Does Central Bank Financial Strength Really Matter for Inflation? The Key Role of the Fiscal Support

This paper examines whether weak central bank finances affect inflation by scrutinizing the key rationale for such a relationship: that the absence of Treasury support makes central bank finances relevant for price stability. Specifically, I ask whether central banks which are not likely to enjoy fiscal support when needed experience higher inflation as their financial situation deteriorates. I find this to be true among a large sample of 82 countries between 1998 and 2008. De facto potential fiscal support appears relevant, while de jure fiscal support, which I survey analyzing 82 central bank laws, does not appear to matter. The results also bring forward an explanation for the conflicting results of the previous empirical studies, which neglected this key component.     

Option pricing in the moderate deviations regime

We consider call option prices close to expiry in diffusion models, in an asymptotic regime (“moderately out of the money”) that interpolates between the well‐studied cases of at‐the‐money and out‐of‐the‐money regimes. First and higher order small‐time moderate deviation estimates of call prices and implied volatilities are obtained. The expansions involve only simple expressions of the model parameters, and we show how to calculate them for generic local and stochastic volatility models. Some numerical computations for the Heston model illustrate the accuracy of our results.     

Relating ultrasonic vocalizations from a pair of rats to individual behavior: A composite link model approach

Ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) are crucial in the social behavior of rats. We aim to relate USV rates of pairs of rats to individual activity in an automated home cage (PhenoTyper®) where USVs are recorded per pair and not per individual. We propose a composite link model approach to parametrize a mechanistic “sum‐of‐rates” model in which the pair's USV rate is the sum of the USV rates of individuals depending on their own behavior. In generalized linear models (GLMs), the individual's USV rates are multiplied. We verified through simulation that composite link model gave lower Poisson deviance than GLM. We analyzed the data from an experiment in which half of the cages did allow the pairs to interact (Pair Housing) and the other half did not (Individual Housing). The “sum‐of‐rates” model fits best for Individual Housing and GLM for Pair Housing. An additional simulation study strongly suggests that interaction between rats changes the underlying mechanism for vocalization behavior.     

Moment explosions in the rough Heston model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - We show that the moment explosion time in the rough Heston model, introduced by El Euch and Rosenbaum in 2016, is finite if and only if it is finite for the...     

Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?

Using VAR models for the USA, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a persistent negative impact on the level of commercial bank assets, but increases the assets of shadow banks and securitization activity. To explain this “waterbed” effect, we propose a standard New Keynesian model featuring both commercial and shadow banks, and we show that the model comes close to explaining the empirical results. Our findings cast doubt on the idea that monetary policy can usefully “get in all the cracks” of the financial sector in a uniform way.     

WHAT DO VARS TELL US ABOUT THE IMPACT OF A CREDIT SUPPLY SHOCK?

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, a variety of structural vector autoregression (VAR) models have been proposed to identify credit supply shocks. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, we show that the performance of these models can vary substantially, with some identification schemes producing particularly misleading results. When applied to U.S. data, the estimates from the best performing VAR models indicate, on average, that credit supply shocks that raise spreads by 10 basis points reduce GDP growth and inflation by 1% after one year. These shocks were important during the Great Recession, accounting for about half the decline in GDP growth.