An updated ranking of academic journals in economics

Abstract We conduct an update of the ranking of economic journals by Kalaitzidakis, Mamuneas, and Stengos (2003) . However, our present study differs methodologically from that earlier study in an important dimension. We use a rolling window of years between 2003 and 2008, for each year counting the number of citations of articles published in the previous 10 years. This allows us to obtain a smoother longer view of the evolution of rankings in the period under consideration and avoid the inherent randomness that may exist at any particular year, because of new entrants.     

Bond pricing when the short-term interest rate follows a threshold process

This paper derives analytical solutions for arbitrage-free bond yields when the short-term interest rate follows an autoregressive process with the intercept switching endogenously. This process from the SETAR family is especially suited to capture the near-unit-root behaviour typically observed in the evolution of short-term interest rates. The derived yield functions, mapping the one-month rate into n-period yields, exhibit a convex/concave shape to the left and right of the threshold value, respectively, a pattern which is also found in US bond yield data. The longer the time to maturity, the more distinct the nonlinearity of the yield function becomes.     

The good,the bad and the ugly: agent behavior and efficiency in open and closed organizations

Current literature has largely ignored the fact that some organizations are highly selective when admitting new agents while others are more open. In addition, some organizations audit or sort agent behavior within the organization more aggressively than others. One might expect a priori that closed, highly selective, organizations would always be more efficient because they screen out the worst types, which could lead to better agent behavior. We show that this is not the case. Specifically, when agent behavior in equilibrium is uniform across organizations (i.e., when the number of agents behaving the same way is identical), closed organizations are inefficient. However, when agent behavior varies across organizations, closed organizations may or may not be inefficient, depending on net payoffs to the organization and the agents. Our analysis implies that organizations should choose the open type when screening or sorting costs are high, when there is a high frequency of good agent types in the population, when agent misbehavior does not reduce output significantly, and when penalties for misbehavior are large. The paper has benefitted from useful comments by David Flath, Charles Knoeber, Claudio Mezzetti, two anonymous referees and participants of the Spring 2005 Midwest Economic Theory meetings at Vanderbilt University, the 2005 meetings of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory in Vigo, Spain, the 2005 conference on Research in Economic Theory and Econometrics in Syros, Greece, and workshops at North Carolina State University, Texas A&M University and McGill University.     

Strategic transmission of information and short-term commitment

Summary. We examine the strategic role of information transmission in a repeated principal-agent relationship where the agent produces information that is useful to the principal. The agent values continuous employment for the principal because he makes a relationship-specific investment that can yield rents to him when the relationship is renewed. Assuming that the parties are sufficiently impatient, we show that full disclosure of the information produced occurs early in the relationship when the principal can commit to a long-term relationship, when the agent observes his valuation of continuous employment after making a report on information produced, or when the agent obtains a low valuation of continuous employment before making a report. By contrast, a strategic delay in the transmission of information occurs when the principal can only commit to a short-term relationship and the agent obtains a high valuation of continuous employment before making a report. Received: October 15, 1997; revised version: July 27, 1998     

Specification and sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions

We compare the sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions based on extreme bounds analysis to a more direct specification testing approach using non-nested hypotheses tests. The results suggest that those specifications that are adequate are also those that include two of the only few conditioning variables that are found to be robust, namely the standard deviation of inflation and the standard deviation of domestic credit. First Version Received: November 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

A non-linear sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions

We extend the sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions of Levine and Renelt (1992) by introducing a semi-parametric formulation of their regression function. Our results differ from theirs in how certain policy variables affect growth rates. We find that distortion variables, such as the standard deviation of gross domestic credit and inflation and real exchange rate distortions, have a robust negative effect on growth. JEL Classification: O47, C14
Une analyse de sensibilité non-linéaire des régressions de croissance pour divers pays. Les auteurs utilisent une formulation semi-paramétrique des équations de croissance de Levine et Renelt (1992) pour divers pays afin de rendre leur analyse de sensibilité plus compréhensive. Les résultats different de ceux de Levine et Renelt en ce que certaines variables de politique affectent les taux de croissance. On découvre que certains facteurs comme l'écart type du crédit intérieur brut et de l'inflation, et des distorsions des taux de change réels, ont un effet négatif important sur la croissance.     

Threshold Dynamics of Short-term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The short-term interest rate follows a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process that allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favour of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure captures stylized facts of the data. In particular, it implies a nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate.     

Economic development and the return to human capital: a smooth coefficient semiparametric approach

This paper investigates the impact of human capital on the process of economic growth by allowing the contribution of traditional inputs (capital and labour) as well as that of human capital to vary both across countries and time. The former is accomplished by constructing an index of TFP growth for traditional inputs, while the latter through semiparametric methods. We derive estimates of the output elasticity and social return to human capital for 51 countries at various stages of economic development. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comparative Simulation Study of Wavelet Shrinkage Estimators for Poisson Counts

Using computer simulations, the finite sample performance of a number of classical and Bayesian wavelet shrinkage estimators for Poisson counts is examined. For the purpose of comparison, a variety of intensity functions, background intensity levels, sample sizes, primary resolution levels, wavelet filters and performance criteria are employed. A demonstration is given of the use of some of the estimators to analyse a data set arising in high-energy astrophysics. Following the philosophy of reproducible research, the M atlab programs and real-life data example used in this study are made freely available.     

The Effect of Public Infrastructure on Cost Structure and Performance of Chinese Provinces*

This paper estimates a translog cost function for 29 Chinese provinces between 1979 and 2018. The results imply that investment in public infrastructure reduces costs in all provinces. Comparing the estimated rate of return to infrastructure with the rate of return to private capital, our results indicate underinvestment for the initial period after the economic reforms; however, after 2010 our results show overinvestment in infrastructure. Infrastructure capital is a substitute input to labor, private capital and intermediate inputs. Finally, public infrastructure growth contributes positively to labor and total factor productivity growth, but the effect is small. The growth of private capital and intermediate inputs are the most important factors that boost the growth of labor productivity.