Time Orientation in Languages and Tax Avoidance

Journal of Business Ethics - Studies suggest that when a language requires grammatical marking of future events, speakers prefer immediate payoffs and engage in less future-oriented behavior. If...     

Revisiting the ICAPM under the distortion of risk–return tradeoff in short-horizon stock returns

We suggest that the distortion of the positive risk–return relation in the ICAPM is a consequence of trading by informed investors to exploit mispricing. We hypothesize and demonstrate that a non-positive (strongly positive) risk–return relation following positive (negative) market returns is attributed to short-selling (purchasing) of overpriced (underpriced) stocks along with optimistic (pessimistic) expectations conditional on good (bad) market news. We verify this asymmetry in the risk–return relation through the indirect risk–return relation conditional on good (bad) market news. We also find that the attenuation (reinforcement) of the positive risk–return relation is more profound in high- (low-) sentiment periods.     

The Effect Of Advertising Content Control On Advertising Effectiveness In The Different Forced Exposure Circumstance

With advances in new technology, various formats of online advertising (e.g., in-stream video advertising) often force e-consumers to watch the advertisement during their goal-oriented activities, and this advertising interruption often makes them feel intruded upon and irritated. To reduce such negative reactions toward involuntary advertising exposures, this study examines whether offering e-consumers the option to choose advertising content can influence ad effectiveness in different degrees of forced exposure circumstance. Using a 2 (advertising content control: customization option vs. no option) × 2 (level of forced exposure: pre-rolls vs. rich media banners) factorial experiment, the researcher noted that advertising customization features generate a greater sense of relevance and increased advertising memory, which in turn may lead to more positive attitudes toward the ad regardless of the levels of forced exposure. The findings have theoretical and practical implications on the use of involuntary advertising interruptions in the web interface.     

Spatial movement patterns among intra-destinations using social network analysis

To explore popularly visited tourist locations, travel movement patterns, and movement points, this study collected samples of 321 Chinese tourists and 337 Japanese tourists who were visiting major tourist destinations in Seoul and its vicinity in South Korea. Results of analyzing movement patterns showed that Japanese tourists tend to be clustered around popular attractions, whereas Chinese tourists tend to spread over a larger area of attractions. Some specific shopping and amusement attractions were the locations most popularly visited by both groups. The start points and end points in the two groups’ itineraries were dissimilar overall, even though their patterns were similar in regard to major preferred tourist attractions. Thus, the findings of this study have the potential to contribute to understanding spatial mobility in a tourism destination through tracking tourists’ movement patterns.     

Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option-implied tail risk

This paper focuses on an unexplored dimension of fund managers’ timing ability: Market-wide tail risk implied by information in options markets. Constructing the option-implied tail risk, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can strategically time the tail risk through adjusting their exposure to changes of it. Using an extensive sample of equity-oriented hedge funds, we find strong evidence of tail risk timing ability of hedge fund managers. Furthermore, tail risk timing ability brings significant economic value to investors. Top-ranked funds outperform bottom-ranked funds by 5–7% annually after adjusting for risk factors. Our results are robust to various robustness checks.     

Does local political support influence financial markets? A study on the impact of job approval ratings of political representatives on local stock returns

Using data on job approval ratings of governors, U.S. senators, and the president, we find that firms located in states with high approval ratings outperform firms located in states with low approval ratings by .64% per month. Furthermore, this relationship is stronger when investors are actively involved in politics, when local politicians are closer to the center of political power, for small firms that have a larger proportion of local investors, and for financially strong areas where investors are ready to execute investments in local stocks. Overall, our study shows that investors’ political sentiment is important in determining stock returns.     

Forecast of realized covariance matrix based on asymptotic distribution of the LU decomposition with an application for balancing minimum variance portfolio

We derive the asymptotic distribution for the LU decomposition, that is, the Cholesky decomposition, of realized covariance matrix. Distributional properties are combined with an existing generalized heterogeneous autoregressive (GHAR) method for forecasting realized covariance matrix, which will be referred to as a generalized HARQ (GHARQ) method. An out-of-sample forecast comparison of a real data set shows that the proposed GHARQ method outperforms other existing methods in terms of optimizing the variances of portfolios.     

Subnational home market bias in Vietnam: Evidence from enterprise‐level data

This paper contributes to the home (market) bias literature where administrative or political borders limit trade across borders. Home bias is well documented at the national and subnational level. To sort out macro (e.g., location characteristics) and micro (e.g., enterprise characteristics) factors behind home bias, we use small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) data from Vietnam. Using the fractional multinomial logit model, we find that the proportion of SME sales outside of their home markets is positively associated with enterprise size, age, number of business association memberships and the distance of SMEs' most important supplier. In contrast, the proportion of SME sales to neighbouring provinces is negatively associated with the share of SME production for final consumption. Besides enterprise‐level frictions, market characteristics matter too. The proportion of SME sales to customers in their home markets is negatively associated with home or neighbouring provinces' governance quality, while the proportion of sales to customers in neighbouring provinces is positively associated with these areas' governance quality. These suggest that good governance frees SME resources for use in selling to less familiar markets.