Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach

We propose to extend the cointegration rank determination procedure of Robinson and Yajima [2002. Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems. Journal of Econometrics 106, 217–242] to accommodate both (asymptotically) stationary and nonstationary fractionally integrated processes as the common stochastic trends and cointegrating errors by applying the exact local Whittle analysis of Shimotsu and Phillips [2005. Exact local Whittle estimation of fractional integration. Annals of Statistics 33, 1890–1933]. The proposed method estimates the cointegrating rank by examining the rank of the spectral density matrix of the d$d$th differenced process around the origin, where the fractional integration order, d$d$, is estimated by the exact local Whittle estimator. Similar to other semiparametric methods, the approach advocated here only requires information about the behavior of the spectral density matrix around the origin, but it relies on a choice of (multiple) bandwidth(s) and threshold parameters. It does not require estimating the cointegrating vector(s) and is easier to implement than regression-based approaches, but it only provides a consistent estimate of the cointegration rank, and formal tests of the cointegration rank or levels of confidence are not available except for the special case of no cointegration. We apply the proposed methodology to the analysis of exchange rate dynamics among a system of seven exchange rates. Contrary to both fractional and integer-based parametric approaches, which indicate at most one cointegrating relation, our results suggest three or possibly four cointegrating relations in the data.     

Modified Quasi‐Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching

In this paper we propose a modified quasi‐likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of one regime against the alternative of two regimes in Markov regime‐switching models. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is a simple function of Gaussian random variables, and the inference is no more complicated than in the standard case. Our simulations show that the proposed test has good finite sample size and power that are comparable to the quasi‐likelihood ratio test of Cho and White. We apply our test to stock returns and Japanese policy functions.     

Exact local Whittle estimation of fractionally cointegrated systems

Semiparametric estimation of a bivariate fractionally cointegrated system is considered. We propose a two-step procedure that accommodates both (asymptotically) stationary (δ<1/2)$(\delta <1/2)$ and nonstationary (δ≥1/2)$(\delta \ge 1/2)$ stochastic trend and/or equilibrium error. A tapered version of the local Whittle estimator of Robinson (2008) is used as the first-stage estimator, and the second-stage estimator employs the exact local Whittle approach of Shimotsu and Phillips (2005). The consistency and asymptotic distribution of the two-step estimator are derived. The estimator of the memory parameters has the same Gaussian asymptotic distribution in both the stationary and the nonstationary case. The convergence rate and the asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the cointegrating vector are affected by the difference between the memory parameters. Further, the estimator has a Gaussian asymptotic distribution when the difference between the memory parameters is less than 1/2.     

An Interactive Independent Topic Analysis for a Mass Document Review Service

In this paper, we propose an interactive constrained independent topic analysis in text data mining. Independent topic analysis (ITA) is a method for extracting independent topics from document data using independent component analysis. In this independent topic analysis, the most independent topics between each topic are extracted. By extracting the independent topic, managing documents with a large number of text data is easy with document access support systems and document management systems. However, the topics extracted by ITA are often different from the topics a user requests. For the system to be of service to users, an interactive system that reflects the user’s requests is necessary. Thus, we propose an interactive ITA that works for the user. For example, if there are three topics, i.e., topic A, topic B, and topic C, and a user choose the content from topics A and B, a user can merge those topics into one topic D. In addition, if a user wants to analyze topic A in more detail, a user could separate topic A into topics E and topic F. To that end, we define Merge Link constraints and Separate Link constraints as user requests. The Merge Link constraint is a constraint that merges two topics into one topic. The Separate Link constraint is a constraint that separates two topics from one topic. In this paper, we propose a method for extracting a highly independent topic that meets these constraints. We conducted evaluation experiments on our proposed methods, and obtained results to show the effectiveness of our approach.     

Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models

This paper analyzes the higher-order properties of the estimators based on the nested pseudo-likelihood (NPL) algorithm and the practical implementation of such estimators for parametric discrete Markov decision models. We derive the rate at which the NPL algorithm converges to the MLE and provide a theoretical explanation for the simulation results in Aguirregabiria and Mira [Aguirregabiria, V., Mira, P., 2002. Swapping the nested fixed point algorithm: A class of estimators for discrete Markov decision models. Econometrica 70, 1519–1543], in which iterating the NPL algorithm improves the accuracy of the estimator. We then propose a new NPL algorithm that can achieve quadratic convergence without fully solving the fixed point problem in every iteration and apply our estimation procedure to a finite mixture model. We also develop one-step NPL bootstrap procedures for discrete Markov decision models. The Monte Carlo simulation evidence based on a machine replacement model of Rust [Rust, J., 1987. Optimal replacement of GMC bus engines: An empirical model of Harold Zurcher. Econometrica 55, 999–1033] shows that the proposed one-step bootstrap test statistics and confidence intervals improve upon the first order asymptotics even with a relatively small number of iterations.     

Current accounts of Japanese airports

The paper examines the current account of 41 major airports. When we exclude depreciation costs, only seven airports are profitable. When depreciation is excluded, only three airports are making profits. Airports managed by local governments are very difficult to sustain financially without subsidies. Airports with more than 5.2 million passengers are profitable when depreciation is taken into account, however most local airports have fewer than 2.5 million passengers. When depreciation costs are excluded, airports need at least 2.7 million passengers to be viable.     

A HEDONIC ANALYSIS OF LAND PRICES IN YAMANASHI PREFECTURE, JAPAN

This paper presents a hedonic analysis of residential land prices in Yamanashi Prefecture for the period 1985–1995. The main purpose is to divide Yamanashi Prefecture (including selected attached areas) into Tokyo-influenced and Kofu-influenced areas. This was accomplished by finding the minimum sum of squared residuals following two hedonic regressions. One regression uses access to Tokyo Station, the other access to Kofu Station. We find that the Tokyo-influenced area expanded during the period studied.     

Gaussian semiparametric estimation of multivariate fractionally integrated processes

This paper analyzes the semiparametric estimation of multivariate long-range dependent processes. The class of spectral densities considered is motivated by and includes those of multivariate fractionally integrated processes. The paper establishes the consistency of the multivariate Gaussian semiparametric estimator (GSE), which has not been shown in other work, and the asymptotic normality of the GSE estimator. The proposed GSE estimator is shown to have a smaller limiting variance than the two-step GSE estimator studied by Lobato [1999. A semiparametric two-step estimator in a multivariate long memory model. Journal of Econometrics 90, 129–153]. Gaussianity is not assumed in the asymptotic theory. Some simulations confirm the relevance of the asymptotic results in samples of the size used in practical work.     

Improvement in finite sample properties of the Hansen–Jagannathan distance test

Jagannathan and Wang [Jagannthan, R., and Wang, Z., “The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns.” Journal of Finance, 51 (1996), 3–53] derive the asymptotic distribution of the Hansen–Jagannathan distance (HJ-distance) proposed by Hansen and Jagannathan [Hansen, L.P., and Jagannathan, R., Assessing specific errors in stochastic discount factor models." Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 557–590], and develop a specification test of asset pricing models based on the HJ-distance. While the HJ-distance has several desirable properties, Ahn and Gadarowski [Ahn, S.C., and Gadarowski, C., “Small sample properties of the GMM specification test based on the Hansen–Jagannathan distance.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 11 (2004), 109–132] find that the specification test based on the HJ-distance overrejects correct models too severely in commonly used sample size to provide a valid test. This paper proposes to improve the finite sample properties of the HJ-distance test by applying the shrinkage method [Ledoit, O., and Wolf, M., “Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 10 (2003), 603–621] to compute its weighting matrix. The proposed method improves the finite sample performance of the HJ-distance test significantly.