Asymmetric Loss and the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South Korea

We examine asymmetry in the loss functions of South Korean consumers' and the Bank of Korea's (BOK) inflation forecasts, and test the rationality of these forecasts under the assumption of a possible asymmetric loss function. Under an asymmetric loss function, we find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality. We also examine whether the BOK's forecasts incorporate respective forecasts and consensus forecasts efficiently. They broadly use available information efficiently, and their results are robust to inflation‐targeting measures and the recent global financial crisis. However, our results suggest that the information efficiency of the BOK's forecasts for consumers was affected during the period 2007–2008.     

Reflecting inequality of claims in gains and losses

We consider the problem of dividing a resource among a group of agents who have conflicting claims on it. We follow the axiomatic approach and investigate the class of rules satisfying claims-inequality and claims-order preservation in gains and losses. We show that these axioms single out the proportional rule when there are more than three agents. This result confirms the central role of this rule and furthers our understanding of it in claims problems.     

New product introduction under demand uncertainty in competitive industries

A game-theoretic model is employed to examine the conditions under which firms in a duopoly, faced with a new product introduction opportunity of uncertain profitability (because of uncertainty in demand), choose to enter the market immediately or, alternatively, decide to wait, thereby avoiding the risk of failure. The implications for a firm's strategic behavior are contrasted with situations in which the competitor is believed to be (1) passive, implying that the firm expects to enjoy indefinite monopoly status if it introduces the new product, and (2) committed to a waiting strategy, implying monopoly status for a limited time period, if the new product is successful.     

THE POLITICAL ELEMENT IN THE WORKS OF W. ARTHUR LEWIS: THE 1954 LEWIS MODEL AND AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT

William Arthur Lewis, the Nobel Prize awardee in 1979, was actively involved in politics and policymaking. During World War II, Lewis was appointed to be a young advisor to the British Colonial Office where he came into direct collision with the mainstream laissez‐faire philosophy. After the War, Lewis took the lead in a Fabian conference on colonial question, and his encounter with Kwame Nkrumah eventually compelled him to write an important monograph on the prospect of plural governance in Africa. Through a rereading of Lewis's original texts, it is demonstrated that his emphasis on peasant‐led agricultural development and advocacy of political pluralism were consistently manifested in his academic and nonacademic writings on tropical regions, especially on Africa, contrary to the conventional interpretation of his 1954 model of “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour,” which has tended to pin much faith on top‐down industrialization.     

Political Accountability,Electoral Control and Media Bias

Are anti‐establishment mass media really useful in preventing politicians from behaving dishonestly? This paper models the direction of media bias, and shows that the probability of a dishonest action by an incumbent is higher (than that in the case of no media bias) if and only if the mass media have some degree of “anti‐incumbent” bias (i.e. information favourable to the incumbent is converted into unfavourable news about the incumbent with a positive probability), provided that the incumbent is less likely to be opportunistic than a challenger in the upcoming election. This result holds irrespective of the degree of “pro‐incumbent” bias.     

Some international evidence on the stability of aggregate import demand function

This paper empirically analyses the stability of the aggregate import demand function for G7 countries. The standard cointegration test and a test developed by Gregory and Hansen are performed. The results of standard cointegration tests suggest that there is no stable cointegrating relation between real import, real GDP and relative import price for all G7 countries. The cointegrating relation is empirically supported for France and Germany if structural change for cointegrating vector is explicitly taken into consideration. The cointegrating relation is empirically rejected for Canada, Italy, Japan, the UK and the USA. Thus, the stimulation of domestic business conditions will not necessarily link the quantity of imports for these five countries.     

Commercial Policy and Foreign Ownership

Foreign multinationals often not only export but also control local firms through FDI. This paper examines the various effects of trade and industrial policies when exports and FDI coexist. We focus on the case in which a foreign firm has full control of a local firm through partial ownership. Cross‐border ownership on the basis of both financial interests and corporate control leads to horizontal market linkages through which tariffs and production subsidies may harm locally owned firms but benefit the foreign firm. Foreign ownership regulation benefits locally owned firms. These results could have strong policy implications for developing countries that attract an increasing share of world FDI.     

Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach to a Markov switching cointegration model that allows the cointegration relationships to be switched on and off depending on the regime. Unlike a classical method for nonlinear cointegration model that uses the cointegrating vector based on a linear cointegration model, the proposed Bayesian method allows for estimation of the cointegrating vector within a nonlinear framework conditional on the regime variables through the Gibbs sampling so that it generates more reliable estimation. The Bayes factors are applied to test for Markov switching and model specifications. The purchasing power parity (PPP) relationship between UK and US is investigated using the proposed model for illustration.     

Energy analysis of Japanese industries : A time series analysis

Characteristics of Japanese industries in the past 15 years have been investigated in terms of energy intensities, or energy directly and indirectly spent for production of a unit output in industries. The methodology of the analysis is similar to that by Herendern, that is an extension of input-output approach, but with various modifications. Data are seven input-output tables, of about 400 x 400 items published by the Japanese government. Changes in energy intensities with time are disaggregated into two factors, 1) changes in direct energy intensities and 2) changes in nonenergy resource use or in the ratios of value added taxes. Observation of these factors in the last 15 years reveals that the latter factor has been highly significant in energy conservation, especially in machine industries, the raw materials of which are mainly iron and steel. It is also observed that conventional energy conservation efforts have scarcely been dependent on nonenergy resource conservation.