Unemployment assistance in Hungary

Low outflow rates from unemployment and cuts in benefit entitlement periods resulted in sharp reductions in the coverage by Unemployment Insurance of the unemployed stock in Central and Eastern European countries during the 1990s. From mid-1994 in Hungary the most common benefit received by the registered unemployed stock is means-tested Unemployment Assistance (UA) but so far very little is known about its receipt. In the paper, using microdata from the unemployment register we investigate the operation of the UA scheme in Hungary, including the benefit levels, the characteristics of benefit recipients and the determinants of flows to and from receipt.     

Asymptotic inference for a one-dimensional simultaneous autoregressive model

A nonstationary simultaneous autoregressive model \({X^{(n)}_k=\alpha \Big(X^{(n)}_{k-1}+X^{(n)}_{k+1}\Big)+\varepsilon_k, k=1, 2, \ldots , n-1}\), is investigated, where \({X^{(n)}_0}\) and \({X^{(n)}_n}\) are given random variables. It is shown that in the unstable case α = 1/2 the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter converges to a functional of a standard Wiener process with a rate of convergence n ², while in the stable situation |α| < 1/2 the estimator is biased but asymptotically normal with a rate n ^1/2.     

The Increasing Importance of Geoeconomics in Power Rivalries in the Twenty-First Century

Relations between states in the post-Cold War period have been shaped by an increased economic competition including ‘non-market’ factors such as intelligence sharing between state agencies and private businesses, successful economic diplomacy and different techniques to influence and manipulate non-governmental organisations to weaken an economic adversary, among other things. The considerable influence of these non-market factors illustrates the limits of the liberal economic theories that emphasise the dominant role of market forces. Geoeconomics is an interdisciplinary analysis that includes geopolitical factors, economic intelligence, strategic analysis and foresight and has the objective to provide a tool for states and businesses to develop and implement successful strategies to conquer markets, and protect strategic segments of the domestic economy, among other things. This article argues about the growing significance of geoeconomics in contemporary power rivalries, presents some strategic aspects of the role of state in the establishment and coordination of a national geoeconomic disposition, and highlights briefly the importance of the strategic management of information to support geoeconomic strategies. Some arguments of the article ‘Geoeconomic Analysis and the Limits of Critical Geopolitics: A New Engagement with Edward Luttwak’ are briefly discussed as well.     

Revisiting the theory of production competence: Extensions and cross-validations

This paper examines a widely cited work in operations management, the theory of production competence, advanced initially by Cleveland, Schroeder, and Anderson (CSA). This intuitively appealing proposition asserts that production competence leads to improved business performance. However, CSA's empirical work has been criticized by Vickery and her collaborators and by Safizadeh, Ritzman, and Mallick (SRM). Moreover, SRM's own empirical work suggested that the CSA proposition only holds for batch processes. Using data from two large studies, we avoid the problems that plagued CSA's analysis, improve on their result, and call into question the SRM finding that restricts that result to batch operations.     

On the asymptotic behaviour of the Stringer bound1

The Stringer bound is a widely used nonparametric 100(1 -α)% upper confidence bound for the fraction of errors in an accounting population. This bound has been found in practice to be rather conservative, but no rigorous mathematical proof of the correctness of the Stringer bound as an upper confidence bound is known and also no counterexamples are available. In a pioneering paper Bickel (1992) has given some fixed sample support to the bound's conservatism together with an asymptotic expansion in probability of the Stringer bound, which has led to his claim of the asymptotic conservatism of the Stringer bound. In the present paper we obtain expansions of arbitrary order of the coefficients in the Stringer bound. As a consequence we obtain Bickel's asymptotic expansion with probability 1 and we show that the asymptotic conservatism holds for confidence levels 1 -α, with α∈ (0,1/2]. It means that in general also in a finite sampling situation the Stringer bound does not necessarily have the right confidence level. Based on our expansions we propose a modified Stringer bound which has asymptotically precisely the right nominal confidence level. Finally, we discuss other consequences of the expansions of the Stringer bound such as a central limit theorem, a law of the iterated logarithm and the functional versions of them.     

The effect of monitoring unemployment insurance recipients on unemployment duration: Evidence from a field experiment

Programme administration is a relatively neglected issue in the analysis of disincentive effects of unemployment benefit systems. We investigate this issue with a field experiment in Hungary involving random assignment of benefit claimants to treatment and control groups. Treatment increases the monitoring of claims — claimants make more frequent visits to the employment office and face questioning about their search behaviour. Treatment has quite a large effect on durations on benefit of women aged 30 and over, while we find no effect for younger women or men.     

Revealed preferences: A topological approach

The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the axiomatic foundations of revealed preference theory and the continuity properties of choice. The main result of this paper shows that the continuity of a set-to-point choice function is equivalent to the weak axiom of revealed preference and openness of the strict revealed relation, provided that the collection of budget sets is endowed with a topology used widely by economists.