PERIODIC SEQUENCES OF ARBITRAGE: A TALE OF FOUR CURRENCIES

This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign exchange trader‐arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three‐currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a ‘balanced’ ensemble of exchange rates in which the law of one price holds. The goal of this article is to understand some interesting features of sequences of arbitrage operations, features which might well be relevant in other contexts in finance and economics.     

Constant per capita consumption paths with exhaustible resources and decaying produced capital

We introduce decay in produced capital and exogenous technical progress to the recent “Solow Model” of Asheim et al. with population growth and observe the possible collapse of the economy given too high a rate of decay. “Enough” technical progress can restore sustainable per capita consumption.     

A cospectral analysis of exchange rate comovements during Asian financial crisis

Comovements of exchange rates before and during Asian financial crisis are examined using cross-spectral methodology. The paper proposes and implements a simple frequency-domain-based test for contagion that avoids biases of the correlation breakdown tests used in the extant literature. The Asian crisis is found to be manifest in greater comovements along high-frequency components. Calculated changes in the high-frequency portion of the covariance indicate a contagion for 48 out of the possible 66 pairs of countries in the sample.     

Consumer search markets with costly revisits

This paper characterizes equilibrium outcomes in consumer search markets taking the cost of going back to stores already searched explicitly into account. We show that the optimal sequential search rule under costly revisits is very different from the traditional reservation price rule in that it is non-stationary and not independent of previously sampled prices. We explore the implications of costly revisits on market equilibrium in two celebrated search models. In the Wolinsky model, some consumers search beyond the first firm. In this class of models, costly revisits do make a substantive difference and their impact can be of the same order of magnitude as the initial search cost. In the Stahl oligopoly search model where consumers do not search beyond the first firm, there remains a unique symmetric equilibrium that has firms use pricing strategies that are identical to the perfect recall case.     

Defence Industry Transformation in Russia: Evidence from a Longitudinal Survey

The article is devoted to the new phenomena in the market transformation of the Russian defence-industrial complex. Based on the data generated by the repeated survey of the CEOs (general directors) of defence enterprises in 1995‐99, it examines economic performance of enterprises, their conflicts with the government and efforts at internal restructuring brought about by reductions of Russia's defence spending, mass privatisation and opening up of the domestic market. We found that despite the dramatic reduction in defence orders, inconsistent government policies and extremely unfavourable macroeconomic environment, the Russian defence industry has made significant progress in its adjustment to the market. Even before the devaluation of the ruble in the autumn of 1998 economic performance of defence enterprises had been gradually improving; it entered a virtual boom since then. Contrary to widely held views, the painful experience of the 1990s has not made the top managers of the defence industry more hostile to reforms: at the end of the decade they were generally more supportive of the market than in 1995.     

A model in which monetary policy is about money

Optimal monetary policy is studied in a model with (i) heterogeneity in the degree to which different people are monitored (have publicly known histories); (ii) idiosyncratic shocks that give rise to heterogeneity in earning and spending realizations; and (iii) central-bank intervention in a “market” in claims or credit in which the participants are those who are heavily monitored. A special case of the model has everyone perfectly monitored. In that case, there is no role for money and no role for central-bank intervention. In the example displayed with imperfect monitoring, optimal intervention is not simple.     

Earnings and Equity Valuation in the Biotech Industry: Theory and Evidence

We examine how the price-earnings relation varies with the uncertainty about and the quality of a firm's investments. We develop a real option valuation framework to capture investment and abandonment options in the research-intensive biotechnology industry. We hypothesize that the price-earnings relation will be V-shaped and change over the firm 's life cycle. We also show how nonfinancial information affects the pricing of earnings. Our empirical findings are based on a sample of 301 biotechnology firms that made IPOs between 1980 and 2000, and are generally consistent with our predictions.     

Privatisation of the Russian Defence Industry: Ownership and Control Issues

This article analyses the outcome of privatisation in the Russian defence industry in the second part of the 1990s. It is based on the results of the longitudinal survey of defence enterprises conducted over the period 1995‐99 in the main defence production regions of Russia: Moscow, St Petersburg, Central European region, Western Siberia, Volga region, the Urals and the Far East. Using the survey data, we investigate the distribution of ownership in defence enterprises and examine the non-linear relationship between ownership and control inside these enterprises. We also test the hypothesis of the growing criminal influence in defence enterprises and outline a possible future scenario for privatisation in the defence industry.     

Spatial modeling of stock market comovements

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return predictions. We find that stock market comovements are unrelated to geographical proximity, and that financial linkages, as measured by foreign direct investment (FDI) ties, are important in accounting for markets comovements. Our results suggest that the proposed measure of financial distance, coupled with spatial methodology, captures fairly accurately the dependencies in the world financial markets, providing important implications for policymaking and portfolio management.     

Factors affecting the breadth and depth of e-procurement use in small and medium enterprises

Organizations differ in the range of e-procurement functionalities they use (breadth of use) and in how much they rely on e-procurement (depth of use). Nonetheless, factors affecting the breadth and the depth of e-procurement use have never been studied in a single context. Therefore, it is unclear whether the differences between the effects discovered in past studies are due to the difference between the breadth and the depth of use, or to the difference between contexts. We test the effects of factors potentially affecting the breadth and the depth of e-procurement use in a single context, using data from 151 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector in New Zealand. The results indicate that the breadth and the depth of use of e-procurement in business organizations are influenced by different factors. Perceived relative advantage of using e-procurement, plus external pressure from suppliers and competitors to use e-procurement, result in the use of a broader range of e-procurement functionalities – in a greater breadth of e-procurement use. However, the extent of an organization’s reliance on e-procurement in organizational purchasing (i.e., depth of e-procurement use) is driven by compatibility of e-procurement with organizational values, practices, technology infrastructure, and strategy. Arguing that in order to benefit fully from e-procurement, an organization needs to integrate it deeply into its operations, we conclude that managers evaluating new e-procurement technologies should consider their compatibility with organizational norms and practices.