Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.     

HOW DO RATING AGENCIES’ DECISIONS IMPACT STOCK MARKETS? A META‐ANALYSIS

The purpose of this study is to examine how credit rating agencies’ decisions impact the stock market using a systematic and quantitative review of existing empirical studies. Specifically, we employ a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to investigate the extent and nature of the effect of rating agencies’ decisions on the stock market. We survey 62 studies published between 1978 and 2015. Our first finding is that the cumulative average abnormal returns calculated from this empirical literature are affected by publication bias. After controlling for publication bias, the main findings of our meta‐analysis indicate that negative rating decisions cause statistically significant negative abnormal returns. This evidence suggests an informational effect. Our results also indicate that positive rating decisions do not have a significant effect. Finally, the MRA results reveal the importance of several factors related to primary study design, as well as to the nature of the data.     

Healthcare burden and reimbursement of hospitalization during chemotherapy for adults with Ph-negative relapsed or refractory B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia in France: a retrospective chart review

Objective: Philadelphia chromosome negative [Ph(?)] relapsed or refractory (R/R) B-precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is an extremely rare condition requiring intensive treatment. This retrospective chart review aimed to quantify hospitalizations and reimbursement in this patient population in France.

Methods: Patients aged ≥18 years and with at least one hospitalization for Ph(?) R/R B-precursor ALL were included in the study. They were relapsed with first remission lasting <12 months, relapsed after first salvage therapy, relapsed any time after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT), or were refractory to initial or salvage therapy. Data were collected from the index date (first diagnosis of R/R ALL) until death or loss to follow-up. The chemotherapy period was defined as the first chemotherapy date after the index date to the earliest of death, loss to follow-up, last chemotherapy dose plus 30 days, or initiation of HSCT. The primary outcome was the percentage of time hospitalized during the chemotherapy period.

Results: Thirty-three patients were included, with a mean age of 49 years. The mean proportion of time spent in the hospital during the chemotherapy period was 46% (95% CI =34–57%). Patients had a mean of 2.2 (SD =1.5) inpatient hospitalizations and the mean length of stay per hospitalization was 16.8 (SD =14.8) days. During the chemotherapy period, the mean amount reimbursed per hospitalization was €31 067 (SD = €4850) and the total hospitalization reimbursement per patient was €68 344. From the index date to death, excluding HSCT, the total reimbursement per patient was €108 873.

Limitations: The sample size was small, although this was expected given the rarity of the patient population.

Conclusions: Adults with Ph(?) R/R B-precursor ALL had repeated and prolonged hospitalizations during salvage chemotherapy. Approximately half the follow-up period was spent in the hospital, and this time was associated with high economic burden in France.     

A quantitative and qualitative analysis of sexual harassment claims 1995–2005

This article explores the organisational and legal context in which parties involved in claims relating to sexual harassment operate, and presents an analysis of the population of sexual harassment cases heard by Employment Tribunals between 1995 and 2005.     

Volatility equicorrelation: A cross-market perspective

This paper contains the first empirical application of the Dynamic Equicorrelation (DECO) model to a cross-market dataset composed of equities, bonds, foreign exchange rates and commodities during 1983–2013. The originality of our approach consists of examining the volatility equicorrelations, by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’. We document that the average volatility equicorrelation across markets is around 15%, while being time-varying with regime shifts before/after September 2005 and with a low mean-reversion level.     

Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?

This article brings new insights on the role played by (implied) volatility on the WTI crude oil price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i.e. inverse leverage effect) remains the dominant effect as it might reflect the fear of oil consumers to face rising oil prices. However, this effect is amplified by an increase in the oil price subsequent to an increase in the volatility (i.e. inverse feedback effect) with a two-day delayed effect. This lead-lag relation between the oil price and its volatility is central to any type of trading strategy based on futures and options on the OVX implied volatility index. It is of interest to traders, risk- and fund-managers.     

Combining qualitative, quantitative and structural dimensions in a longitudinal perspective. The case of network influence

Some research questions involve several dimensions. The most rewarding approach may be switching (under control) between the diverse methods and databases involved. Having recourse to different dimensions that form a system produces wider results but also opens up new questions. A survey on the evolutions of social networks and life transitions of young people draws an original design including contextual names generators, questionnaires and interviews in a longitudinal perspective. Young people interviewed every 3 years on 4 survey waves produced a total of 287 interviews and networks and a global amount of 10,804 relationships informed. This article aims to highlight this specific potential of integrating qualitative, qantitative and structural dimensions in an iterative process of data construction and analysis. The methodological argument is empirically illustrated with a focus on the thematic of influence of the network upon life orientations. It shows influence comes mainly from strong central ties but also from some peripheral isolated mates. The structural evolution reveals a general trend of dissociation of their ties the ones from the others when people are entering adult life, which makes influence from the network become more and more diversified.     

Brain drain and factor complementarity

In this paper we develop an extended Solow growth model with emigration which aggregates different types of labor skills from strict complementarity to perfect substitution. The derivation of balanced growth paths shows that the most relevant cases for studying the impact of emigration are those where these paths can only be attained asymptotically. This requires and justifies the need for using transitional dynamics. We therefore derive a complete characterization of the transitional dynamics of output and wages in the sending country for all possible values taken by the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. The model then serves to qualitatively study the effect of brain drain on per capita income and wages of the sending country.     

Commodity markets through the business cycle

From 2008 to 2011, commodity markets experienced growing attention from the banking industry for various reasons: the summer 2008 oil price swing, the price surge in an ounce of gold, or sharp variations in agricultural prices. As a consequence, can we hypothesize the existence of a global connection between commodities and economic cycles? If these recent events suggest that commodity markets are strongly related to the business cycle, this evidence goes nevertheless against the widespread intuition that commodity markets are a strong source of diversification in a standard cash–bond–equity portfolio. Based on a data-set from 1990 to present, this paper investigates this issue by (i) looking at the reaction of commodity markets to economic news, and (ii) using a Markov regime-switching model to analyse economic regimes and commodity markets as an asset class.