The Neutrality Illusion: Biased Economics,Biased Training,and Biased Monetary Policy. Testing the Role of Ideology on FOMC Voting Behaviour

This research is trying to shed light on two myths that are usually widespread: the first one being the idea of the academic economist as a neutral scientist finding uncontestable consensual truths, thanks to uncontestable empirical methods, the second, the idea of the central banker as a Weberian neutral bureaucrat setting aside personal beliefs to act mechanically for the common good. Deconstructing this ‘neutrality illusion’, this work argues that economics is actually a divided and ideologically marked discipline despite its aim at natural-science-type-legitimacy. It argues in a related discussion that such ideological bias also impedes a purely neutral conduct of monetary policy, undermining the very idea of central bank independence. Linking these two arguments, it argues that graduate training in economics is the first place for the formation of biased preferences, because of the substantial ideological sorting that exists across universities. Using a unique database on FOMC members’ votes and ideology, the paper tests this idea empirically and despite unavoidable caveats, finds robust evidence of a systematic impact of the ideological features of their alma mater on FOMC members’ voting behaviour – impact that we found more important than the other traditional determinants of central bankers’ actions.     

Segmenting the Belgian charitable sector: The impact of environmental factors on households' generosity

Research on charitable giving has known a renewed interest over the last years. Despite a recent evolution, the literature remains predominantly Anglo‐Saxon, and studies are consequently conducted in societies marked by a strong charitable giving culture. In that respect, donors are generally considered as isolated individuals, and the impact of social and environmental factors such as public policies, institutional specificities, and punctual events is often underestimated. Moreover, research on generosity often suffers from the absence of reliable data, free of desirability bias. Based on fiscal data of tax returns and gift tax returns provided by the official Belgian statistics bureau, this research investigates individual donating behaviors while considering the influence of environmental determinants on generosity. More specifically, we empirically assess the generosity of Belgian households over a period of 8 years marked by natural disasters, massive calls for public generosity, and changes in tax policies. Among other things, we qualify the results of previous research on the role of age and open the debate on the role of household composition as a variable for segmenting donors. Finally, we propose leads for future research in order to stimulate further academic effort on the topic.     

Assessing information integration processes: a comparison of findings obtained with between-subjects designs versus within-subjects designs

Quality & Quantity - Within-subject designs (WSDs) remain unpopular in psychology. Social psychologists have argued that they create “demand” and “order” effects....     

Debates and dissent inside the FOMC during WWII

Abstract

We demonstrate that even though during WWII the interest rate was close to zero supporting the financing of the military effort, dissent inside the FOMC occurred with a similar frequency to other policy episodes. Our analysis highlights that the debates which resulted in dissents turned around two broad issues: the size of the Fed’s balance sheet as well as the functioning of and communication with financial markets. Thus, we argue that the conventional view depicting the Fed as merely accommodating treasury needs should be revised. Our detailed investigation of dissents emphasises the modernity of the objections raised by Fed officials.     

Stock exchange mergers and market efficiency

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of stock exchange mergers on the degree of informational efficiency. For this purpose, we apply the generalized spectral shape test for the martingale difference hypothesis to the stock returns before and after the 31 domestic and cross-border mergers completed from 1997 to 2011. The test is conducted with moving subsample windows, allowing us to detect the periods of (in)efficiency, and thus to conduct a comparative analysis for pre-merger and post-merger periods. We find that higher levels of efficiency are less frequent than lower levels of efficiency after a stock exchange merger. We also find that the impact on the level of efficiency depends on a range of merger characteristics such as the level of development, size, geographical diversification and industrial diversification of stock exchange.     

On the optimality of a minimum wage: New insights from optimal tax theory

We build a theoretical model to study whether a minimum wage can be welfare-improving if it is implemented in conjunction with an optimized nonlinear income tax. We consider this issue in a framework where search frictions on the labor market generate unemployment. Workers differ in productivity. The government does not observe workers' productivity but only their wages. Hence, the redistributive policy solves an adverse selection problem. We show that a minimum wage is optimal if the bargaining power of the workers is relatively low. However, if the government controls the bargaining power, then it is preferable to set a sufficiently high bargaining power.     

Local economic development: Policy and practice in South Africa

The policy of local economic development (LED) is currently attracting considerable attention in government and development circles in South Africa. This article seeks to critically examine and assess the key contextual considerations which influence LED, its emergence and its chances of success. In this regard, the notions of post‐Fordism and the important role of government are examined. It then outlines and assesses evolving LED policy and practice in the country in the light of current experiences in various centres. The article concludes with an examination of various practical considerations which appear to be affecting the further application of the concept in the country. These issues are deemed to be of relevance to policymakers if LED is to be successfully implemented.     

Irrational exuberance in the Chinese iron ore market?

The rapid run-ups in the Chinese iron ore market in the first half of 2016 have sparked much concern about the appearance of speculative bubbles in this market among many market analysts. Using a recently developed bubble testing procedure, we confirm that there indeed existed periods of irrational exuberance in the Chinese iron ore market. However, most of the bubble periods are short-lived, reflecting the market’s ability to quickly respond to price deviations unjustified by fundamentals. The longest bubble period occurred in mid-2014, corresponding to a period of relatively low trading volume. Using a fractional probit model, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that market liquidity may play a role in bubble occurrences.     

Facilitating multimodal logistics and enabling information systems connectivity through wireless vehicular networks

The adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) has made it possible to experience high levels of visibility, control and connectivity across the entire supply chain. However, in road transport logistics, wireless ICT applications like cellular networks, Wi-Fi, UMTS, 4G and WiMax have not entirely solved reliability and connectivity problems due to difficulties associated with limited range, scalability and security. This paper examines the feasibility of using a vehicular network technology, dedicated short range communication (DSRC), in a multimodal logistics environment as means of providing enhanced visibility and connectivity using a secure access architecture. The secure access architecture is necessary to provide a high degree of security to the detailed visibility involving road haulage feeding port operations using a centralised port service.