An instrumental variable approach to distinguishing perceptions from preferences for beer brands

Recent developments in behavioral economics have prompted interest in identifying how product perceptions and beliefs influence decision making. Using a branded discrete choice experiment for beer, this article uses the control function approach and plausible instruments to correct for the endogeneity problem in a way that is applicable in a wide range of circumstances. Even after correction, we find that perceptions substantially affect consumer choices. In the context of brand equity for beer brands, we find that the perceived taste and brand familiarity are key determinants of choice.     

EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Searching for Goldilocks: The Distance‐Based Capitalization Effects of Local Public Services

This article empirically models the effect of distance on residential property values of three different types of services, fire, police and emergency medical services. Interesting economic trade‐offs emerge as service station proximity provides both amenity and disamenity effects. Using over three million home sales from the state of Florida along with two different measures of distance, this study provides evidence of nonlinear capitalization effects on local housing values. A difference‐in‐difference model utilizing new facility construction provides corroborating evidence of these findings.     

Consumer Self-Confidence in Wine Consumers: The Role of Knowledge-Based Factors

This study uses the Wine Self-Confidence Scale (WSCS) with a sample of 297 customers of ABC Fine Wine and Spirits, a Florida-based retailer, to examine aspects of self-confidence in wine purchasing. The results indicate that two knowledge-based self-confidence factors (information knowledge and persuasion knowledge) were predominant for these consumers. The study showed strong support for the WSCS, which was developed as a measure of self-confidence in wine buying by Olsen, Thompson, and Clarke (2003) and how these relate to reliance on personal experience.     

Japanese managerial and organizational learning

The article describes how the external forces of Japanese culture, industrial organization, and government intervention support managerial and organizational learning. It provides an overview of the culturally explicit philosophies that govern and stimulate learning in Japan, then explains how these philosophies are exhibited in Japanese management practice today. A model is presented which demonstrates the relationships among external forces, philosophical origins, management practice, and managerial and organizational learning. The conclusion is that managerial and organizational learning constitute one of Japan's most valuable competitive advantages. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Housework and the Wages of Young, Middle-Aged, and Older Workers

This article uses samples of young, middle-aged, and older married workers drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine whether the effect of housework time on wages differs among these age groups. Results from OLS, fixed effects, and panel data instrumental variables models show that young and middle-aged wives are the only groups for which the authors find consistent evidence of a housework effect on wages. Each additional hour of housework reduces their wages by 0.1–0.4%. Additionally, the analysis finds evidence that for young workers, housework time is an important determinant of the male/female wage gap. (JEL J16 , J22 , J31 )     

Computational techniques for analysis of system dynamics models of social systems

This paper presents a methodology for analysis of system dynamics models of social systems. The methodology consists of computational algorithms Specifically, the computational techniques of sensitivity analysis as extended to system dynamics models are shown to enhance an understanding of model behavior and to contribute to considerations of model validity, whereas optimization analyses are shown to contribute to model utility and policy formulation.     

Keeping Public Institutions Invested in Tobacco

Increasingly through the 1990s, tobacco control advocates questioned the practice of public institutions investing in tobacco company stocks. The questioning was framed in at least three ways. First, is it ethical to fund public expenditures with profits from a product that causes addiction and disease? Second, is it sound social policy to derive public income from a product that increases healthcare costs and reduces worker productivity? Finally, is it sound fiscal policy to invest in an historically profitable industry facing multiplying legal and regulatory challenges? While the tobacco industry preferred to restrict discussion to the fiscal question, and offered an affirmative answer, its position was weakened by depressed stock prices brought on by actions of the industry as much as by tobacco control activism. As part of a campaign to restore its credibility as an investment vehicle with public fund managers, Philip Morris (PM) commissioned a report from the influential investment managers/advisors Wilshire Associates. However, Wilshire had only recently conducted such a study for the Washington State Investment Board (WSIB), assuring the board that the value tobacco stocks added to an investment portfolio – if any – was too small to be measured. Nonetheless, within a year, Wilshire produced a report for PM which appeared to laud the investment value of tobacco and to dismiss tobacco-excluded investment alternatives. This paper examines how Wilshire produced apparently diametrically opposed reports for clients with different interests. It reveals a pattern of potential conflicts of interest among tobacco companies, financial analysis firms, investment authorities, and institutional fund managers. It demonstrates substantial violations of two generally accepted ethical principles of business consulting: veracity and transparency.     

The dawn of the e-lance economy

Will the large industrial corporation dominate the twenty-first century as it did the twentieth? Maybe not. Drawing on their research at MIT's Initiative on Inventing the Organizations of the 21st Century, Thomas Malone and Robert Laubacher postulate a world in which business is not controlled through a stable chain of management in a large, permanent company. Rather, it is carried out autonomously by independent contractors connected through personal computers and electronic networks. These electronically connected free-lancers-e-lancers-would join together into fluid and temporary networks to produce and sell goods and services. When the job is done--after a day, a month, a year--the network would dissolve and its members would again become independent agents. Far from being a wild hypothesis, the e-lance economy is, in many ways, already upon us. We see it in the rise of outsourcing and telecommuting, in the increasing importance within corporations of ad-hoc project teams, and in the evolution of the Internet. Most of the necessary building blocks of this type of business organization--efficient networks, data interchange standards, groupware, electronic currency, venture capital micromarkets--are either in place or under development. What is lagging behind is our imagination. But, the authors contend, it is important to consider sooner rather than later the profound implications of how such an e-lance economy might work. They examine the opportunities, and the problems, that may arise and anticipate how the role of managers may change fundamentally--or possibly even disappear altogether.