Empirische Analyse des Einflusses der Überschussbeteiligung auf Neugeschäft und Storno

Recently, German insurers are becoming increasingly interested in assessing and modelling risks related to new business and lapses. The final report of a DAV (German actuarial association) working party on stochastic models for German life insurance companies, released end of 2005, includes some basic approaches for this purpose. However, so far no systematic empirical research has been carried out which provides evidence for an appropriate calibration of such models. This article contributes to closing the gap. It presents the main results of an empirical analysis on the influence of policyholders’ profit participation on new business and lapses based on data about 87 German life insurance companies from 1995—2004. Analyses of regression and correlation were performed for various definitions of the explanatory variable ?profit participation“ (more precisely: the spread to some average value) and with diverse reference parameters for new business and lapses, also considering different types of life insurance. Ultimately, the exploration scarcely yielded evidence for a significant general correlation between policyholders’ profit participation and new business or lapses. However, because of the individuality of life insurance business such an evaluation of historical data can certainly only be regarded as a building block for the overall picture, as is also explained in the paper in some more detail.     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

Disequilibrium dynamics in a simple macroeconomic model

The dynamic behavior of a simple macroeconomic disequilibrium model is analyzed in which consumers' changes in money holdings constitute the dynamic link between any two periods. It is shown that, under constant government consumption, a constant production function (no investment), and fixed prices and wages, stationary states of Keynesian unemployment are stable whereas those of repressed inflation are globally unstable. Possibilities of unemployment and output cycles are indicated for fixed wages as well as for some very simple class of wage and price adjustment mechanisms.     

The raw material basis of global value chains: allocating environmental responsibility based on value generation

A new approach to allocate environmental responsibility, the ‘value added-based responsibility’ allocation, is presented in this article. This metric allocates total environmental pressures occurring along an international supply chain to the participating sectors and countries according to the share of value added they generate within that specific supply chain. We show that – due to their position in global value chains – certain sectors (e.g. services) and countries (e.g. Germany) receive significantly greater responsibility compared to other allocation approaches. This adds a new perspective to the discussions concerning a fair distribution of mitigation costs among nations, companies and consumers.     

Bitcoins,Blockchain und Distributed Ledgers

Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin were invented to facilitate instant payment services without the need for a central bank or financial intermediaries executing payments. Using cryptographic functions, any user of the bitcoin system can transfer units of the virtual currency globally on an anonymous basis. However, financial supervisory authorities are about to increase regulation of virtual currencies due to concerns that the anonymous character of the system facilitates money laundering and the financing of illegal transactions. Nevertheless, the underlying blockchain technology, or in broader terms the distributed ledger technology, may revolutionise several industries. This paper illustrates the functioning and recent market developments in the bitcoin industry as well as the disruptive potential of the underlying technologies.     

Libra — A Differentiated View on Facebook’s Virtual Currency Project

Intereconomics - Libra — a global virtual currency project initiated by Facebook — has been the subject of many controversial discussions since its announcement in June 2019. This paper...     

Reducing tourism's threats to biodiversity: effects of a voluntary sustainability standard and training program on 106 Latin American hotels,lodges and guesthouses

The tourism industry can negatively affect wildlife, plants and natural ecosystems through habitat destruction, pollution, over-exploitation of natural resources and visitor impacts to sensitive ecosystems. One approach to mitigate such threats is the application of voluntary sustainability standards, supported by training of tourism enterprises and verified by external audits. The Rainforest Alliance standard defines 78 criteria (requirements) for sustainable environmental, social and business practices, and has been adopted by over 600 tourism enterprises – including hotels, lodges and tour boats – in 12 countries. We examined the performance of 106 hotels in six Latin American countries against 29 of the sustainable tourism criteria most directly related to biodiversity conservation. Independent audits were used to assess hotel performance at baseline followed by a repeat assessment after training, about two years later. Mean conformance with the 29 biodiversity criteria increased significantly during this interval, from 44% to 58%. Improvements were greatest for businesses in the lowest third of performance at baseline (laggards) and smallest for hotels in the highest third (leaders). The results indicate that a voluntary sustainability standard and training program can serve both to recognize existing good actors and to drive incremental improvement in enterprises that were previously less sustainable.     

The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated US recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the US economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve??s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates.