中、美国际贸易差额探析

中、美贸易中中国持续顺差的地位引起了美国对中国的强烈不满,从此,中、美贸易摩擦不断。本文以2006年为例,从中美贸易微观视角上分析了外汇成本和出口成本、从贸易理论上探析了贸易利益分配,从中、美贸易统计方法的不同等几个方面对中美贸易的实际利益进行了分析,得出中、美贸易顺差对中国来说只是数字,美国才是实际获利者。     

产权酒店现状及对策分析——基于长沙市产权酒店实证分析

长沙市近几年引入了产权酒店这种旅游房地产的新型模式,但是由于行业管理不规范、法律法规不健全等因素的存在,阻碍了未来长沙产权酒店业的健康发展。本文通过实地调查,分析了长沙市产权酒店发展的现状,并提出了相应对策。     

An Equilibrium Approach to the Aggregation of Beliefs

This paper presents a new answer to the old question of how to aggregate individual beliefs. We construct a model which allows agents to take arbitrage opportunities against the aggregated belief by making contingent claims against the states, and the aggregator (market maker) regulates the probability of states. When all claims from the agents are mutually covered for every realization of the state, an aggregation of individual beliefs is thus obtained. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium aggregation, and also show that the aggregate belief lies in the convex hull of individual beliefs. This model allows us to address some important problems such as how individual agent’s attitude toward risk and wealth endowment affect the outcome of the aggregation process, and whether the aggregate belief satisfies the well-known properties like equal treatment.     

A Closed Form Characterization of the Stationary Outcome in Multilateral Bargaining

In this paper we consider infinite horizon multilateral bargaining with alternate offers. We prove that there exists only one stationary subgame perfect equilibrium outcome and it corresponds to the unique invariantmeasure of a column stochastic matrix. We characterize this stationary subgame perfect equilibrium outcome in a closed form, and also extend the approach to the multilateral bargaining with random moves.     

Organizational Change in Difficult Times: A Case Study on the Top Management Team of Founder Group from 1999 to 2008

This paper examines organizational changes in Founder Group during 1999–2008, one of the leading computer manufacturers in China. It aims to reveal the basic logic behind the top management team’s behaviors for organizational change in firms facing difficulties. Results show that building a strong management team is a prerequisite for successful organizational changes. Furthermore, there is evidence indicating that top managers should make strategic adjustment, and seek solution to cash-flow-related problems to achieve successful organizational transition.     

TOOR: A Novel Product Title Optimization Method Based on Online Reviews in E-commerce

Titles of online products play an important role in attracting consumers and promoting product sales in e-commerce. However, current online product titles only cover basic features and cannot reflect the preferences of consumers exactly. To address this problem, this research proposed an online title optimization method based on the analysis of online reviews, which is called TOOR (Title Optimization based on Online Reviews). In this research, we analyzed and compared product features extracted from online product titles and online reviews from the point of view of consumers and applied features extracted from reviews to title optimization. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, two experiments were conducted in this paper, selecting four typical smartphones as experiment samples and Taobao.com as the data resources. The experimental results indicated that features extracted from online reviews can better reflect the consumers’ concern, and the titles optimized by the TOOR method are more appealing to consumers and have higher click-through rates.     

A Bayesian Nonparametric Investigation of the Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Commodity Prices

This study proposes a full Bayesian nonparametric procedure to investigate the predictive power of exchange rates in relation to commodity prices for three commodity-exporting countries: Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. We propose a new time-dependent infinite mixture of a normal linear regression model of the conditional distribution of the commodity price index. The mixing weights follow a set of Probit stick-breaking priors that are time-varying. We find that exchange rates have a positive predictive effect in general, but accounting for time variation does not improve forecasting performance. By contrast, the intercept in the regression and the lagged dependent variable show signs of parameter change over time in most cases, which is important in forecasting both the mean and the density of commodity prices one period ahead. The results also suggest that the variance is a large source of the time variation in the conditional distribution of commodity prices.     

The Selection of Industry Given Preference in Development of Each Province： A Comparative Empirical Study Based on the Power of Industry Competition

As China has joined WTO, the global competitive market is open widely to us and we are confronted with both the opportunity and challenge. The urgent affairs during the project period of the Eleventh Five-year Plan are how to constitute scientific regional expansion program of industry in our country. Based on the theory of industry competition power along with the methods of Factor Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process, the paper chooses manufacturing as its subject irivestigated to do a comparative empirical study on the manufacturing development of each province. Then as to the industry that should be given preference in development, the paper selects some provinces having development advantages according to the theory of industrial cluster, which provides a reference to the decision-making of regional industrial expansion program during the period of the Eleventh Five-year Plan.