Joint Dynamics of House Prices and Foreclosures

This paper studies the joint transitional dynamics of the foreclosures and house prices in a standard life‐cycle incomplete markets model with housing and a realistic long‐term mortgage structure. We calibrate our model to match several long‐term features of the U.S. housing market, and analyze the effects of several unexpected and permanent shocks on the house price and the foreclosure rate both across the steady states and along the transition between the steady states. We examine permanent, unexpected shocks to the risk‐free interest rate, the minimum down‐payment ratio, and unemployment. During the transition, these shocks create large movements in house prices. More importantly, the foreclosure dynamics are quite significant along the transition compared to the steady‐state changes, and there are strong feedbacks between foreclosures and house prices. We assess the effects of a temporary reduction in the risk‐free interest rate, which has moderate effects on house prices but little effect on foreclosure dynamics. We also study the effects of an ex ante macroprudential policy, which establishes a minimum down‐payment requirement at a higher threshold. Such a macroprudential policy helps substantially stabilize both house prices and foreclosures.     

The Relationship between Retirement Wealth and Householders' Lifetime Personal Financial and Investing Behaviors

While previous research indicates wide wealth dispersion at retirement within households with similar lifetime incomes, there have been few attempts to identify personal financial behaviors associated with retirement wealth in households matched for lifetime income. Householders with similar demographics and lifetime income but differing markedly in net worth near retirement were surveyed in terms of personal financial behaviors undertaken during their lifetime. Results revealed key differences between householders with low and high retirement wealth in their financial behaviors and how these were acquired.