Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model

It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full model. First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002 Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl     

Risks in new product development: devising a reference tool

This paper describes the development and applicability of a risk reference framework (RRF) for diagnosing risks in technological breakthrough projects. In contrast to existing risk identification strategies, the RRF centers on an integral perspective on risk (i.e. business, technological and organizational) and the assessment of risks in ongoing projects. The resulting RRF consists of 12 main risk categories and 142 connected critical innovation issues and has been developed for a globally operating company in the fast-moving consumer goods industry. Our analyses show that to some extent different project members identified the same risks and that saturation occurred in the number of new risk-issues brought to light. We conclude that the success of breakthrough innovation projects improves through formal risk-assessment.     

Do satisfying walking and cycling trips result in more future trips with active travel modes? An exploratory study

Previous studies have indicated that travel satisfaction - the experienced emotions during, and cognitive evaluation of, a trip - can be affected by travel mode choice and other trip characteristics. However, as satisfactory trips might improve a person's attitude towards the used mode, persons may be more likely to use that same mode for future trips of the same kind. Hence, a cyclical process between travel mode choice and travel satisfaction might occur. In this paper we begin to analyse this process—using a structural equation modelling approach on cross-sectional data—for people who engage in walking and cycling for leisure trips in the Belgian city of Ghent. The focus on walking and cycling reflects recent studies indicating that active travel is often associated with the highest levels of travel satisfaction. Results of this exploratory analysis offer tentative support for the idea of a cyclical process: the evaluation of walking and cycling trips positively affects the respondents' attitude towards the respective mode, which in turn has a positive effect on choosing that mode.     

Business strategies and the transition to low‐carbon cities

Cities are key drivers of global climate change, with the majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions being tied to urban life. Local actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change are essential for stabilization of the global climate and can also help to address other urban ecological problems such as pollution, decreasing biodiversity, etc. Companies are important urban actors in the development of low‐carbon cities because they provide a multitude of goods and services to city populations and directly influence urban carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This is a new area of research. While studies on corporate sustainability are numerous, there is little, if any, existing research that examines the role of companies in climate change adaptation and mitigation within specific urban areas. Urban ecologists also have not examined how corporate activity affects urban systems. Taking a multi‐disciplinary systems approach, we present a conceptual model of the role of companies in managing urban interactions with the climate system. We also present empirical findings illustrating how one company ‘partners’ with the city of Rotterdam to test electric vehicles as a pilot project for urban climate adaptation and mitigation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Perceptions of the value of the HR function

This article explores the added value of the HR function as it is perceived by three groups of managers: top managers, HR managers and line managers. Despite the fact that literature about strategic HRM focuses almost exclusively on the value of the HR function as a strategic partner, it was assumed that its perceived value for the business would not be restricted to the area of strategy formulation and implementation. Several 'result domains' can be distinguished in which the HR function can deliver value to the business. Based on our review of the literature, the degree of strategic involvement of the function was used as a second perspective to investigate its perceived added value. To examine our propositions, a qualitative study was carried out in which 97 HR managers, 38 top managers and 178 line managers participated. The results confirm our thesis that the perceived value of the HR function contains more than just the fulfilment of its role as a strategic partner. Based on our results, an integrated model for the perceived value of the function has been developed.     

Examining the Effectiveness of Fear Appeals in Prompting Help‐Seeking: The Case of At‐Risk Gamblers

With a sample of Australian at‐risk gamblers, this research examines the impact of gender and individual difference in experiential avoidance (EA; cognitive and emotional suppression) on the processing of fear appeals. Study 1, through thematic analysis, explores fear appeal perceptions among at‐risk gamblers. The results identify that relevant threats, such as social and psychological, should be integrated into fear‐inducing advertising stimuli. Study 2 uses multigroup comparisons in structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the robustness of the revised protection motivation model (RPMM) in predicting the effectiveness of fear appeals to induce help‐seeking intentions in at‐risk gamblers. This research examines the boundary conditions of the RPMM through the moderating roles of gender and EA. The results provide evidence that fear partially mediates the impact of perceived susceptibility (PS) on help‐seeking intentions in low experiential avoiders, whereas high experimental avoiders resist fear elicitation. Furthermore, evoked fear does not lead to help‐seeking intentions in male at‐risk gamblers. In female at‐risk gamblers, while fear prompts help‐seeking intentions, PS (i.e., probability of harm) does not translate to behavioral intentions via fear. For both genders and low and high experiential avoiders, cognitive appraisals of PS significantly and positively impact help‐seeking intentions. This research demonstrates the unique roles of gender and EA on fear appeal effectiveness in at‐risk gamblers.     

On randomization, modeling and experimental design; a new example in an old discussion

Fisher and "Student" quarreled in the early days of statistics about the design of experiments, meant to measure the difference in yield between to breeds of corn. This discussion comes down to randomization versus model building. More than half a century has passed since, but the different views remain. In this paper the discussion is put in terms of artificial randomization and natural randomization, the latter being what remains after appropriate modeling. Also the Bayesian position is discussed. An example in terms of the old corn-breeding discussion is given, showing that a simple robust model may lead to inference and experimental design that outperforms the inference from randomized experiments by far. Finally similar possibilities are suggested in statistical auditing.