Primary education and fertility rates

Unified growth theory advances that the transition from a Malthusian regime to sustained economic growth is characterized by technological progress and, amongst other things, by an increase in demand for human capital which in turn creates incentives for lower fertility rates. Bearing that in mind, I ask the question: has southern Africa escaped the Malthusian stagnation? Specifically, I study whether primary school completion rates have played any role in total fertility rates in all countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the 1980–2009 period. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the results, based on dynamic panel time‐series methods, suggest that primary education is associated with lower fertility in the SADC, or that the community is already trading‐off quantity for quality of children. Although I do not claim causality, overall the results are significant because, in accordance with unified growth theory, they suggest that the SADC is experiencing its own transition from the Malthusian stagnation epoch into sustained growth, or that the SADC is going through its own post‐Malthusian regime.     

Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy: An Event Study Analysis of the Brazilian Case

This article examines the relationship between the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil and the stock market. We implement event study analysis and analyze the effect of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy decisions on the returns of the IBOVESPA index and 53 stocks. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect on the stock market, but is only responsible for a small proportion of market variation. The analysis at the sector level with expected returns identifies that the financial sector is the most affected by this policy, whereas with excess returns only industrial goods are significantly affected. Moreover, individual assets respond in a rather heterogeneous fashion to monetary policy; however, when we look at excess returns, we identify a reduction in the intensity and in the number of companies impacted by monetary policy. Finally, the monetary shock is explained by unanticipated variations in the unemployment rate, in the Industrial Production Index, in the General Market Price Index, and in the Broad Consumer Price Index.     

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES ON THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY USING AN SCGE MODEL

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Brazilian economy. We present a two-sector, open-economy, Structuralist Computable General Equilibrium model that distinguishes among three economic classes and assumes no financial sector. The Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2006 serves as a benchmark for our model. We compare the medium-run effects of five experiments: an income transfer towards formal workers, a transfer to informal labour, an investment shock, an exchange rate depreciation, and a policy mix that combines (exchange rate) depreciation with income transfer towards modern (sector) workers. The policy measures reinforce each other in terms of their potential to enhance growth. Our findings underscore the importance of redistributive policies to foster economic expansion.     

When deeds speak,words are nothing: a study of ethical leadership in Colombia

Using a sample of 124 managers and 248 subordinates, this study examines the mediating effect of subordinates’ job satisfaction in the relationship between ethical leadership and subordinate organizational citizenship and counter‐productive work behaviour in the Colombian context. We additionally analyse the effect of ethical leadership on subordinates’ perception of leaders’ performance. Factor analyses of the ethical leadership scale revealed two factors, ethical person (EP) and ethical guidance (EG), which were differentially associated to the outcomes. We offer an explanation from three cultural dimensions (in‐group collectivism, institutional collectivism, and power distance) by which Colombian employees seem to be more willing to follow leaders’ ethical example as a way to strengthen their membership to the leader's group, than leaders ethical disciplining by which norms are imposed. These findings have a number of implications for organizations and managers who aim to improve their employees’ behaviour. Our advice to them is that leaders’ deeds have a greater impact than their ethical words.     

The "New" Stability and Growth Pact: More Flexible,Less Stupid?

The doubts and criticisms with regard to the fiscal discipline imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) have been many and varied, and the SGP was revised as a result. The following paper evaluates the changes contained in the "new" SGP by considering the properties for ideal fiscal rules put forward by Kopits and Symansky. The analysis points towards a clear increase in flexibility together with the probable emergence of new enforcement problems. In this context, the need for new improvements within the European framework for the definition and implementation of national fiscal policies is discussed.     

Implications of firm experiential knowledge and sequential FDI on performance of Japanese subsidiaries in Brazil

A foreign firm investing in a culturally different market usually faces a certain level of uncertainty. This study proposes that as a multinational company accumulates experiential knowledge, it develops more capabilities and know-how and consequently reflects on subsidiary performance. Based on a subsidiary level sample of Japanese firms located in Brazil, the empirical findings of this study demonstrate that the accumulation of both international and local experiential knowledge can positively affect subsidiary performance. Moreover, a firm’s sequential foreign direct investment decision in the local market is a key strategy to achieving a higher level of subsidiary profitability in comparison with a first-time investment firm.

The struggle for space: Past and future of the space race

This article is geared toward shedding some more light on what may be the next space race and its contours.Space flight is undoubtedly a human achievement of the second half of the 20th century, and probably the most audacious one of the past century. The space race started suddenly in the 1950s and has grown explosively during the following two decades, but decreased steadily after the 1970s. After the 1990s, however, we have seen a shy rebirth of space-related activities, when many other actors (states) entered the stage, adding up to the agonizing role of the two-actor piece that we have witnessed during the so-called Cold War.The opening years of the 21st century provided a more complex narrative for space exploration. At the start of the new millennium a new technosphere [1] emerged, dominated by what is used to be called as the Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), with the Internet playing the leading role among the bandwagon of technological novelties that appeared during the twilight of space activities. In despite of the fact that artificial satellites represent the very backbone of the global communications system, space activities seem to play a secondary role amidst the apparently accelerated rate of change concerning the technological systems of the present technosphere. But, as it is demonstrated in this paper, things are changing, and very probably a renewed space race will unfold in the coming decades.A question may be placed: what happened? Why the Earth stood still with regard to the race toward the cosmos? Answer: futurists, even prestigious ones like Herman Kahn and Arthur Clarke, did not consider the existence of socioeconomic long waves (Kondratieff waves, or K-waves for short) with their two decades long economic downturn, which has contributed to the deceleration of space-related activities.Analyzing the worldwide evolving scenario of space-related activities during the last eighty years under the framework of the succeeding K-waves and applying some technological forecasting tools, namely the logistic analysis, technological surveillance and intensive data mining, scrutinizing more than 7500 events occurred in the period 1930–2010 related with space activities, it is demonstrated that the space race like the one that we have witnessed until now is a natural growth process that has saturated at the dawn of this century. The same analysis demonstrates that a new growth process in this field might be nowadays under way with contours very different from that imagined by futurists and science fiction writers sixty years ago. Also the main trends in the usage of launching vehicles and satellites are framed and discussed in this paper.     

Can the North–South trade regime explain intra- and inter-country productivity differences?

The literature identifies North–South disparities in Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which, in turn, justify the bulk of international income differences. By building a dynamic, general equilibrium model of North–South technological-knowledge diffusion with scale-invariant growth, we extend the literature in several directions: (i) growth is driven by Schumpeterian R&D and by high and low-skilled human-capital accumulation; (ii) three trade regimes are considered; (iii) sectoral and aggregate TFP measures are computed; (iv) the extent to which the North–South trade regime explains intra-country TFP and inter-country TFP differences is evaluated. In particular, the results suggest that intra-country TFP differences increase and inter-country TFP differences fall when countries are more interdependent.