Shakeout in the early commercial airframe industry

The commercial airframe industry in the US experienced a shakeout from the early 1930s into the post‐Second World War period. Unlike shakeouts in automobiles, tyres, or televisions, the commercial airframe industry's early life cycle was affected by external factors, particularly government demand. Using newly digitized data on all planes introduced in the commercial market between 1926 and 1965, we find that commercial airframe manufacturers with bomber contracts during the Second World War were more likely to have postwar market share than firms without such contracts, controlling for plane characteristics and other forms of government contracting. We attribute the effect of bomber contracts to advantages in R&D learning capacity acquired by firms with military airframe contracts. Despite low (or zero) initial presence in the commercial market, these learning capacity advantages allowed such firms to survive the early period of the shakeout, and later to thrive.     

Economics at the Antitrust Division: 2017–2018

This article describes some of the work of Antitrust Division economists over the past year, with a focus on modeling. It begins by illustrating the mapping from evidence to prediction using tools for assessing the effects of mergers using Bertrand, Cournot, and auction models. It then turns to two hot topics in competition policy: the implications of claims of increasing margins for merger enforcement and the validity of claims of increasing concentration. Finally, it considers how mergers affect prices in bargaining models.     

Financial development and top income shares in OECD countries

We examine the causal impact of financial development (FD) on top income shares for a panel of 14 OECD countries—five Anglo‐Saxon countries, eight continental European countries, and Japan—over a 110‐year period. In our main General Method of Moments estimates, we find that a 1‐percentage‐point change in FD increases the top 1% income share by 0.2%. In distribution terms, a 1‐SD incr=ease in FD increases the top 1% income share by around 0.4 of an SD. The effects are robust to various measures of top income shares and FD and alternative estimation techniques, including nonparametric estimation. FD is typically viewed in positive terms in that it makes it easier to access credit and facilitates economic growth. Our results are important because they contribute to understanding of the potential negative effects of FD.     

Charitable bequest importance among donors to different types of charities

This paper explores differences in the self‐rated importance of charitable estate giving depending upon the type of charitable cause a person donates to during life. One theoretical motivation for lifetime giving is to personally enjoy benefits from improving a shared collective good. However, this motivation is not possible for bequests. Bequest transfers and resulting improvements occur after personal enjoyment of benefits is no longer possible. This paper hypothesizes that among donors to high personal benefit causes (those typically creating shared goods benefitting donors), interest in a charitable bequest (which offers no opportunity for receiving such benefits) will be relatively less than among donors to low personal benefit causes. In order to explore this, each charity type is categorized as providing high, low, or mixed personal benefits from shared collective goods. This hypothesis receives mixed support. Donors to international relief organizations, a low personal benefit charity type, do place a higher importance on charitable bequests than do donors to shared‐goods type causes such as neighborhood associations, service clubs, sports leagues, or “other” charities, including those focused on local public safety and crime. However, donors to arts organizations—a classic example of donors creating a shared good—have a relatively high interest in charitable bequests. One important exception to the exclusion of postmortem personal benefits could come from religious belief. Accordingly, donors to religious causes do place a higher importance on charitable bequests.     

Beer Uses and Attitudes in the Craft Era

Abstract

This article aims to address the shifts in uses and attitudes in the era of craft beer’s growth in the United States, where brand loyalty has diminished in importance; whereas the need for exploration and trial has increased in importance. These changes have implored a need for craft beer marketers to change tactics in regards to how customers learn about new beers to try, the most trusted sources and influencers of beer choice, and how to build loyalty in an increasingly brand dis-loyal customer. The gap in research being addressed is seeking to find the pathway from how traditional beer marketers have grown brands and loyal customers to where we are today, where the customer is increasingly fickle, enjoys the newness that comes from shifting loyalties, and tends to reject brands that become too strong in this arena.     

Childhood adversity and the propensity for entrepreneurship: A quasi-experimental study of the Great Chinese Famine

Studies on the determinants of entrepreneurship emphasize that challenged adults tend to become entrepreneurs. However, research has not addressed the childhood origins surrounding the propensity for entrepreneurship. This article links childhood adversity to the propensity of individuals to become migrant entrepreneurs later in life. We test hypotheses derived from this theory in the context of whether, and when, children who survived the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 became migrant entrepreneurs. Results strongly indicate that those who survived greater hardship during the Famine are more likely to become entrepreneurs, especially when they were younger during the famine years. We also find that being younger at the time of migration increased the likelihood of becoming entrepreneurs in their new locale. Overall, this study casts light on why, how and when childhood adversity shapes the propensity for entrepreneurship.     

What determines the efficiency of Australian mining companies?

We examine the firm‐specific determinants of technical efficiency in Australian mining companies using data envelopment analysis (DEA). To do so, we employ panel data sourced from individual mining companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) over the period 2010–2014. To ensure valid statistical inference in the presence of serial correlation between DEA efficiency scores, we apply Simar and Wilson's two‐stage bootstrap method. We find that ownership concentration, firm size, firm age, product portfolio, product diversification and growth status significantly contribute to efficiency gains. However, other firm‐specific factors, such as capacity utilisation, financial risk and overseas operations appear to have limited impact on the technical efficiency of mining firms.     

On the quest for supply chain transparency through Blockchain: Lessons learned from two serialized data projects

The ability to look into the supply chain has long enticed SCM scholars and practitioners. The possibilities created by such visibility are endless—from risk reduction and continuity planning to inventory management and cost reduction, nothing is off the table when end‐to‐end visibility is a possibility. Because of such enticements, there is usually much buzz in the industry every time a new technology that promises visibility and transparency is brought forward. Yet, years later, stories sometimes emerge that said technologies either failed to deliver or were not everything they were made out to be. Blockchain is yet another emerging technology in this space. Some consultants promise that it will be the final answer to the transparency and visibility woes that companies currently face. Yet, there is little empirical investigation regarding how the technology may benefit adopters, what the bottlenecks may be, and to what extent it may be able to deliver on these promises, without massive system‐wide upgrades of extant hardware and computing prowess. The current study takes a step in this direction by investigating a blockchain‐driven proof of concept across an industry consortium to identify promises, possibilities, and challenges of blockchain.     

Eye-tracking evidence that happy faces impair verbal message comprehension: the case of health warnings in direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical television commercials

Risk warning or disclosure information in advertising is only effective in correcting consumers’ judgments if enough cognitive capacity is available to process that information. Hence, comprehension of verbal warnings in TV commercials may suffer if accompanied by positive visual elements. This research addresses this concern about cross-modality interference in the context of direct-to-consumer (DTC) pharmaceutical commercials in the United States by experimentally testing whether positive facial expressions reduce consumers’ understanding of the mandated health warning. A content analysis of a sample of DTC commercials reveals that positive facial expressions are more prevalent during the verbal warning act of the commercials than during the other acts. An eye-tracking experiment conducted with specially produced DTC commercials, which vary the valence of characters’ facial expressions during the health warning, provides evidence that happy faces reduce objective comprehension of the warning.