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1.
Despite data limitations, an attempt is made to find out if a GDP nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy. Two competing Bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in-sample forecasting errors. The main finding of this study is that GDP nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators. 相似文献
2.
Imad Moosa 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2011,37(3):267-281
When the interest rate on a currency that is pegged to a basket differs from the interest rate on the basket (as a weighted
average), it is possible to make profit from interest arbitrage by going short on the basket and long on the pegged currency,
or vice versa. This proposition is illustrated by using data on the Kuwaiti dinar and its basket currencies over the period
1998–2002 when the currency was pegged to a basket. Monte Carlo simulations show that the probability of making arbitrage
profit from any single operation is about 95%. 相似文献
3.
Imad A. Moosa 《Applied economics》2016,48(44):4201-4209
Some economists suggest that the failure of exchange-rate models to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting out of sample can be attributed to failure to take into account cointegration when it is present. We attempt to find out if cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy by examining the relation between the stationarity and size of the forecasting error. Results based on three macroeconomic models of exchange rates do not provide strong support for the proposition that cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy. The simulation results show that while stationary errors tend to be smaller than non-stationary errors, this is not a universal rule. Irrespective of the presence or absence of cointegration, none of the three models can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, which means that cointegration cannot solve the Meese–Rogoff puzzle. 相似文献
4.
S. A. Moosa 《Applied economics》2013,45(4):451-458
This study uses a familiar set of variables to characterize the determinants of training (based around individual characteristics, qualifications, and workplace characteristics). However, it goes further by using data drawn from a recent quarter of the UK Labour Force Survey, and thus contains an up-to-date and extensive set of core variables. The dependent variable used covers three subgroups: those who have never been offered training by their current employer; those who have been offered but did not receive training in the last three months; and those workers who received training within the last three months. The hypothesis that large employers not only provide more work-related training, but that they are also more willing to train workers with characteristics that indicate a lower probability of obtaining a return on any investment outlay, is tested. This was confirmed (especially for male workers), along with a range of results that mostly accord with previous studies into the determinants of UK employer-based training. 相似文献
5.
This paper puts forward the proposition that failure to take account of stochastic seasonality results in dynamic misspecification. This point is illustrated by estimating various versions of a simple Australian consumpt ion function using seasonally unadjusted data covering the period 1959(3)–1993(3). It is demonstrated that only the equation modelling stochastic seasonality as an unobserved component shows no dynamic misspecification unlike other equations. This equation is also shown to have the highest explanatory power and, unlike other equations, to be structurally stable 相似文献
6.
7.
Imad A. Moosa 《Review of World Economics》2002,138(4):694-710
A Test of the News Model of Exchange Rates. — The news model is tested using quarterly data on six exchange rates involving
four currencies over a period extending back to 1975. The results show that unbiased efficiency does not hold and that there
are time-varying risk premia. The results also show that the news variables, proxied by the residuals of VAR models, do not
have a significant effect on the exchange rate. It is argued that while news is a theoretically plausible explanation for
erratic changes in the exchange rate, generated regressors cannot adequately represent news. 相似文献
8.
Price Discovery and Risk Transfer in the Crude Oil Futures Market: Some Structural Time Series Evidence 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Imad A. Moosa 《Economic Notes》2002,31(1):155-165
This paper re-examines the Garbade and Silber (1983) model with the objective of finding out if the crude oil futures market performs the functions of price discovery and risk transfer. The model is estimated, using daily data, as a system of two seemingly unrelated time series equations allowing the coefficients to be time-varying. The empirical results reveal that the futures market performs about 60 per cent of the price discovery function, and that the elasticity of supply of arbitrage services is adequately high for the market to perform the risk transfer function.
(J.E.L: G13, C22). 相似文献
(J.E.L: G13, C22). 相似文献
9.
This paper examines the variables that determine the performance of countries at the Olympic Games as measured by a weighted sum of the medals won at the Sydney 2000 Games. While previous studies have identified the importance of a country's economic size and the resources available to sport, this paper examines nine more variables including the number of athletes representing each nation and some development indicators. Based on 2310 regressions, both traditional and restricted extreme bounds analysis show that only two variables are robust: the number of athletes and national expenditure on health. Thus, the final model recognises four explanatory variables that include these two as well as GDP and population. 相似文献
10.
Ex ante real interest rates and their differentials are tested for mean reversion using quarterly data on three-month treasury bill rates and consumer prices for 12 major industrial countries over the period 1972:l-1993:3. The results are strongly supportive of mean reversion, particularly when less conventional tests are employed. The conclusion that can be derived from the empirical evidence is that goods, capital and foreign exchange markets have become highly integrated in the countries under consideration. 相似文献