The multiple filter test for change point detection in time series

A framework for the detection of change points in the expectation in sequences of random variables is presented. Specifically, we investigate time series with general distributional assumptions that may show an unknown number of change points in the expectation occurring on multiple time scales and that may also contain change points in other parameters. To that end we propose a multiple filter test (MFT) that tests the null hypothesis of constant expectation and, in case of rejection of the null hypothesis, an algorithm that estimates the change points.The MFT has three important benefits. First, it allows for general distributional assumptions in the underlying model, assuming piecewise sequences of i.i.d. random variables, where also relaxations with regard to identical distribution or independence are possible. Second, it uses a MOSUM type statistic and an asymptotic setting in which the MOSUM process converges weakly to a functional of a Brownian motion which is then used to simulate the rejection threshold of the statistical test. This approach enables a simultaneous application of multiple MOSUM processes which improves the detection of change points that occur on different time scales. Third, we also show that the method is practically robust against changes in other distributional parameters such as the variance or higher order moments which might occur with or even without a change in expectation. A function implementing the described test and change point estimation is available in the R package MFT.     

Investments in consumer relationships: a critical reassessment and model extension

This study is a critical reassessment and extension of De Wulf et al.'s (2001) framework investigating retail investments in consumer relationships. Their initial model relates four types of relationship marketing efforts to perceived relationship investment, in turn influencing relationship quality and ultimately behavioural loyalty. Based upon signalling theory, we extend this model by introducing product and service efforts as additional antecedents. Moreover, in contrast to the use of self-reported measures in the initial model, we apply customer database information in order to measure the construct of behavioural loyalty. Based upon 187 consumers reporting on their relationship with a Belgian apparel retailer, the SEM results provide guidelines for retailers how to increase the quality of their relationships with consumers by strengthening consumers' perceptions of relationship investment.     

Interests, Institutions and Industrial Relations

In the comparative politics literature there are two main approaches to the impact of international economic change on national policy patterns. The first — new institutionalism — has been very influential in comparative industrial relations scholarship. The second, which focuses on the role of interests, has been less prominent. Comparing industrial relations reform in Australia and New Zealand during the 1980s and 1990s, this paper argues that there are a number of limitations to an institutionalist approach and outlines a framework for the comparative study of the impact of international economic change on national patterns of industrial relations which integrates both institutionalist and interest‐based approaches.     

Exploring the post-termination stage of consumer–brand relationships: An empirical investigation of the premium car market

This research extends customer lifecycle models to include a post-termination stage that bridges the dissolution stage of a consumer–brand relationship with a potential recovery stage. Drawing from 43 depth interviews with former customers of a car brand, this study relies on grounded theory and triangulation to explore consumer responses in the post-termination stage and finds evidence for both negative and positive customer responses after dissolution. The authors combine qualitative techniques with categorical principal component analysis (CATPCA) to explore the dimensionality of post-termination responses and extract relationship-related and termination-related response dimensions. They use these dimensions to identify four distinct post-termination customer clusters, which differ systematically with the customer's termination reasons, as demonstrated through a series of exact logistic regressions. In addition to providing evidence of a post-termination stage, this study offers implications for customer relationship management.     

THE CHANGING LIFE CYCLE PATTERN IN FEMALE EMPLOYMENT: A COMPARISON OF GERMANY AND THE UK

Employment rates of women have been rising but women are often part‐time employed and employment interruptions over the life‐cycle are linked to family formation. This paper analyzes empirically full‐time and part‐time employment of different skill groups of women in the UK and West Germany. Patterns of part‐time and full‐time employment are different across skill groups and countries. Full‐time employment declines and part‐time employment increases with age. Time trends do not change in a monotonous way across skill groups and they differ by country. The strong increase in part‐time rates in both countries over time can mainly be attributed to composition effects.