Simplified Jackknife Variance Estimates for Fuzzy Measures of Multidimensional Poverty

In this paper, we present a practical methodology for variance estimation for multi‐dimensional measures of poverty and deprivation of households and individuals, derived from sample surveys with complex designs and fairly large sample sizes. The measures considered are based on fuzzy representation of individuals' propensity to deprivation in monetary and diverse non‐monetary dimensions. We believe this to be the first original contribution for estimating standard errors for such fuzzy poverty measures. The second objective is to describe and numerically illustrate computational procedures and difficulties in producing reliable and robust estimates of sampling error for such complex statistics. We attempt to identify some of these problems and provide solutions in the context of actual situations. A detailed application based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 19 NUTS2 regions in Spain is provided.     

An item response theory approach to constructing and evaluating brief and in-depth financial literacy scales

We applied item response theory (IRT) to construct and evaluate new brief and in-depth financial literacy scales. A survey of a UK adult sample (N = 589) included 50 questions to assess knowledge about managing financial resources and competence in using personal finance-related information—including five widely used items, on interest rates, inflation, investment diversification, mortgages and bonds. IRT applied to a scale of these items identified some limitations, overcome via further iterations to construct a new brief scale with sound psychometric properties. IRT was then applied iteratively to our pool, resulting in an in-depth, 20-item scale, also psychometrically sound, covering four broad financial domains: everyday money transactions; the concept of money; borrowing; and saving and investment. Parallel 10-item sub-scales were also evaluated. The validity of the new scales was demonstrated by regression analyses which found that, controlling for demographic variables, financial literacy predicted key indicators of financial well-being.     

Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns

Motivated by the common problem of constructing predictive distributions for daily asset returns over horizons of one to several trading days, this article introduces a new model for time series. This model is a generalization of the Markov normal mixture model in which the mixture components are themselves normal mixtures, and it is a specific case of an artificial neural network model with two hidden layers. The article uses the model to construct predictive distributions of daily S&P 500 returns 1971–2005 and one‐year maturity bond returns 1987–2007. For these time series the model compares favorably with ARCH and stochastic volatility models. The article concludes by using the model to form predictive distributions of one‐ to ten‐day returns during volatile episodes for the S&P 500 and bond return series. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual and place-based drivers of self-employment in Chile

This paper analyzes the importance of individual and place characteristics on the selection into self-employment in Chile. Following a structural and multilevel empirical approach, we test whether both sets of variables explain the variation of individual wages, self-employed earnings, and the propensity of being in independent work. The results indicate that while most of the variation in these three outcomes is explained by individuals’ traits, place-related variables account for a non-negligible share of spatial variation. Second, as suggested by occupational choice theories, the propensity of being in self-employment positively correlates with larger expected earning differentials, but only in the case of employers. This, along with other results, suggests that while employers seem to choose their occupational status, own accounts in Chile seem to respond to factors pushing them into self-employment.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy: The Italian Lira, 1883–1911

The three exchange rate regimes adopted by Italy from 1883 up to the eve of World War I — the gold standard (1883–1893), floating rates (1894–1902), and “gold shadowing” (1903–1911)—produced a puzzling result: formal adherence to the gold standard ended in failure while shadowing the gold standard proved very successful. This paper discusses the main policies underlying Italy’s performance particularly focusing on the strategy of reserve accumulation. It presents a cointegration analysis identifying a distinct co-movement between exchange rate, reserves, and banknotes that holds over the three sub-periods of the sample. Given this long-run relationship, the different performance in each regime is explained by the diversity of policy measures, reflected in the different variables adjusting the system in the various regimes. Italy’s variegated experience during the gold standard provides a valuable lesson about current developments in the international scenario, showing the central role of fundamentals and consistent policies.     

