Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

     

What is the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy,and how might policy affect it?

The answer to the question “What will future potential growth be?” is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, the performance of the labor market) with what is known (the evolution of the age structure of the population). It does so in two ways. First, this paper uses the historical experience of potential labor productivity growth, labor force participation, and weekly hours to simulate a range of outcomes for future potential growth—finding a 90% confidence interval that ranges from 0.7% annual growth to 3.0% annual growth, centered by construction around the Congressional Budget Office projection of 1.8% annual growth. Second, the paper examines a range of specific economic policies that the Trump Administration might pursue in terms of their impact on economic growth both in the short run and over the next decade—finding that an outer bound of these policies could be plus or minus 0.5 percentage point on the annual growth rate, but that these policies would most likely subtract a small amount from growth.     

Weighted Pricing Functionals With Applications to Insurance

Abstract

We explore the role of weighted distributions in pricing insurance risks. In particular, we relate the distributions to actuarial and economic premium calculation principles and in this way provide a unifying methodology for constructing new principles and analyzing known ones.     

Teaching business ethics: Questioning the assumptions,seeking new directions

An examination of leading textbooks suggests the predominance of a principle-based model in the teaching of business ethics. The model assumes that by teaching students the rudiments of ethical reasoning and ethical theory, we can hope to create rational, independent, autonomous managers who will apply such theory to the many quandary situations of the corporate world. This paper challenges these assumptions by asking the following questions: 1. Is the acquisition of principle-based ethical theory unproblematic? 2. What is the transferability of classroom learning to the business context? 3. Is it appropriate to consider complementary models in the teaching of business ethics? The last question is approached from the perspective of virtues-based ethics, from the insights of feminist ethics, and from a culturally grounded orientation to moral values and norms.     

The effect of land-use restrictions on market values of single-family homes in Houston

This paper analyzes the effects of zoning and restrictive covenants on single-family housing prices in and around Houston, Texas. The calculation of a hedonic price index reveals that higher prices are paid for homes in neighborhoods with either type of land-use control than for comparable houses in neighborhoods without these controls. The premiums paid for these restrictions are not statistically distinguishable, but institutional constraints on these controls may explain why both forms continue to exist and to command market premiums.     

The Roles of Heuristics,Avalanche Forecast,and Risk Propensity in the Decision Making of Backcountry Skiers

Backcountry winter recreation accidents and deaths due to avalanches have grown considerably in recent decades. To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study examined the decision-making factors identified by McCammon (2004) McCammon, I. 2004. Heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents: Evidence and implications. Avalanche News, 68: 1–10.  [Google Scholar] that are said to be complicit in avalanche accidents. This study also explored risk-taking propensity and avalanche forecast variables in decision making. Results indicate that five decision-making factors, risk-taking propensity, and avalanche forecast variables influence the decision to ski a slope. Implications for how individuals make decisions in risky leisure pursuits are discussed and implications for outdoor recreation, and avalanche education are considered.     

“An Actuarial Premium Pricing Model for Nonnormal Insurance and Financial Risks in Incomplete Markets”, Zinoviy Landsman and Michael Sherris,January 2007

Knowledge of strong predictors of mortality and longevity is very important for actuarial science and practice. Earlier studies found that parental characteristics as well as early-life conditions and midlife environment play a significant role in survival to advanced ages. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects of these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study attempts to fill this gap by comparing centenarians born in the United States in 1890–1891 with peers born in the same years who died at age 65. The records for centenarians and controls were taken from computerized family histories, which were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. As a result of this linkage procedure, 765 records of confirmed centenarians and 783 records of controls were obtained. Analysis with multivariate logistic regression found the existence of both general and gender-specific predictors of human longevity. General predictors common for men and women are paternal and maternal longevity. Gender-specific predictors of male longevity are occupation as a farmer at age 40, Northeastern region of birth in the United States, and birth in the second half of year. A gender-specific predictor of female longevity is the availability of radio in the household according to the 1930 U.S. census. Given the importance of familial longevity as an independent predictor of survival to advanced ages, we conducted a comparative study of biological and nonbiological relatives of centenarians using a larger sample of 1,945 validated U.S. centenarians born in 1880–1895. We found that male gender of centenarian has a significant positive effect on survival of adult male relatives (brothers and fathers) but not female blood relatives. Life span of centenarian siblings-in-law is lower compared to life span of centenarian siblings and does not depend on centenarian gender. Wives of male centenarians (who share lifestyle and living conditions) have a significantly better survival compared to wives of centenarians' brothers. This finding demonstrates an important role of shared familial environment and lifestyle in human longevity. The results of this study suggest that familial background, some early-life conditions and midlife characteristics play an important role in longevity.     

Environmental farm planning in Ontario: exploring participation and the endurance of change

The Ontario Environmental Farm Plan Programme (EFP) represents a significant departure from previous agri-environmental initiatives in Canada. In this programme, the focus is not on the promotion and adoption of any particular farming innovation, but rather on the completion of a farm-level environmental appraisal and the development of a farm-specific environmental action plan. As with more traditional schemes, there is interest in understanding how the programme is performing and in documenting outcomes. Evidence suggests that a significant proportion of farmers who enter the programme complete only part of the process or apply the evaluation to only certain aspects of their operation. In effect, there is variation in the way participants participate. This paper examines the nature of, and reasons for, differing levels of engagement among participants in the EFP Programme. Results from a survey of past participants suggests that farm-specific environmental conditions, farmers’ motivations concerning the environment, and positive perceptions of the programme itself are associated with more complete levels of participation. Underlying some of the revealed variations in participation are abiding concerns for the confidentiality of the process and more general concerns relating to the intervention of the state in agricultural land use.