Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Property development: British and French systems

Book reviewed in this article: Topalov, C. 1974: Les promoteurs immobiliers. Ambrose, P. and Colenutt, R. The property machine.     

Gated Communities in Santiago: Wall or Frontier?

It is a widely held notion, disseminated in particular by the LA school of urban studies, that gated communities are enclaves, which not only maintain segregation but also help increase it. In Chile a more benevolent interpretation has arisen. Sabatini, C´ceres and Cerda argue that gated communities help out the poor communities that surround them. If the spatial scale of segregation is reduced — from city to local or neighborhood level — social disintegration should slow, according to their analysis. This article seeks to empirically complement and expand on Sabatini, Caceres and Cerda's position, which seems to be a better interpretation of Chilean reality than the grim picture presented by the LA school. The article is an ethnographic work based on in‐depth interviews in gated communities and a surrounding shantytown in the Huechuraba district, a lower socio‐economic class area in north‐west Santiago. The research concludes that, despite the existence of a wall that promotes community integration among so‐called equals, in conditions of spatial proximity sociability between inside and outside groups is not diminished. Thus, in Huechuraba there is no impenetrable wall separating poor and rich; equally, the walls do not seem to promote community integration within. Spatial proximity has encouraged relations mainly in the realm of functional exchange, making the creation of gated communities in poor neighborhoods a socially desirable experience, at least in the case of Santiago. En études urbaines, l'idée que les communautés privées sécurisées, gated communities, soient des enclaves qui entretiennent, et accentuent, la ségrégation est courante, notamment pour l'école de Los Angeles. Le Chili suscite une interprétation plus humaine. Selon Sabatini, Cáceres et Cerda, les communautés privées sécurisées sont un soutien pour les communautés pauvres avoisinantes. Si l'échelle spatiale de la ségrégation est réduite — de la ville au niveau local ou de quartier — la désintégration sociale devrait, d'après eux, ralentir. L'article vise à compléter et développer de façon empirique leur théorie, celle‐ci semblant traduire la réalité chilienne plus fidèlement que le sombre tableau de l'école de Los Angeles. Il s'agit ici d'un travail ethnographique qui s'appuie sur des entretiens poussés dans des communautés privées sécurisées et un bidonville du secteur de Huechuraba, zone socio‐économiquement pauvre du nord‐est de Santiago. Les recherches concluent que, malgré l'existence d'un mur qui favorise l'intégration communautaire entre soi‐disant égaux, la sociabilité entre les groupes intérieur et extérieur ne diminue pas en cas de proximité spatiale. Ainsi, à Huechuraba, il n'existe aucun mur impénétrable entre riches et pauvres; de même, les murs ne créent pas, semble‐t‐il, d'intégration communautaire dans leur enceinte. La proximité spatiale a encouragé les relations surtout dans le domaine des échanges fonctionnels, faisant de la création de communautés privées sécurisées dans les quartiers pauvres une expérience souhaitable au plan social, du moins dans le cas de Santiago.     

Remittances, schooling, and child labor in Mexico

This paper studies the effects of remittances from the U.S. on child labor and school attendance in recipient Mexican households. We identify these effects using the impact of the 2008-2009 U.S. recession on remittance receipts. The methodology employed is a differences-in-differences strategy that compares households that were remittance recipients before the crisis with never-recipient households. To avoid possible selection problems, we instrument for membership in the remittance recipient group. We find that the negative shock on remittance receipts caused a significant increase in child labor and a significant reduction of school attendance.