Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators*

This paper presents a convenient shortcut method for implementing the Heckman estimator of the dynamic random effects probit model and other dynamic nonlinear panel data models using standard software. It then compares the estimators proposed by Heckman, Orme and Wooldridge, based on three alternative approximations, first in an empirical model for the probability of unemployment and then in a set of simulation experiments. The results indicate that none of the three estimators dominates the other two in all cases. In most cases, all three estimators display satisfactory performance, except when the number of time periods is very small.     

The direct incidence of corporate income tax on wages

A stylised model is provided to show how the direct effect of corporate income tax on wages can be identified in a bargaining framework using cross-company variation in tax liabilities, conditional on value added per employee. Using data on 55,082 companies located in nine European countries over the period 1996–2003, we estimate the long run elasticity of the wage bill with respect to taxation to be ?0.093. Evaluated at the mean, this implies that an exogenous rise of $1 in tax would reduce the wage bill by 49 cents. Only a weak evidence of a difference for multinational companies is found.     

Electoral goals and center-state transfers: A theoretical model and empirical evidence from India

We construct a model of redistributive politics where the central government is opportunistic and uses its discretion to make transfers to state governments on the basis of political considerations. These considerations are the alignment between the incumbent parties at the central and state levels and whether a state is a swing state or not. A testable prediction from the model is that a state that is both swing and aligned with the central government is especially likely to receive higher transfers. We test this prediction using Indian data for 14 states from 1974–75 to 1996–97. We find that a state which is both aligned and swing in the last state election is estimated to receive 16% higher transfers than a state which is unaligned and non-swing.     

A Note on Estimated Coefficients in Random Effects Probit Models

This note points out to applied researchers what adjustments are needed tothe coefficient estimates in a random effects probit model in order to make valid comparisons in terms of coefficient estimates and marginal effects across different specifications. These adjustments are necessary because of the normalization that is used by standard software in order to facilitate easyestimation of the random effects probit model.     

Modelling the process of job search

This paper is concerned with the specification and estimation of a genuinely structural but static model of individual search behaviour in which the estimated reservation wage actually satisfies the optimality condition. The identification of the parameters of interest is achieved by the a priori specification of the vacancy-wage distribution. The model is estimated using the data from the 1978–1979 D.H.S.S. Cohort Study of the Unemployed. The estimated parameters reflect, in the main, our prior views and generate a number of interesting results. In particular the elasticity of unemployment spell duration with respect to unemployment benefits is estimated to be around 0.18–0.26.     

Unemployment persistence

We estimate dynamic panel data models of unemployment incidencefor men using the British Household Panel Survey. Econometricissues concerning unobserved individual heterogeneity, genuinestate dependence, and the initial conditions problems are addressedin detail. We find strong evidence of state dependence consistentwith the scarring theory of unemployment - an individual's previousunemployment experience has implications for his future labourmarket experience. This suggests that policies reducing shortrun employment incidence will have longer-run effects by reducingthe equilibrium or natural rate of unemployment.     

An investigation into the givings by large corporate donors to UK charities, 1979—86

This paper, the first study of its kind to-date carried out for the UK, is concerned with the scale and determinants of charitable givings by large corporate donors in the UK. The investigation is carried out using pooled information on 53 companies over the 8 years from 1979 to 1986 during which period the rate of corporation tax fell from 52% to 35%. A result of particular interest is that contributions were related positively to the rate of tax.     

Training and Labour Market Flexibility: Is There a Trade-off?

This paper explores the nexus between work-related training and labour market 'flexibility' (which we proxy by contract type, part-time employment and lack of union coverage), using the first five waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) conducted over the period 1991–5. Our results show that workers on short-term employment contracts, who are working part-time or are not covered by a union collective agreement, are significantly less likely to be involved in any work-related training to improve or increase their skills. These findings suggest that there is a trade-off between expanding the more marginal forms of employment and expanding the proportion of the work-force getting work-related training.