名义负利率传导机理与传导效果:文献综述

在全球经济复苏乏力、新冠疫情持续冲击的背景下,名义负利率政策再度成为热议话题.本文在简要梳理主要国家的政策实践后,系统介绍了名义负利率政策的传导机理和传导效果,并讨论了其主要争议与未来展望.总的来说,名义负利率政策与传统利率政策的传导机理大致相同,仅在政策调控模式和操作工具等方面略显差异.名义负利率政策在调节汇率方面表现出色,在传导效率和对金融机构的影响方面存在争议,短期内在提振通胀方面略见成效,长期内可能存在着扭曲经济结构等多方面的非线性影响.名义负利率的政策实践具有很强的借鉴意义,其长期效果及退出等问题有待进一步研究.未来可结合数字货币的应用,对负利率的下限问题作进一步分析.     

Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper explores economic, political and institutional determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 2000 to 2013 and compares discretionary fiscal reactions before and during the global economic crisis. We find that fiscal policy was procyclical to the output gap both before and during the crisis, while no fiscal reaction to the absorption gap was captured. Our results also indicate a negative relationship between the level of public debt and deficits over the entire period and the pre-crisis period, suggesting that rising public debt represented a brake on future deficits. We also find that election cycles affect the fiscal deficit, but only during the pre-crisis period, while no evidence of a relationship between fiscal policy and government fragmentation was captured. We find some evidence that in the pre-crisis period the CEE countries with a fixed exchange rate regime ran lower deficits than those with a floating regime, whereas during the crisis no impact of the exchange rate regime on the fiscal deficit was found. There is also some evidence that an arrangement with the IMF was associated with lower deficits for the entire sample period. However, no impact of EU accession on the fiscal stance was identified.     

Understanding the adoption of project management in Serbian organizations: Insights from an exploratory study

The article contributes to our understanding of the drivers behind, and the nature of, project management implementation in the complex context of a transitional economy. Relevant insights are generated through an integrated and dynamic analysis of interviews and secondary data from a sample of local organizations, based on a conceptual model of strategic transformation. The analysis concludes with propositions about how both adoption of and resistance to project management implementation in the region could be understood from a strategic point of view, taking into account complex and dissonant circumstances of transition, history, cultural tradition, embedded social values, and identities of individual organizational members.