Testing the Exogeneity of Argentine Devaluation and Default Risks in Retrospect*

This paper studies the relationship between devaluation and default risks during Argentina's convertibility regime. Before default and devaluation occurred, a harder variant of the currency regime was under discussion. An often‐suggested argument among the supporters of dollarization was that the probability of default could have been reduced by removing fears of devaluation. For this to be true, default risk must be dependent on the devaluation risk. Long‐run relationships and ‘exogeneity’ are examined using a ‘cointegrating vector’ system approach. The results show that only devaluation risk can be modelled on default risk. No empirical evidence is found in favour of dollarization. Moreover, these conclusions are maintained when the information set is expanded to include the Latin American risk and Argentine macroeconomic variables.     

Intrapreneurship model in the software industry

Quality & Quantity - The complexity of business dynamics demands that companies search for alternative ways to ensure their growth and survival. Thus intrapreneurship emerges as an ad-hoc...     

Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the US dollar?

In this article, we examine the convenience of dollarization for Ecuador today. As Ecuador is strongly integrated financially and commercially with the United States, the exchange rate pass-through should be zero. However, we sustain that rising rates of imports from trade partners other than the United States and subsequent real effective exchange rate depreciations are causing the pass-through to move away from zero. Here, in the framework of the Vector Error Correction Model, we analyse the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the inflation variable. We show that the developing economy of Ecuador is importing inflation from its main trading partners, most of them emerging countries with appreciated currencies. We argue that if Ecuador recovered both its monetary and exchange rate instruments, it would be able to fight against inflation. We believe such an analysis could be extended to other countries with pegged exchange rate regimes.     

Predictors of glycemic control and diabetes-related costs among type 2 diabetes patients initiating therapy with liraglutide in the United States

Objective:

Liraglutide has been shown to significantly improve glycemic control and reduce body weight while minimizing the risk of hypoglycemia in adult patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aimed to identify characteristics that predict clinical and economic outcomes associated with liraglutide therapy in clinical practice in the US.

Methods:

Using the Truven Health MarketScan Laboratory Database, glycemic control (A1C <7%) and diabetes-related costs were evaluated in T2D patients initiating liraglutide between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2012. Patients were required to have ≥1 post-index claim for liraglutide and A1C values at baseline and 6 months follow-up. All valid values of baseline A1C were included. Patients previously treated with GLP-1 receptor agonist(s) or insulin, or with evidence of type 1 diabetes, pregnancy, or gestational diabetes during the study period were excluded. Multivariable regression models were used to identify predictors of glycemic control and diabetes-related costs.

Results:

Of 417 patients newly treated with liraglutide, 54.0% achieved glycemic control (A1C <7%) during follow-up. Factors associated with increased odds of glycemic control during follow-up were: being female, POS/EPO health plan type, baseline A1C, early liraglutide initiation (0–1 prior oral anti diabetics [OADs] vs ≥2), adherence to liraglutide (defined as the proportion of days covered [PDC]), and diabetic retinopathy. Being female, earlier liraglutide initiation (0–1 prior OADs), and higher patient share of liraglutide costs were associated with significantly lower diabetes-related costs during follow-up. Factors associated with significantly higher post-index diabetes-related costs were: higher baseline A1C, baseline use of sulfonylureas, and diabetic retinopathy.

Conclusions:

Within this commercially-insured population of T2D patients treated with liraglutide, gender, baseline A1C, early liraglutide initiation (0–1 prior OADs), diabetic retinopathy, better adherence, and patient share of liraglutide costs were associated with increased odds of achieving glycemic control and the odds of having higher or lower diabetes-related costs.     

Can distortions in agriculture support structural transformation? The case of Uzbekistan

The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in the development process of a country. However, the tools used to trigger economic development are objects of controversy in theory and practice. While neoclassical theory contends that state interventions and protectionism create inefficiencies and sub-optimal allocation of resources, heterodox authors argue that those measures can be instrumental in fostering growth. Uzbekistan has applied heterodox distortive measures in agriculture. This paper investigates the implications of those distortions for the Uzbek economy. I argue that state interventions in agriculture, through surplus extraction and economies of scale, have facilitated investments in added-value industries, driving national structural transformation.     

