The Joint Effect of Ethical Idealism and Trait Skepticism on Auditors’ Fraud Detection

Journal of Business Ethics - Although regulators have identified ethical lapses as a key factor contributing to auditors’ failure to detect their clients’ fraudulent financial reporting...     

Forecasting Bordeaux wine prices using state-space methods

Generic Bordeaux red wine (basic claret) can be regarded as being similar to an agricultural commodity. Production volumes are substantial, they are traded at high frequency and the quality of the product is relatively homogeneous. Unlike other commodities and the top-end wines (which represent only 3% of the traded volume), there is no futures market for generic Bordeaux wine. Reliable forecasts of prices can to large extent replace this information deficiency and improve the functioning of the market. We use state-space methods with monthly data to obtain a univariate forecasting model for the average price. The estimates highlight the stochastic trend and the seasonality present in the evolution of the price over the period 1999 to 2016. The model predicts the path of wine prices out of sample reasonably well, suggesting that this approach is useful for making reasonably accurate forecasts of future price movements.     

Ready for the Revolution? Why Publishing Consumer Research Is Changing

Thirty‐five years after completing my Ph.D. at the University of Maryland, publishing academic research on consumer well‐being, or any field for that matter, is on the precipitous of major changes that will make it almost unrecognizable during Gen‐Y's scholarly lifetime. There are many possible causes, from technological advancements in publishing to transdisciplinary ways of fostering research. Regardless, how we think, write, read, and review scholarship is undergoing massive reform. We ignore them at our own peril and must reconsider important aspects of our lives as educators, researchers, and citizens.     

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear,asymmetric panel-data evidence

This paper re-examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit-root procedures. The new developments incorporate non-linearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional dependence.     

How efficient is the market for Australian firms’ earnings information?

We construct a measure of the speed with which forecasts issued by sell-side analysts accurately forecast future annual earnings. Following Marshall, we label this measure earnings information flow timeliness (EIFT). This measure avoids the aggregation problem inherent in price-based measures of information efficiency. We document large variation in EIFT across firm-years, and show that EIFT is positively associated with the extent of analyst following, consistent with increased analyst coverage improving the speed with which earnings-related information is recognised. We also find that EIFT is higher for firm-years classified as ‘bad news’ (i.e., where analysts’ forecasts at the start of the financial period exceed the reported outcome). However, when we separately consider instances where analysts appear to forecast non-GAAP (or ‘street’) earnings rather than GAAP earnings, we find that the greater timeliness of bad news is concentrated among observations where analysts forecast non-GAAP earnings, where unusual items are typically excluded. We conclude that the market for accounting information is more efficient for negative operating outcomes than for negative outcomes reflecting unusual items.     

Does peer group size influence social preferences and risk taking?

This paper examines whether the ex post relative payoffs of peers as well as the size of the peer group impact an agent's willingness to take risks. For example, persons in a flood plain may be less likely to purchase flood insurance if their neighbors also refrain from purchasing. We generalize the Fehr‐Schmidt (1999) model to allow the intensity of the social preferences to vary with the size of the peer group. Our experiment tests whether subjects are more or less likely to choose a lottery over a fixed payment when others have been assigned either the same lottery or the fixed payment. Using both between and within subject designs, we find risk‐taking behaviour is not responsive to the risks faced by others regardless of the size of peer group.     

Labor and behavior determinants of remittances in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is the second largest sender of international remittances. These remittances constitute large foreign capital inflows to labor‐exporting remittee economies. This study is the first to structurally decompose remittance dynamics into behavioral and labor market outcomes of migrants. Remittance outflows are decomposed into migrant labor supply, unemployment and participation rates, wage earnings, and the marginal propensity to remit (MPR) out of migrant earnings. The estimates suggest that migrant labor supply is highly elastic. The important driver of remittance dynamics is the MPR, migrant wages, and the labor supply of migrants. The MPR is found to respond counter‐cyclically to foreign gross domestic product.     

Promoting competition and protecting customers? Regulation of the GB retail energy market 2008–2016

Journal of Regulatory Economics - In 1999 the GB retail energy market was open to competition for residential customers. In 2008 Ofgem began a series of regulatory interventions, notably a...