Kurz kommentiert

Kurz kommentiert

Kurz kommentiert     

在人民币汇率上做文章是错误的

[美国《华尔街日报》2月2日]中国本已遭到美国卸任财长鲍尔森（Henry Paulson）的指责，称中国是导致全球金融危机的原因之一，而他刚上任的继任者盖特纳（Timothy Geithner）更是火上浇油。在最近提交给参议院的书面证词中，盖特纳使用了“汇率操纵国”这个可怕的标签，表示中国有意地低估了人民币。     

The effects of changes in household demographics and employment on consumer demand patterns

This study examines to what extent changes in consumer demand patterns over the last two decades in the Netherlands can be attributed to changes in household demographics, employment and total expenditures. The dominating changes in consumer demand are decreasing budget shares of food & beverages and clothing & footwear and increasing budget shares of housing and services. The changes in households’ composition – away from the traditional one-earner family with children – together with the increase in household total expenditures account for about one-third of the decrease in the budget share of food & beverages, half of the increase in the budget shares of services and only a minor part of the increase in housing. Once controlled for budget effects, the quadrupling of the proportion of employed women with young children accounts for about one-third of the increase in the budget shares of personal & health care – including childcare – and food away, holidays & entertainment.     

'One Household/Two Systems'

Under China's dual-track approach to reform, 'one household/two systems', or combining state and private employment within a family, connotes having the best of both worlds. Drawing upon work history data for 5000 households, the present study looks at who is employed in the private sector. Findings are that marriage to a state-employed spouse actually reduces the probability of one's holding a private sector job and that the effects of living with a state-connected parent are mixed. Were households more actively pursuing a one-household/two-systems strategy, the transition from state dependence would be expedited.     

中国需主动采取措施降低储蓄率刺激国内消费

有传言说热钱正在把宝押在人民币大幅升值上。不管怎么说，这总算给中国官方外汇储备的持续大幅增长提供了一种解释，这种增长目前已无法用经常项目盈余以及外商直接投资大于中国对外投资来解释．虽然从表面上看中国外汇储备大幅增长是短期资本涌入造成的，但投机者为什么要把宝押在人民币大幅升值上呢？这一前景与中国宏观经济的基本面并不吻合。中国经济的基本面取决于国内储蓄和投资的相互关系。二者之间出现不吻合便会产生贸易失衡，因为没有转化为国内投资的储蓄变成了外流资本，     

中国经济刺激计划将推进变革

【美国《华尔街日报》11月13日】全球市场都为北京9日宣布的经济刺激计划而欢呼，这不无理由。以5，860亿美元的规模来说，这项计划可谓宏大。尽管刺激计划或许需要一些时间才能发挥作用，但它却可能有助于给中国经济带来重要变革。如果中国要把世界从经济危机中拯救出来，那么这样的一揽子刺激计划正是它该采用的办法。     

The measurement of small-scale industry for China's GDP accounts

The shift to an economy driven by small-scale private industry requires an adaptation of China's statistical system to rely on sample survey methods rather than the comprehensive reporting that suited a state-dominated economy. In 1998, the number of enterprises reporting directly to the National Bureau of Statistics was reduced, but a system of aggregation through levels of the government hierarchy has remained in place for smaller enterprises pending the development of suitable sample survey techniques. A pilot survey will be conducted in Jiangsu Province for the first three quarters of 2001.