Multimarket contact and sales growth: evidence from insurance

Research on pricing, profits, and firm survival has shown that multimarket contact causes mutual forbearance against competition, but has not considered the consequences of imperfect observability of competitive moves. Here, predictions are developed to explain how mutual forbearance occurs—but sometimes fails—in markets with imperfect observability. Mutual forbearance means that firms do not seek to take market share from each other through price cuts or nonprice competition, and thus that sales grow at uniform rates. Firms defect from mutual forbearance, and hence have higher sales growth, if the potential rewards are high and the likelihood of being discovered is low. This theory is tested on a panel of firms operating in the Norwegian general insurance industry. The evidence suggests that sales growth is most rapid in firms that do not meet many multimarket competitors in a given market and firms that are economically troubled. Growing or highly concentrated markets have higher heterogeneity of growth rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ASYMMETRY OF CUSTOMER LOSS AND RECOVERY UNDER ENDOGENOUS PARTNERSHIPS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

This article is inspired by real‐world phenomena that firms lose customers based on imprecise information and take a long time to recover. If consumers are playing an ordinary repeated game with fixed partners, there is no clear reason why recovery happens slowly. However, if consumers are playing an endogenously repeated game, a class of simple efficient equilibria exhibits the asymmetry of fast loss and slow recovery of customers after a bad signal. Exit is systematic, but formation of a new partnership is random. We also give empirical evidence of our equilibria at an individual‐firm level.     

Bigger and safer: the diffusion of competitive advantage

Research on the diffusion of technologies that give competitive advantage is needed to understand the role of technology in competition. Predictions on which firms first obtain useful technologies are made by cluster theory, which holds that the diffusion is geographically bounded, and network theory, which holds that adoption is more rapid in central network positions. These predictions can be evaluated using data on the diffusion of supplier innovations that give competitive advantage to firms in the buyer industry. Here, the diffusion of new ship types is studied using the heterogeneous diffusion model and data on shipping firm‐shipbuilder networks, showing that valuable innovations remain rare because they are not adopted by distant firms in geographical and network space. The strong influence of geographically dispersed interfirm networks on technology diffusion justifies a greater role of interorganizational networks in the theory of competitive advantage. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A theorem on translations by Hille,and its interpretation from the point of view of the theory of probability

Abstract

The Taylor expansion of a function around a point a may, as is well-known, be formally written      

Confident expectations, rational expectations and the optimal conduct of monetary policy

Under what conditions central banks can afford to deviate from announced targets without losing their reputation is analyzed. For this, the public must have something like ‘confident expectations' vis-a-vis monetary policy and central banks have to behave accordingly. The paper shows that it can be rational for the public and welfare-increasing for the society to retain ‘confident expectations' instead of switching to rational expectations, when central banks have gained long-run reputation. At the end of the paper, alternative optimal money supply rules are compared in a dynamic optimization framework. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

Research Strategies in Science-based Start-ups: Effects on Performance in Danish and Swedish Biotechnology

Although biotech start-ups fail or succeed based on their research, few attempts have been made to examine if and how they strategise in this core activity. Using a unique comprehensive dataset on Danish and Swedish biotech start-ups in drug discovery this paper adopts a Simonean approach to analysing the research strategies of small dedicated biotech firms (DBFs), focusing on three interrelated issues: (i) characterising the problem architectures addressed by different types of DBFs; (ii) testing and confirming that DBFs form requisite research strategies, by which we refer to problem-solving approaches developed as congruent responses to problem architectures; and (iii) testing and confirming that financial valuation of firms is driven by achievements conforming to requisite research strategies. These strategies, in turn, require a careful combination of multiple dimensions of research. The findings demonstrate that Schoonhoven's argument that 'strategy matters' is valid not only for the larger high-tech firms covered by her study, but also for small research-based start-ups operating at the very well-springs of knowledge where science directly interacts with technologies. Although more research is needed along these lines, these findings offer new implications for the understanding, management and financing of these firms.     

Positional rigidity: low performance and resource acquisition in large and small firms

Past research has given contradictory answers to the question of how strategic change is linked to firm size and performance. This paper resolves the contradictory predictions of performance feedback theory and threat rigidity theory by positing that small and large firms have distinct responses to performance because of differences in risk aversion and internal rigidity. To examine these differences, it is necessary to distinguish risk taking from rigidity in the strategic position, which is accomplished by separate analysis of the amount of resource acquisition and the difference of acquired and existing resources. Analysis of data from the shipping industry supports the predicted interactions of firm size and performance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The thin red line between success and failure: Path dependence in the diffusion of innovative production technologies

The wide variation in the success of innovations obscures similarities in the process of firms being influenced by other firms when choosing production technology. We argue that diffusion processes are similar across successful and failed innovations. Production asset innovation success results not only from innovation quality differences—early chance events and subsequent path dependence are also intrinsic to diffusion processes. Thus, diffusion processes do not reliably spread the best innovations, producing competitive advantage for firms with an early lead producing innovations and firms adopting high‐quality innovations. We test these predictions quantitatively by analyzing the diffusion of the DC‐10 and L‐1011 airplanes, and find support for our theory linking the social information provided by firm adoptions to the success of innovative production technologies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Communicating with the public during health crises: experts' experiences and opinions

Governments and health agencies worldwide are planning for a potential influenza pandemic. Their plans acknowledge the importance of public communication during an outbreak and include related guidelines and strategies. Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication is a new addition to the literature, drawing on health promotion communication, crisis communication and environmental/technological risk communication. This paper adds to the literature, exploring the notion of ‘effective communication during health crises' by reporting on interviews with 22 public health officials, scientists and communications professionals responsible for communicating with the public. When analyzed in the context of the risk communication literature, the interviews reveal several considerations for health risk communicators. First, given the important role that mass media will play in an EID outbreak, there is an urgent need for public health to build partnerships with journalists based on an understanding of the two parties' unique societal roles. Second, seemingly practical communications considerations – such as how certain to be about information before sharing it and whether to engage in two‐way communication with the public – have ethical dimensions that deserve attention. Third, there are unique challenges associated with communicating uncertainty, which would benefit from an exploration of the role of trust in health crisis communication.