Univariate Time-Series Analysis of Public Debt

Journal of Quantitative Economics - This paper presents a method whereby the properties of the undiscounted debt/GDP time-series for a country can be directly assessed in terms of components of...     

Non-renewable resources: A review of long-term projections

This article reviews available estimates of long-term future demand for the major mineral resources, together with estimates of the total world endowment of each. The confrontation of these two sets of estimates is not to be viewed as an exercise in doomsday forecasting. Rather, it yields a set of indices of the lead times available for the exploration of solutions to the problems of the demand for, and the supply of, resources. It is not obvious that market forces will be able to cope with shortages swiftly and flexibly. There is thus a need for a continuing evaluation of the long-run resource implications of world economic expansion.     

Buyer Concentration in Markets for Developing Country Exports

The authors explore the implications of buyer concentration in markets for primary commodity exports of developing countries. Simple partial equilibrium models of monopsony and oligopsony show that the best available policy for the exporting country may be to tax exports so as to extract some of the profits of the monopsonist, even though doing so will actually worsen the distortion caused by the buyer's market power. They also explore the general equilibrium implications of these results for factor markets and for patterns of trade.     

DATA SOURCES ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN BANGLADESH, INDIA, PAKISTAN AND SRI LANKA: AN EVALUATION

This paper examines the data base available in four South Asian countries, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, for the examination of trends in real inequality and poverty. Taking the position that sample surveys of household income and consumption are the only really adequate bases on which size distributions of income for a less developed country can be constructed, the paper examines in Section I the reliability of the surveys available in the four countries. Section II evaluates available price data. Section III looks at directions for future development of data collection. The conclusion is reached that sample surveys regularly conducted in these countries do not provide a particularly good basis for this type of analysis. Needed alterations include permitting access to the primary data (or redesign of published tabulations to meet the needs of this type of analysis), use of per capita rather than total household income and consumption, better coverage of regions and occupations, and exploitation of the price data implicit in the survey data collected. Further, the surveys themselves need to be overhauled, especially with regard to timing of interviews. The paper concludes with a short discussion of alternatives to estimates of inequality that can be used to measure absolute deprivation, such as the QUAC stick for identifying nutritional insufficiency.