Economics at the Antitrust Division: 2017–2018

This article describes some of the work of Antitrust Division economists over the past year, with a focus on modeling. It begins by illustrating the mapping from evidence to prediction using tools for assessing the effects of mergers using Bertrand, Cournot, and auction models. It then turns to two hot topics in competition policy: the implications of claims of increasing margins for merger enforcement and the validity of claims of increasing concentration. Finally, it considers how mergers affect prices in bargaining models.     

Bank credit,public financial incentives,tax financial incentives and export performance during the global financial crisis

This paper investigates the extent to which access to credit, public financial incentives and tax financial incentives affect export performance using the EU-EFIGE/Bruegel-Unicredit data set, covering firms within Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and the UK during the 2008 global financial crisis. The results show that firms receiving credit or benefiting from public financial incentives display higher export intensity and export a greater number of product lines compared to those that did not, especially in countries with better access to credit and/or financial incentives during the crisis. Further, firms benefiting from tax financial incentives show a better export performance compared to those that did not, regardless of the degree of access to credit and/or financial incentives in the country in which they operate. In addition, the effect of access to credit and public finance incentives on export performance is found to be size-dependent, while the effect of tax financial incentives is not. We suggest that governments should promote publicly funded financial incentives along with conventional schemes, such as R&D subsidies, to promote exports, particularly during a period of financial crisis.     

How many factors are important in U.K. stock returns?

I use the sequential approach of Harvey and Liu ([2018]. Lucky factors (Working Paper). Duke University) to build linear factor models in U.K. stock returns among a set of 13 candidate factors using individual stocks and three groups of test portfolios between July 1983 and December 2017. My study finds that the Market factor is the dominant factor in reducing mispricing in individual stocks and test portfolios regardless of the pricing error metric used. The Market factor has a bigger impact when using a value weighting pricing error metric. Whether a second factor is used or not depends upon which metric is used for mispricing and the time period examined. My study finds support for a two-factor model for the whole sample period of the Market factor and the Conservative Minus Aggressive (CMA) factor of Fama and French ([2015]. “A five-factor asset pricing model.” Journal of Financial Economics 116: 1–22) when giving greater weight to the mispricing of larger companies.     

Do retail mergers affect competition? Evidence from grocery retailing

This study estimates the price effects of horizontal mergers in the U.S. grocery retailing industry. We examine fourteen regions affected by mergers, including mergers in highly concentrated and relatively unconcentrated markets. We identify price effects by comparing markets affected by mergers to unaffected markets using difference‐in‐difference estimation with three different comparison groups, propensity score weights, and by using the synthetic control method. Our results are robust to the choice of control group and estimation technique. We find that mergers in highly concentrated markets are most frequently associated with price increases, and mergers in less concentrated markets are most often associated with price decreases.     

Climate Change,Innovation, and Economic Growth: The Contributions of William Nordhaus and Paul Romer

ABSTRACT

William Nordhaus and Paul Romer shared the 2018 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for their work on long-run macroeconomic analysis. Nordhaus adapted the neoclassical growth model to study climate change, while Romer developed a model of innovation-based growth. The authors provide two distinct explanations of what drives growth, and employ contrasting methodologies for interpreting the results of their mathematical models. Macroeconomic policy in general, and climate policy in particular, would benefit from better integrating the theory and methods of these two laureates.     

Fluctuating levels of personal role engagement within the working day: A multilevel study

In this diary study, we examined a theoretical model in which the psychological conditions of meaningfulness, availability, and safety serve as mechanisms through which the work context during discrete situations within the workday influences “state” engagement. We further theorised that a person's “trait” level of engagement would exert cross‐level effects on the state level relationships. Multilevel analyses based on a sample of 124 individuals in six organisations and 1,446 situational observations revealed that meaningfulness and availability (but not safety) mediated the relationships between perceptions of the work context and state engagement. High levels of trait engagement strengthened the within‐person relation between availability and state engagement, yet weakened the within‐person relation between meaningfulness and state engagement, suggesting two different processes may be at play. Overall, the findings advance our understanding of engagement as a multilevel and temporally dynamic psychological phenomenon and promote a contextually based HRM approach to facilitating engagement.     

Do optimal diversification strategies outperform the 1/N strategy in U.K. stock returns?

This paper examines whether optimal diversification strategies outperform the 1/N strategy in U.K. stock returns. The study focuses on the performance of recent strategies developed by Tu and Zhou (2011) and Kirby and Ostdiek (2010). I find that a number of optimal asset allocation strategies can significantly outperform the 1/N strategy even after adjusting for trading costs. The strategies developed by Kirby and Ostdiek outperform the 1/N strategy, even at higher trading costs, due to the low turnover of these strategies. The strategies of Tu and Zhou have mixed performance after adjusting for trading costs due to the high turnover of these strategies. The results of the paper provide support for the use of optimal diversification strategies.