Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

Multicriteria Portfolio Modeling for the Development of Shared Action Agendas

Organizations and collaborative networks set strategic directions by building agendas of action topics that will be implemented subject to limited resources and other constraints. The development of such agendas typically involves several decision makers and possibly other stakeholders who may have divergent views about how the topics contribute to multiple objectives. The processes of developing these agendas can be supported by methods of multicriteria decision analysis which allow the group members’ preferences to be systematically and transparently synthesized. In this paper, we extend methods of portfolio decision analysis with the aim of guiding the development of agendas in the presence of possibly incomplete information about the group members’ preferences and the impacts of the proposed topics. Specifically, we define performance measures that convey (i) what topics are favored by individual group members and (ii) how acceptable alternative portfolios of topic agendas are to the whole group. The methods are illustrated with data from a real case study for the development of a national research agenda on wood products in Finland.     

Rationales for Government Intervention in the Commercialization of New Technologies

The paper examines rationales relevant to the evolving roles of government intervention and private venture capital industry in the commercialization of new technologies. Specifically, government interventions may aim to mitigate market and systemic failures, eliminate structural rigidities, or respond to anticipatory myopia. Ex ante , constructive, and ex post evaluations are discussed in relation to the possibility that agencies responsible for policy implementation may intervene even in situations in which the benefits of their interventions are not necessarily transparent.     

Rationales for Government Intervention in the Commercialization of New Technologies

The paper examines rationales relevant to the evolving roles of government intervention and private venture capital industry in the commercialization of new technologies. Specifically, government interventions may aim to mitigate market and systemic failures, eliminate structural rigidities, or respond to anticipatory myopia. Ex ante , constructive, and ex post evaluations are discussed in relation to the possibility that agencies responsible for policy implementation may intervene even in situations in which the benefits of their interventions are not necessarily transparent.     

A Note on the Structural Notion of Information in Extensive Form Games

It is argued that the method of representing games by extensive forms and by the associated partitional information structure calls for a wider and more dynamic definition of information set, increasing the overall expressivity of extensive forms of games. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Exploring causal relationships in an innovation program with Robust Portfolio Modeling

Many countries seek to foster the commercial exploitation of science-based research results through selective policy instruments. Typically, these instruments involve processes of follow-up data collection where the results of ex ante and ex post assessments are systematically recorded. Yet, several factors – such as the presence of multiple objectives, predominance of qualitative data and missing observations – may complicate the use of such data for adjusting the management practices of these instruments. With the aim of addressing these challenges, we adopt Robust Portfolio Modeling¹ (RPM) as an evaluation framework to the analysis of longitudinal data: specifically, we (i) determine subsets of outperforming and underperforming projects through the development of an explicit multicriteria model for ex post evaluation, and (ii) carry out comparative analyses between these subsets, in order to identify which ex ante interventions and contextual characteristics may have contributed to later performance. We also report experiences from the application of RPM-evaluation to a Finnish innovation program and outline extensions of this approach that provide further decision support to the managers of innovation programs.     

Foresight within ERA-NETs: Experiences from the preparation of an international research program

In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for ‘Open Method of Coordination’ – such as ERA-NETs – which are promoted by the European Commission towards the establishment of the European Research Area. Specifically, we report experiences from a recent consultation process that was organized within WoodWisdom-Net (ERA-NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new opportunities in wood material science and engineering. This consultation process involved eighteen funding organizations from eight European countries, as well as over 400 participants who represented relevant stakeholder groups, most notably leading researchers and industrialists. Methodologically, the process was based on the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, the deployment of Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) in the identification of promising research issues, and facilitated workshops where the results of Internet-based activities where discussed, validated and synthesized. In addition, extensive network analyses were conducted to support the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals. Drawing on the results from the WoodWisdom-Net consultation process, we discuss the broader potential of Internet-based decision support tools and participatory workshops in promoting foresight activities within ERA-NETs and European coordination tools.     

Markets for standardized technologies: Patent licensing with principle of proportionality

In this paper, we study the licensing of standard-related patents among companies that employ a two-level licensing model where (i) the aggregated value of technology in the end product is divided among the integrated technologies in the product, and (ii) the value of each technology is then shared among the patent owners in proportion to the strengths of their patent portfolios in these technologies. Specifically, we develop a system dynamics simulation model for analyzing the effects of licensing costs on product and technology markets. This model is based on the modeling of three types of companies whose interactions are analyzed using non-cooperative game theory. The numerical results suggest that none of the three companies benefit from very low or very high royalty rates. In this setting, our model for two-level proportional sharing of licensing payments helps identify royalty rates which benefit all types of companies and which provide incentives for technology development and innovation.     

Emergent foresight processes: industrial activities in wireless communications

Technology foresight has received growing attention among those involved in the shaping and implementation of science and technology (S&T) policies. However, although evaluative analyses of foresight exercises have supplied evidence on acclaimed benefits—such as the generation of future-oriented knowledge and strengthening of collaborative networks—they also point to challenges in translating foresight results into actions within research and technology development (RTD) organizations. In this article, we address these challenges by considering the work of the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), which has sought to promote the conception, development, and diffusion of wireless communication technologies. Specifically, by contrasting this work with well-known government-initiated foresight exercises, we typify so-called explicit, emergent, and embedded foresight activities and explore their interrelationships. Our comparative analysis points to conditions under which policy interventions may not be needed for the emergence of foresight activities that exert a major influence on RTD agendas. It also suggests several context-dependent roles for public policy, among which government-driven foresight exercises and the catalysis of more narrowly focused activities are but two examples.     

Disruptions in Supply Networks: A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach

Supply disruptions are attracting growing attention. Even in geographically, politically and economically stable locations, companies are exposed to disruptions, because they depend on their suppliers and suppliers’ suppliers. The analysis of these disruptions helps mitigate risks: for example, instead of relying on local measures such as safety stock or insurance, a company can introduce new supply contracts or backup risky suppliers. In this article, we analyze risks caused by supplier disruptions by introducing concepts from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is a widely employed methodology for the risk analysis of complex engineering systems. We apply PRA to examine simple networks such as triads analytically, and use simulation to analyze disruption risks in random networks of realistic size. We also illustrate how PRA can support strategic decisions such as whether or not to use single or multiple suppliers; which suppliers are more risky than others; and what impacts the complexity of the supply base has on the reliability of the supplier network.