Do the COVID-19 Crisis,Ageing and Climate Change Put Swiss Fiscal Sustainability at Risk?

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic crisis as well as demographic and climate change pose major challenges for public finances. This article deals with the implications of demographic trends in Switzerland, i.e. the progressive ageing of the population and its impact on the country’s public finances in the long run. As the analysis shows, the brunt of the demographic burden is borne by the old-age pension scheme, health and long-term care. This article also addresses the financial ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis and shows the need for economic policy action over the longer term to ensure the sustainability of public finances in Switzerland. Furthermore, a qualitative assessment of climate change is included, as it constitutes an additional major long-term challenge for public finances.

     

Population ageing in healthcare – a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland

Our study shows that population ageing is a relevant determinant of healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming population ageing will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the determinants of Swiss HCE with outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost-effective and productive medical advances.     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE – A COMMENT

In contrast to the commonly held view, Bergh and Henrekson (2011) conclude that a consensus has almost been reached on the thesis that government size is negatively correlated with economic growth in developed countries. They underpin this by claiming that the only study in the survey to deviate from this consensus view, i.e. Colombier (2009), was rebutted by Bergh and Öhrn (2011). This comment shows that the claim by Bergh and Henrekson (2011) cannot be upheld because the analysis by Bergh and Öhrn (2011) is based on a flawed dataset. The re‐estimation of Colombier's (2009) regressions with time‐fixed effect does not reject his main findings. Moreover, it is demonstrated that recent empirical evidence on the growth impact of government size in rich countries is not as unanimous as the survey by Bergh and Henrekson (2011) suggests. Thus, the claim that a consensus view has been reached is premature.     

A Note on Public Input Specifications

Public or fiscal policy is sometimes concerned with the provision of some infrastructure. This paper deals with the specification of such infrastructures as public inputs. Among other things, and in contrast to relevant literature, it is shown that there is no identity between various public inputs concepts. Thus, the results help to avoid misspecifications and may contribute to better public policy designs concerning the provision of infrastructures.     

Intergenerational correlation in self employment: some further evidence from French ECHP data

Previous empirical work has shown that self-employment is correlated across generations, so that the children of the self-employed are themselves more likely to be self-employed. However, the reason for this intergenerational correlation remains unclear. This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, using French data from the European Community Household Panel Survey, we provide a further examination of this intergenerational correlation among the self-employed. In particular we investigate to what extent the intergenerational correlation in self-employment reflects occupational following. The second contribution of our paper is to investigate the differences between first- and second-generation self-employed workers and their possible explanations. Even though our results indicate that having self-employed parents increases the probability of being self-employed, irrespective of occupation, we do observe that a large majority of individuals enter the same (or very similar) occupation as their parents, which is consistent with occupational following. Our results also reveal some differences between the first- and second-generation self-employed. Formal education is more important for the first-generation self-employed (those whose parents are not self-employed) than for the second-generation self-employed. Further, the first-generation self-employed, who received less informal human capital than the second-generation self-employed, compensate for this shortcoming by acquiring more formal education.

Group and individual risk preferences: A lottery-choice experiment with self-employed and salaried workers

This paper focuses on decision making under risk, comparing group and individual risk preferences in a lottery-choice experiment. In the individual treatment, subjects make choices individually; in the group treatment, each subject placed in a group made lottery choice via voting. In the choice treatment, subjects choose whether to be on their own or in a group. The originality of this research lies in the fact that we introduced variability in socio-demographic characteristics by recruiting salaried and self-employed workers. Our main findings indicate that groups are more likely than individuals to choose safe lotteries. Our results also show that individuals risk attitude is correlated with both the type and the sector of employment.