A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

家族企业代际隐性知识的双向流动机制——基于跨代转型创业视角的多案例研究

经济转型升级背景下,仅继承家族既有隐性知识不足以实现家族企业跨代发展,继承人还需引入并逆向传递异质性隐性知识,从而借助父辈权威打破企业成长边界.利用多案例研究方法,通过对比分析三个中国家族企业的代际传承案例,识别并检验了跨代转型创业视角下家族企业隐性知识的双向流动性及内在传递逻辑,归纳了隐性知识在代际传承过程中的双向传递机制.研究表明,在保证传统的传承人向继承人传递隐性知识的前提下,跨代转型创业还有助于推动隐性知识的逆向传递,从而使继承人的管理思想得以在传承人的帮扶下融入家族企业,进而在两代人隐性知识相互调适和融合的情景下保障家族企业的成功传承和跨代成长.     

地方政府隐性债务与企业研发——自中国非金融上市公司的证据

地方隐性债务的无序扩张会削弱中国经济的长期发展动能.面对隐性债务规模的不断膨胀和企业研发活动增速的下降,很多经济观察者产生了这样的疑问,过高的地方债务水平是否会抑制微观企业的创新?这一影响的潜在作用机制是什么?文章基于2008年至2017年非金融业上市公司数据和手工搜集的地方政府隐性债务数据,考察地方政府隐性债务水平对微观企业研发活动的影响.实证结果显示,较高的城市隐性债务水平抑制了当地企业的专利申请数量,但对研发投入的影响不确定,这表明隐性债务水平降低了企业的创新效率.机制分析显示,政府(研发)补贴和长期外部信贷的减少是"抑制作用"产生的潜在机制.最后,文章还对实证结果进行了异质性分析和稳健性检验.文章的研究对深入理解地方政府隐性债务对实体经济的影响具有一定现实意义.     

江苏茶叶生产成本、规模及问题分析

对茶叶生产问题的研究有利于茶叶产业的发展与转型升级,通过运用2008—2017年间茶叶生产相关统计数据,论文以生产成本和生产规模为切入点,详细阐明江苏苏南和苏北地区的茶叶生产成本和规模的差异,深入剖析江苏茶叶生产中所出现的宏观问题,并据此提出对策与建议:加大扶持力度、培育龙头企业、提升茶农专业知识水平和开发茶文化旅游,以此助推乡村振兴政策的进一步实施和茶产业发展再上新台阶。     

Policy Dimensions of Progressive Institutional Change: Lessons from China’s Construction of a Socialist Market Economy

Abstract:

Through a comprehensive review of the progressive institutional change (PIC) literature, I first discuss four possible trajectories of PIC by considering the forces of societal reaction that might frame the path, as well as the scale and scope of the changes. Thus, I pose four questions that need to be asked when related policies are formulated for PIC. To illustrate this method, I scrutinize the evidence from the construction of a socialist market economy by the Chinese government since the 1980s and argue that related policies have successfully promoted PIC from three dimensions: (1) curbing potential conflicts with power groups; (2) promoting a sense of awareness among stakeholders; and (3) minimizing disturbances to the community. Actually, the related changes demonstrate a dynamic “displacement process” for PICs. Despite the success of this sociosystem, it is found that the sustaining of PIC which requires policy factors that enhance instrumental efficiency in the Chinese context will serve as a challenge to the Chinese government ahead.     

重大疫情对应急物流系统建设的启示

新型冠状病毒引发重大疫情,暴露出众多的物流问题,针对“急”和“乱”这两个应急物流的主要特点,从业务、管理(执行)、技术三个层面提出建设应急物流系统的新思想,即采用平战结合、军民融合的建设方法,重点建设全国统一的应急响应物流信息平台,运用大数据、AI等技术手段,快速完成物流需求分析,充分应用自动化、智能化和无人机、机器人等先进技术手段,培养一支技术全面的国家队伍,完成应急物流的快速响应。     

Fund selection,style allocation,and active management abilities: Evidence from funds of hedge funds’ holdings

This study examines whether funds of hedge funds (FOHFs) provide superior before-fee performance through managers’ fund selection, style allocation, and active management abilities. Using reported holdings of Securities and Exchange Commission–registered FOHFs, we find that FOHF managers have fund selection abilities, as hedge funds held by FOHFs outperform their style indices and over half of the individual hedge funds in the Lipper Trading Advisor Selection System (TASS) database. We also find that FOHF managers add value through active management of FOHFs’ holdings, while evidence on their style allocation abilities is mixed. Our findings suggest that FOHFs generate superior before-fee performance and that FOHF managers’ skillset is broader than previously documented. Thus, our study helps explain why FOHFs continue to survive and suggests that FOHF fee structure reform merits consideration.     

Effects of investor tax heterogeneity on stock prices and trading behaviour around the ex-dividend day: the case of Australia

Using a sample of Australian stocks during the 1996–2014 period, this study examines how tax heterogeneity between domestic and foreign investors affects trading behaviour and stock prices around the ex-dividend day. Domestic investors prefer dividends and tend to buy stocks cum-dividend and sell them ex-dividend whereas foreign investors tend to trade in the opposite direction. Abnormal trading turnover increases with tax heterogeneity. Moreover, stocks with a larger domestic investor base are associated with a higher price drop-off ratio on the ex-dividend day and higher market value of franking credits. Overall, our findings support the dynamic dividend clientele hypothesis.     

淮扬饮食文化的特点及发展路径探究

淮扬历史文化悠久,塑造了独特的饮食文化,其"精""雅""养"的饮食文化特质,成为中国饮食文化中的独特元素.在新的时代环境之下实现新的发展,这是淮扬饮食文化发展的内在需求.本文立足淮扬饮食文化特点,分析了其发展中面临的问题,并在此基础之上,从推动饮食文化创新、推动饮食产业发展、打造市场品牌影响力、实施"饮食+"措施等方面,阐述了淮扬饮食文化发展的路径.