Risk-Sensitive Asset Management in a Wishart-Autoregressive Factor Model with Jumps

Risk-sensitive asset management problems, both those with a finite horizon and those with an infinite horizon, are studied in a financial market model that has a Wishart autoregressive-type jump-diffusion factor, which is a positive-definite symmetric matrix-valued process. The model describes the stochasticity of the market covariance structure, the interest rates, and the risk-premium of the risky assets. We obtain explicit representations of the solutions to the problems.     

The determinants of price in 3G spectrum auctions

This article examined the empirical relationship between prices paid for national 3G wireless licenses when spectrums were sold by auction. The reduced-form modelling approach was based on the premise that auction design features can, and do, affect both final (revenue) and intermediate (viz., auction competitiveness and license assignment) auction outcomes. Importantly, the analysis recognizes, and explicitly allows for, the endogeneity of bidder entry and sample selection arising from an absence of bidding. Generally, these key features have only received attention in isolation. In particular, the study addressed the principal question of: which regulator chosen auction design variables determine prices paid in spectrum auctions? The analysis showed that flexible-package formats increased prices paid, and that higher reserve prices had a dampening effect. The article also showed that longer license terms and more competitive auctions (as measured by the bidders-to-licenses ratio) enhance prices paid.     

The Effects of Liquidity Shocks on Corporate Investments and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Actuarial Pension Gains/Losses

This paper investigates how anticipated liquidity shocks affect corporate investment and cash holdings by examining the impacts of actuarial pension gains/losses that do not reduce current internal resources but will reduce those available in the future. Using a sample from Japanese manufacturing firms in which pension deficits had a huge impact on the internal resources of sponsoring firms, I show that pension losses significantly decrease the capital expenditures of sponsoring firms. Pension losses also increase corporate cash holdings, suggesting precautionary demands for cash prepared for future pension contributions. Overall, the results indicate that managers consider anticipated liquidity shocks in determining current investment and cash‐saving policies.     

Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model

This paper presents a disequilibrium macrodynamic model that incorporates certain elements from Goodwin (the dynamics of the rate of employment and income distribution), Kalecki (an investment function independent of savings, and mark-up pricing in oligopolistic goods markets), and Marx (the reserve-army and reserve-army-creation effects). The model has a system of differential equations for the rate of utilization, profit share, and rate of employment. We show that there exist limit cycles that depend on the sizes of the reserve-army effect and reserve-army-creation effect. This implies that there exists a situation in which the economy experiences endogenous and perpetual growth cycles. Moreover, we show that if the stable long-run equilibrium corresponds to the profit-led growth regime, an increase in the bargaining power of workers increases the rate of unemployment; conversely, if the equilibrium corresponds to the wage-led growth-regime, an increase in the bargaining power of workers decreases the rate of unemployment.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETENTION RATIO IN A KALECKIAN MODEL WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION

By using a Kaleckian model with debt accumulation, Hein (2007; Metroeconomica, 56 (2), pp. 310–39) found that the long‐run equilibrium value of the debt–capital ratio is positive and stable only if interest rates are extremely high and if the short‐run equilibrium exhibits the ‘debt‐led’ growth regime. However, this conclusion crucially depends on the assumption that the retention ratio of firms is equal to unity. By relaxing this assumption, we show that there exists a positive and stable long‐run equilibrium even under the ‘debt‐burdened’ regime without any constraint on the nominal interest rate.     

International Competition and Distributive Class Conflict in an Open Economy Kaleckian Model

This paper constructs an open economy Kaleckian model in which international competition affects the bargaining process between firms and workers, and investigates the effects of such bargaining on the macroeconomy. We show that the effects of a change in the bargaining power on aggregate demand depends not only on the demand regimes but also on which agents bears more of the burden arising from the international price competition. Moreover, if the real exchange rate has a small impact on the trade balance, the economy is stable, whereas if it has a larger impact on the trade balance, the economy is unstable.     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

Bank risk and non-interest income activities in the Indonesian banking industry

The recent trend of product diversification in the Indonesian banking industry underscores the importance of non-interest income activities. This study examines the relationship between product diversification and bank risk over the period of 2002–2008. Our analysis shows clear evidence that the effect of product diversification on bank risk depends highly on the bank's asset size. Specifically, the degree of product diversification is negatively associated with bank risk for small-sized banks. Conversely, the degree of product diversification is positively related to bank risk for large-sized banks. This finding suggests that deregulation encouraging banks to become more involved in non-traditional activities may have an adverse effect on the overall banking system where large-sized banks are playing a significant role in Indonesia.     

Roles of Public Capital in Pakistan's Economy: Productivity, Investment and Growth Analysis

This study analyzes the role of public capital in Pakistan's economy, tracing the relationship between productivity of public capital and economic growth. We estimate a production function, with public capital as an inputs. The results indicate that the productivity (output elasticity) of aggregate as well as different components of public capital are sufficiently high. We also analyze substitutability and complementarity between public and private capital by estimating investment functions, revealing that public capital has worked as a substitute for private investment. The net effect of public capital on the national economy is analyzed by estimating reduced forms, with the result that public capital has a positive net effect on national product. The growth analysis shows that the contribution of public capital is declining over time.