act of 1999

This article examines two effects of the passage of the REIT Modernization Act (RMA) of 1999: its impacts on REIT shareholder wealth and changes in REIT systematic risk in the period following its passage. The results indicate a modest positive wealth effect associated with the legislative events leading to its enactment. Our estimates of the wealth gain probably underestimate the true wealth gain because of the partially anticipated nature of the legislative process. We also document a significant decline in the systematic risk of REITs subsequent to the passage of the RMA. The evidence suggests that this decline is not attributable to a provision of the RMA that allows REITs to establish taxable subsidiaries.