Technological growth curves : A competition of forecasting models

In order to determine procedures for appropriate model selection of technological growth curves, numerous time series that were representative of growth behavior were collected and categorized according to data characteristics. Nine different growth curve models were each fitted onto the various data sets in an attempt to determine which growth curve models achieved the best forecasts for differing types of growth data. The analysis of the results gives rise to a new approach for selecting appropriate growth curve models for a given set of data, prior to fitting the models, based on the characteristics of the data sets.     

The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.     

Rising Powers in Complex Regimes: South African Norm Shopping in the Governance of Cross-Border Investment

ABSTRACT

This article offers a critical engagement with the literature on contemporary global power shifts and the phenomenon of ‘regime complexity’. It does so by focusing on South Africa's role in the governance of cross-border investment, and using this case to explore the strategies used by rising powers to pursue their strategic aims in institutionally complex and fragmented global governance regimes. This article situates an understanding of regime complexity within a critical constructivist literature that highlights the ambiguity of international norms and the relationship between power and strategic rhetorical action. It argues that complex regimes create space for agency and strategic action by states and highlights one specific strategy – norm shopping – that rising powers can use to legitimate their actions and challenge dominant norms in complex regimes.