The demand for tobacco in post-unification Italy

This paper studies the demand for tobacco products in post-unification Italy. We construct a very detailed panel data set of yearly consumption in the 69 Italian provinces from 1871 to 1913 and use it to estimate the demand for tobacco products. We find support for the Becker and Murphy (J Polit Econ 96:675–700, 1988) rational addiction model. We also find that, in the period considered, tobacco was a normal good in Italy: aggregate tobacco consumption increased with income. Subsequently, we consider separately the four types of products which aggregate tobacco comprises (fine-cut tobacco, snuff, cigars, and cigarettes), and tentatively suggest that habit formation was a stronger factor on the persistence of consumption than physical addiction. The paper ends by showing that the introduction of the Bonsack machine in the early 1890s did not coincide with changes in the structure of the demand for tobacco, suggesting cost-driven technological change.     

Monetary Union, institutions and financial market integration: Italy, 1862–1905

Years into the single currency, EMU financial markets are not fully integrated. We argue that the phenomenon can be better understood by looking at financial markets’ behavior in the wake of Italy’s monetary unification (1862). Variables such as the spread of the telegraph, trade volumes, and the diffusion of the ‘single currency’ fail to explain why it took 25 years for prices across regional stock exchanges to converge. A single Italian financial market appeared only when the State prevailed upon local vested interests by enforcing nation-wide financial market legislation.     

Entry, Prices, and Investment in Regulated Industries

The paper studies how the optimal regulatory policy is affected by the possibility of unregulated firms entering the market. In such cases, the regulator may prefer to limit price and cost reductions in the regulated incumbent. The extent to which this happens is shown to depend on the extent of the regulator's commitment: if it commits to a chosen policy, then the market outcome following entry is less competitive than it would be without commitment: price and production costs are both higher. We also show that, unlike the natural monopoly case, incentives for cost reducing investment are stronger when the regulatory policy has a short regulatory interval.     

Risk and Capital Structure in the Regulated Firm

This paper studies the role of capital structure in a regulated firm. We show that it affects the prices set by the regulator, the expected price being lower the higher the proportion of debt finance. However, when debt is increased beyond a certain level, the benefit of lower expected prices is offset by their increased variability. We also study the socially preferred capital structure. This is such that consumers carry some risk, in the form of higher prices in adverse economic conditions.     

Economic impact of onabotulinumtoxinA for overactive bladder with urinary incontinence in Europe

Background: Overactive bladder (OAB) is a common condition that has a significant impact on patients’ health-related quality-of-life and is associated with a substantial economic burden to healthcare systems. OnabotulinumtoxinA has a well-established efficacy and safety profile as a treatment for OAB; however, the economic impact of using onabotulinumtoxinA has not been well described.

Methods: An economic model was developed to assess the budget impact associated with OAB treatment in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, using onabotulinumtoxinA alongside best supportive care (BSC)—comprising incontinence pads and/or anticholinergic use and/or clean intermittent catheterisation (CIC)—vs BSC alone. The model time horizon spanned 5 years, and included direct costs associated with treatment, BSC, and adverse events.

Results: Per 100,000 patients in each country, the use of onabotulinumtoxinA resulted in estimated cost savings of €97,200 (Italy), €71,580 (Spain), and €19,710 (UK), and cost increases of €23,840 in France and €284,760 in Germany, largely due to day-case and inpatient administration, respectively. Projecting these results to the population of individuals aged 18 years and above gave national budget saving estimates of €9,924,790, €27,458,290, and €48,270,760, for the UK, Spain, and Italy, respectively, compared to cost increases of €12,160,020 and €196,086,530 for France and Germany, respectively. Anticholinergic treatment and incontinence pads were the largest contributors to overall spending on OAB management when onabotulinumtoxinA use was not increased, and remained so in four of five scenarios where onabotulinumtoxinA use was increased. This decreased resource use was equivalent to cost offsets ranging from €106,110 to €176,600 per 100,000 population.

Conclusions: In three of five countries investigated, the use of onabotulinumtoxinA, in addition to BSC, was shown to result in healthcare budget cost savings over 5 years. Scenario analyses showed increased costs in Germany and France were largely attributable to the treatment setting rather than onabotulinumtoxinA acquisition costs.