CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria

A dominant trend in the literature maintains that donor assistance should be targeted at poor countries with sound institutions and policies. In this context, donor selectivity refers to what extent aid is allocated according to the principles of this ‘canonical’ model. This paper shows that it is legitimate for donors to simultaneously use other selectivity criteria corresponding either to expected factors of aid effectiveness or to handicaps to development. It is notably argued that vulnerability to exogenous shocks and low level of human capital should be considered as selectivity criteria. Taking these other criteria into account dramatically changes the assessment of donor selectivity.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY,AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

Financial development might lead to productivity improvement in developing countries. In the present study, based on the Data Envelopment Analysis approach, we use the Malmquist index to measure China's total factor productivity change and its two components (i.e., efficiency change and technical progress). We find that China has recorded an increase in total factor productivity from 1993 to 2001, and that productivity growth was mostly attributed to technical progress, rather than to improvement in efficiency. Moreover, using panel dataset covering 29 Chinese provinces over the period from 1993 to 2001 and applying the Generalized Method of Moment system estimation, we investigate the impact of financial development on productivity growth in China. Empirical results show that, during this period, financial development has significantly contributed to China's productivity growth, mainly through its favorable effect on efficiency.     

Deflation in China

This article investigates the causes of deflation China has experienced since 1998. The analysis is based on a theoretical model which makes the distinction between tradable and non-tradable goods and on the estimation of a reduced equation of consumer price variations for the period 1986–2002. The empirical results corroborate the theoretical predictions. The main conclusion is that the slowing down of inflation and the fall of prices are chiefly explained by Chinese macroeconomic policy. Moreover and contrary to current opinion we find that deflation is partly due to the deceleration of productivity growth in the tradable sector.     

How does real exchange rate influence labour productivity in China?

Since China's transition to a market economy, the labour productivity growth has been dramatically rapid, in particular since 1994. This speeding up has been accompanied by the reverse of the exchange rate policy of China, which has strongly depreciated its currency before 1994, and then either appreciated or stabilized it. The theoretical arguments suggesting several kinds of real exchange rate impact on labour productivity are developed. An econometric model is then proposed and estimated, using panel data for the twenty-nine Chinese provinces and for the period from 1986 to 2007. The econometric results show that the appreciation of the real exchange rate had a favourable effect on the labour productivity growth, leading to a kind of virtuous circle: the real appreciation of the currency boosts the growth of labour productivity while, according to the Balassa–Samuelson effect, productivity growth tends to push up the real appreciation. Moreover, this favourable effect is stronger in inland provinces than in coastal provinces, contributing to a minimizing of the gap between inland and coastal provinces.     

Why Do More Open Chinese Provinces Have Bigger Governments?

The transition of China towards a market economy was accompanied by a vast fiscal decentralization movement. Econometric analysis of the determinants of public expenditure of the Chinese provinces does not permit rejection of the hypotheses that (i) the behavior of provinces is similar to that of governments in developing economies significantly affected by external shocks, and (ii) in order to alleviate external risk, they take control of a more significant share of the revenues of the economy.     

Volatility widens inequality. Could aid and remittances help?

Review of World Economics - We analyse the relationship between income volatility and inequality and the conditional role played by aid and remittances. Using a panel of 142 countries for the...     

Deforestation and the real exchange rate

Deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world. We construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land. We show that: (i) lower discount rates and stronger institutions decrease deforestation; (ii) a depreciation in the real exchange rate increases deforestation in developing countries whereas the opposite obtains in developed countries; (iii) paradoxically, better institutions may exacerbate the deleterious impact of a depreciation in developing countries. These hypotheses are tested on an annual sample of 101 countries over the 1961–1988 period, and are not rejected by the data. Our results suggest that short-term macroeconomic policy, institutional factors, and the interaction between the two, are potentially important determinants of environmental outcomes.     

The transactions demand for money in the presence of currency substitution: evidence from Vietnam

Currency substitution – the use of foreign money to finance transactions between domestic residents – is widespread in low income and transition economies. Traditionally, however, empirical models of the demand for money tend to concentrate on the portfolio motive for holding foreign currency, while maintaining the assumption that the income elasticity of demand for domestic money is invariant to the degree of currency substitution. A simple re-specification of the demand for money is offered which more accurately reflects the process of currency substitution by allowing for a variable income elasticity of demand for domestic money. This specification is estimated for Vietnam in the 1990s. Using a standard cointegration framework evidence is found for currency substitution only in the long-run but well-defined wealth effects operating in the short-run.