Bayes estimates of distance‐to‐market: transactions costs,cooperatives and milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non‐participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for positive marketable surplus—‘distances‐to market’—are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left‐censored at some unobserved threshold; production efficiencies are heterogeneous; and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise is important because they are fundamental to the data‐generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second, because selling involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third, the potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market‐precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does ecotourism contribute to sustainable destination development,or is it just a marketing hoax? Analyzing twenty-five years contested journey of ecotourism through a meta-analysis of tourism journal publications

ABSTRACT

Conducting a periodical systematic review on a given field of study enables to comprehend the conceptual development of a discipline. A decade has passed since the last in-depth systematic review on contemporary ecotourism research has been published. This study is, therefore, executed to systematically analyze ecotourism research articles published in the previous twenty-five years and thereby to reassess the past, understand the present and envisage the future of ecotourism development. 470 articles published in nine top-tier tourism journals are screened and analyzed. Thematic and summative content analyses are employed to examine the contents of each publication. The findings highlight that over the years, researchers have examined myriads of ecotourism research themes. Despite fluctuations over the years, the overall publication trend shows growth. Most ecotourism studies are conducted in developing countries, with Asia taking the lead followed by Africa and Latin America. However, in terms of researchers’ domicile, the USA becomes the first followed by Australia, the UK, and Canada. Despite modest successes, overall, the contribution of ecotourism towards sustainable destination development remains indiscernible. The current study provides up-to-date insight into the ecotourism literature by highlighting the main themes and trends of ecotourism research over the last twenty-five years. Research findings also enhance our understanding of the evolution of ecotourism research and ignite further study in ecotourism by suggesting issues that merit rigorous investigation.     

Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

This paper uses multiple rounds of panel data to assess the distributional implications of the variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression‐based inequality decomposition approach to estimate the impact of climate‐induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time‐invariant and time‐variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10% increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52% on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25% and 43% of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16% and 31% of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.     

Rural Land,Emerging Rental Land Markets and Public Policy in Ethiopia

Abstract: While farmers today access land mainly through administrative‐based land distribution, transactions in rental markets are on the rise. Different rental contracts are informally arranged with varied land use and transfer rights and degree of enforcement. These contracts are often interlocked to overcome the problem of incomplete or missing non‐land factor markets. The empirical evidence is thin but shows mixed records on performance of rental markets. Transactions in rental markets provide an additional venue to access land, reduce disparity in distribution of area of land operated, correct imbalances in factor proportions at farm level, and partly substitute for missing or incomplete factor markets. However, rights to rental land are restricted and poorly enforced, and markets are localized and thinly traded. While participation in rental markets is potentially welfare improving, increasing scarcity of land and demands for higher rent, a fee for right to rent land, payment in cash, farming skills and experience, and proof of no‐default are tightening conditions to access to land, particularly to the young poor farmers. Public policy has an important role in formalizing and enhancing the development of rental markets through strengthening enforceable long‐term security of tenure, providing legal cover to rental contracts, allowing tradability of long‐term use rights through rental markets, and providing the institutional mechanism to enforce contracts and reduce the burden of self‐enforcement. These policy measures need to be nested within a broad framework of market development, and informed by policy research and experimentation.     

Food demand studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: a survey of empirical evidence

The recent empirical food demand studies on Sub-Saharan Africa show significant advances in demand specification and methodology, especially in the application of less restrictive and theoretically consistent flexible functional forms. The findings to date establish some broad patterns on effect of income, household demography and life cycle, location, and prices on food demand patterns. However, the numerical values of the demand estimates are less generalizable because of an insufficient number of data points to separate the true demand component from other confounding factors, which are linked to differences in modeling and estimation of demand relations. The priority for future research is to generate sufficiently detailed demand estimates that have a high utility for disaggregated policy analysis, but are based on a theoretically consistent and comparable methodology.     

Nonfarm employment,agricultural intensification,and productivity change: empirical findings from Uganda

This article uses panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for Uganda to assess the farm‐level effects of nonfarm employment on agricultural intensification and productivity change. A sample selection model is used to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and potential simultaneity between agricultural production and nonfarm income. Results show that nonfarm employment can have differential impacts on farm technology intensity and productivity. Nonfarm income is found to have a positive impact on farm hired labor and improved seed intensity; a negative effect on on‐farm family labor use; and no significant impact on fertilizer, soil water management, and joint use of farm technologies. The econometric evidence also indicates that agricultural productivity declines as nonfarm income increases. Taken together, our findings reveal important trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and income and farm productivity growth under smallholder agriculture. The results indicated that targeted policies are required to reduce these potential trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and agricultural intensification and productivity change.     

Welfare impacts of maize–pigeonpea intensification in Tanzania

This article examines the driving forces behind farmers’ decisions to adopt improved pigeonpea and maize and estimates the causal impact of technology adoption on household welfare using data obtained from a random cross‐section sample of 613 small‐scale farmers in Tanzania. We use seemingly unrelated and recursive bivariate probit regressions to test the endogeneity and joint decision making of pigeonpea–maize production. A double hurdle model is used to analyze the determinants of the intensity of technology adoption conditional on overcoming seed access constraints. To address the impact of adoption on welfare, the article employs both propensity score matching and switching regression techniques. Results from bivariate probit models show that unobservable factors cause both decisions to be correlated but the finding does not support the conjecture that both decisions are made jointly. Overall the analysis of the determinants of adoption identifies inadequate local supply of seed, access to information, human capital, and access to private productive asset as key constraints for pigeonpea technology adoption. The causal impact estimation from both the propensity score matching and switching regression suggests that maize/pigeonpea adoption has a positive and significant impact on income and consumption expenditure among sample households.     

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is the opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA but no similar evidence in SSA.     

Factors affecting entry and intensity in informal rental land markets in Southern Ethiopian highlands

Informal land transactions, particularly rental land markets, are emerging in rural Ethiopia in response to the inadequacies of the administratively based land distribution system to meet the growing demand for land and correct imbalances in factor proportions at the farm level. These informal land markets provide a vehicle to equalise factor proportions at the farm level and to improve productivity and hence households' welfare. Among the farmers who lease out land, those who live in the highland‐areas, where land is scarce and unequal, are more likely to engage in these markets. Increases in the size of land holdings relative to labour and livestock ownership, the number of non‐working household members and pressure for subsistence increase the likelihood of leasing out land. On the other hand, increases in the number of working adults, improved nutritional status and greater wealth affect negatively the supply of land into these markets. The potential exists for these markets to improve factor equalisation, reduce inequality in land holdings, and shift the income position of participating households. However, success depends on whether other factor markets are functioning to thwart forced disposal of land to meet subsistence. Public policy has pivotal role in fostering the growth of these markets and their land transfer and factor equalisation functions by ensuring their legally enforceable status, and removing legal restrictions that constrain choices of contracts and trading over greater distances. In addition, both long and short‐term policy measures are needed to reduce the extent to which poor farmers engage in distress transactions.