The Effect of Overconfidence and Underconfidence on Consumer Value

Although the effect of knowledge miscalibration (i.e., the inaccuracy in subjective knowledge relative to objective knowledge) on consumer purchase decisions has been investigated, its effect in the usage stage of consumption is little understood. This paper examines the effect of knowledge miscalibration in terms of both overconfidence (i.e., when subjective knowledge is inflated) and underconfidence (i.e., when subjective knowledge is deflated) on the dimensions of consumer value (i.e., efficiency, excellence, play, and aesthetics). The paper makes the case that overconfidence and underconfidence should be treated separately as they trigger different consumption consequences. Several hypotheses are tested through two studies: a covariance‐based study (Study 1) and an experimental study (Study 2). In Study 1, overconfidence and underconfidence are measured, while in Study 2 they are experimentally manipulated. Findings of both studies show that underconfidence negatively influences efficiency, excellence, and aesthetics, and overconfidence negatively influences play. Also, Study 1 finds a negative effect of underconfidence on play and Study 2 finds a negative effect of overconfidence on excellence and aesthetics. Findings reveal that knowledge miscalibration negatively impacts consumers’ usage experiences. This implies that in designing product or service experiences suppliers benefit from ensuring that consumers achieve a reduced level of knowledge miscalibration.     

Willingness to compete: Between‐ and within‐gender comparisons

This paper introduces a new instrument to elicit individual willingness to compete (WTC). Experimental data corroborate the standard result according to which the average WTC of men is higher than the average WTC of women. However, our WTC measure reveals significant within‐gender heterogeneity: 10% of women are extremely competitive, and 13% of men are extremely averse to competition. Gender differences in WTC persist after controlling for ability, self‐confidence, tolerance for risk, and the gender of the partner.     

Team Production with Punishment Option: Insights from a Real‐Effort Experiment

This paper analyzes the consequences of allowing for punishment in a real‐effort pair production experiment. The behavior of the best performer in the team differs on whether he or she can impose a sanction on the less performing partner. When sanctions are not allowed, good performers reduce their effort in response to the advantageous difference in scores; when they can impose sanctions, their change in effort is no longer related to the difference in scores. To some extent, a sanction mechanism allows good performers to focus on their own performance. In the case of costless sanctions, not sanctioning a partner who under‐performs, what we refer to as forgiveness, prompts the latter to improve his or her performance, but applying the sanction has a stronger push effect. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Four myths and a financial crisis

The main driving force of the financial crisis of 2007‐2009 was a rapid deterioration of the trust of private agents in the quality of financial institutions. In turn, this loss of confidence entailed a sharp decline in many asset prices and brought to their knees several large financial institutions with centennial traditions. This article surveys the critical moments of the crisis, presents some of the shock‐amplifying mechanisms, and comments on the effectiveness of various policy measures. We point out four conceptual myths that did not survive this crisis. The conclusion opens the debate on what structural changes in the existing financial architecture are required to contain such crises in the future. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The rest of me

iPhone Siri demonstratively introduced natural language processing. Still a gadget, the idea revived one of the old promises of computers as personal assistants. Does it have the potential of fulfilling the already burgeoning imagination related to this promise? The authors believe that, while still dependent on the evolution of artificial intelligence, the virtual assistant may find support in the already maturing technologies of augmented reality and, more important, in the changing global network with the semantic web, Internet of things and geo-location. Bluntly speaking, its feasibility and acceptability may not even have to wait for the promised IBM computer with human brain capabilities, but rather build on a more friendly interaction with the Google search engine.The article provides a narrative scenario of the deep economic and social transformations and even turbulence that the so called imaginary friend may produce. Not discarding, but creatively integrating some of the archetypes of futuristic literature, the story positions these entities as the foreground of a deep integration of networks, with the added turmoil caused by economic interests that go beyond individuals’ sense-making capacity.This article is one of the follow-ups of the international foresight workshop “Crazy futures” coordinated by Ziauddin Sardar and George Cairns in a small resort on the Danube Delta in July 2011, a workshop organised as part of the project Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education.     

Remittances as a social status signaling device

Like all human beings, migrants may have a concern about their prestige or social status in the eyes of left-home family and friends. They can remit money in order to signal their economic success and increase their status. We show that if migrants’ income is private information, unsuccessful migrants might accept a worsening of their living conditions and send back home large amounts of remittances only in order to make residents believe that they are successful. In some cases, successful migrants can signal their true favorable economic situation by remitting an even larger amount. The game presents various equilibria that differ with respect to the proportion and nature of the migrants who sacrifice consumption opportunities to status revealing actions.     

Convergence and performance of the peeling wavelet denoising algorithm

This note is devoted to an analysis of the so-called peeling algorithm in wavelet denoising. Assuming that the wavelet coefficients of the useful signal are modeled by generalized Gaussian random variables and its noisy part by independent Gaussian variables, we compute a critical thresholding constant for the algorithm, which depends on the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution. We also quantify the optimal number of steps which have to be performed, and analyze the convergence of the algorithm. Several implementations are tested against classical wavelet denoising procedures on benchmark and simulated biological signals.     

Equilibrium among local jurisdictions: toward an integrated treatment of voting and residential choice

In models of local public goods with mobile consumers, existence of equilibrium is problematic. Difficulties with existence of equilibrium that arise in models with discrete locations and in models with voting are compounded when both features are introduced into the same model. We present conditions under which equilibrium exists in a model where freely mobile households choose community of residence and amount of housing consumption, and vote on the level of public goods provision. These conditions involve restrictions on preferences and the technology of public goods supply. At least some of these conditions appear consistent with empirical observations. We discuss the implications of the conditions, and their role in assuring existence of equilibrium. A series of computational examples provide illustrations of the way these conditions interact, and the difficulties that must be confronted if they are to be relaxed.