Profutures. The birth of the strategic prospective and futures studies international network for applied methodology

On 30 September and 1 October 1993, the European Commission's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (PROMPT) organized a meeting, in collaboration with LIPS-CNAM (the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective and Strategy of the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris), on the theme: ‘Methods and tools in strategic prospective: retrospective and perspectives’. The main outcome of this meeting, which brought together 23 international experts from the strategic prospective-futures studies field at the Ispra campus of the EC's joint Research Centre, was the creation of a new network, devoted to applied methodology, to be known as Profutures.     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Between Neoliberal Governance and the Right to the City: Participatory politics in Berlin and Tel Aviv

Based on a comparison of Berlin and Tel Aviv, this article investigates the ways in which ensembles of participatory instruments mediate between neoliberal urban regimes and political agency shaping differentially the meaning of participation and the types of claims that can be advanced. The article gives an overview of the recent history of both cities through the lens of participatory politics. Two in‐depth case studies further examine the relationship between participatory politics and claim making in each setting: the recent conflict over a social center in the district of Friedrichshain‐Kreuzberg in Berlin and the Levinsky tent city of 2011 in Tel Aviv. In the concluding section, the article suggests that, rather than assuming that participatory tools either co‐opt movements or can be appropriated by them, we need to rethink the relationship between participatory tools, rights and recognition, and ask how participatory structures and political agency constitute each other in interwoven dynamics.     

Liquidity and Arbitrage in Options Markets: A Survival Analysis Approach

This paper examines the determinants of the time it takes foran index options market to return to no arbitrage values afterput-call parity deviations, using intraday transactions datafrom the French index options market. We employ survival analysisto characterize how limits to arbitrage influence the expectedduration of arbitrage deviations. After controlling for conventionallimits to arbitrage, we show that liquidity-linked variablesare associated with a faster reversion of arbitrage profits.The introduction of an Exchange Traded Fund also affects thesurvival rates of deviations, but this impact essentially stemsfrom the reduction in the level of potential arbitrage profits.     

From quality to innovation: Evidence from two French Employer Surveys

In this article we investigate the impact of quality systems on innovation performance using the method of propensity matching. We use two French microeconomic surveys, the “Organizational Changes and Computerization” (COI 1997) and the “Community Innovation Survey” (CIS3 1998–2000). The first hypothesis indicating that quality (ISO 9000 certification) impacts positively on innovation is supported for certain areas of innovation performance. Furthermore, the second hypothesis states that different levels of quality differentially improve innovation performance. Results indicate that the innovation performance of firms with Top Quality Level is higher than that of firms with Medium Quality Level which is also higher than that of firms with Low Quality Level for certain areas of innovation. However, we found that the difference in innovation performance between firms with Medium and Low Quality Levels is not of a great magnitude. This study implies that in order to achieve a significant innovation performance improvement via quality systems, a very well-established quality system is needed within a firm.     

A structural model of US aggregate job flows

This paper contributes to the analysis of jobs flows dynamics through the explicit modelling of job creations and job destructions. We propose a simple matching model extended for endogenous separation and tractable heterogeneity. The parameters of the model are estimated using a simulation‐based estimation method. We then test the ability of trade externalities, generated by the matching process, to (i) propagate reallocation and aggregate disturbances in the whole labor market and (ii) generate the observed distribution of aggregate job flows. The results clearly indicate that the model is able to match the dynamics of US aggregate job flows. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants of individual investment decisions in investment‐based crowdfunding

We investigate determinants of investment decisions in investment‐based (equity and bond) crowdfunding campaigns, using a novel investment‐, investor‐ and campaign‐level database, where equity refers to investments in entrepreneurial start‐ups and bonds to large real estate projects. We find that investors who have higher social interactions invest more. Social interactions are important in an equity crowdfunding context but do not affect participation in bond investments. This is consistent with the view that investors' social networks help reduce information asymmetry. Women invest less in the riskiest (equity) investments but more in safer ones (bonds). These findings are better explained by differences in risk aversion than differences in overconfidence between men and women. Overall, the findings contribute to the understanding of how investment‐based crowdfunding can be a viable source of entrepreneurial finance and how entrepreneurs' campaign decisions affect investor participation in this new form of entrepreneurial finance.