An autonomous multi-agent approach to supply chain event management

Organizations have made a significant effort to implement software for planning and scheduling, but disruptive event management is still a problem to be solved. Since a disruptive event can affect the overall performance of the supply chain, SCEM (Supply Chain Event Management) systems presenting different automation levels such as monitoring, alarm and decision support have been proposed. However, the management of disruptive events, taking into account the distributed nature of the supply chain, the members' autonomy and the ability to exert corrective control actions, has been identified as a problem that requires further research. This work presents an agent-based approach for the SCEM problem, which can perform autonomous corrective control actions to minimize the effect of deviations in the plan that is currently being executed. These control actions consist of a distribution of the variation between supply chain members, using the plan's slack in a collaborative way. An innovative feature of this approach is its focus on resources, which are affected by disruptive events in a direct way. Based on this approach, a SCEM system is designed as a net of control points defined on resources connected through supply process orders. Two novel aspects are the distributed collaborative inter-organizational architecture of the SCEM system and a Double Contract Net Protocol. This protocol allows a set of resource:representing agents to interact through an agent, representing a supply process order as a mediator. An application to a case study of the Multi-Agent SCEM system implemented with JADE is provided.     

Stability analysis and efficiency determinants: empirical evidence

Efficiency determinants analysis is a main contemporary component in the productive efficiency literature. Two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) procedure supposed a turning point in the methodology as the significance of a certain exogenous factor can provide policymakers with accurate information for future strategic decisions, but a deeper scrutiny into the importance of each factor remains unsettled. This article provides a novelty theoretical extension and empirical application for the two-stage DEA bootstrap procedure. We define the stability coefficient (SC) whose magnitude reveals the effect of each exogenous factor in the efficiency estimates. We present empirical evidence to examine the hypothesis that the efficiency of the 17 Spanish tourism regions for the average period data 2005–2013 is determined by a group of contextual variables, illustrating how the SCs strengthen knowledge concerning the significance of each potential attractor. The results help us to classify the significant attractors into strong and weak, accordingly enhancing the public or private decision process, and henceforth avoiding the wastefulness of decision-making units spending.     

An empirical test of the regional innovation paradox: can smart specialisation overcome the paradox in Central and Eastern Europe?

The regional innovation paradox is the greater need of lagging regions to invest in innovation and their relatively lower capacity to absorb funding compared to more advanced regions. Using data on regional public spending, industry composition and economic performance, we test empirically whether there is a differential impact of European funding on regional economic growth between Eastern and Western European regions. We conclude that the paradox is proven and consider the extent to which smart specialisation strategies may help to improve the quality of governance of regional innovation systems.     

Patterns of accumulation and social differentiation through a slow‐paced agrarian market transition in post‐Soviet Uzbekistan

This article presents an analysis of contemporary Uzbek agrarian change. First, using mixed methods and triangulating secondary and primary data from Samarkand, it untangles emerging relations of production and exchange during the slow processes of market transition. It shows that different types of public investment, price regulation, subsidies, procurement mechanisms, and the pace of marketization to which crops are subject shaped a slow growth of rural social differentiation and private accumulation. Traditionally, cotton farms have been in a privileged position because they have access to more land and subsidized inputs of production. However, due to recent fast‐track liberalization policies and state‐led investment, farms producing high value crops—fruit and vegetables—are at the forefront of a new pattern of private accumulation. Second, the article reflects on how the gradual approach to market transition has so far squeezed private accumulation, enabling the centralization of surplus extraction from cotton and wheat. This state‐led accumulation strategy is slowly fading, leaving space for market‐oriented reforms that will entail new but uncertain distributional and developmental outcomes within and outside agriculture.