The influence of entrepreneurs’ social referents on start-up size

This paper uses social comparison theory to explore the effect that the average size of established businesses at the regional (provincial) level may have on start-up size. It is argued that established entrepreneurs at the regional level become referents of new entrepreneurs, influencing not only the decision to become entrepreneurs but also the characteristics of the new venture, such as its initial size. Specifically, the greater the average size of established businesses at the provincial level, the bigger the start-up size of new ventures. This paper further considers how this effect is moderated by two key individual level variables: knowing an entrepreneur personally (i.e., close social referent), and being the owner and manager of an existing business (i.e., past entrepreneurial and managerial experience). Predictions are tested using data that combine individual- and provincial-level information in Spain over the period 2008–2014. The results show the positive relationship of the average size of established businesses on new venture start-up size, and that this effect decreases when the entrepreneurs have previous entrepreneurial experience.     

Preparing for higher inflation: Portfolio solutions using U.S. equities

Investors have always been interested in reducing inflation risk in their portfolios. However, investors face different types of inflation than those measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Moreover, different asset classes can be used to hedge portfolio inflation. In this paper, we show how individual equities can be used to construct equity portfolios sensitive to customized inflation targets. We illustrate portfolios for three types of inflation: US headline CPI, Forbes Cost of Living Extremely Well Index, and the US Medical Care Price Index. We also show how alternative weighting schemes, such as minimum volatility and maximum inflation beta, can be used to construct inflation‐hedged portfolios.     

FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of loss‐triggered fire sales on portfolio risk, in a multi‐asset setting. We derive analytical expressions for the impact of fire sales on the realized volatility and correlations of asset returns in a fire sales scenario and show that our results provide a quantitative explanation for the spikes in volatility and correlations observed during such deleveraging episodes. These results are then used to develop an econometric framework for the forensic analysis of fire sales episodes, using observations of market prices. We give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose a statistical test for the presence of fire sales, and an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class. Pathwise consistency and large sample properties of the estimator are studied in the high‐frequency asymptotic regime. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to the forensic analysis of two recent deleveraging episodes: the Quant Crash of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.     

Personal and regional redistribution through public finance in a federal setting

Following a partial equilibrium approach, this paper studies the effect of fiscal policy on income distribution in Argentina, based on budget information corresponding to the year 2004. Specifically, it aims to provide an empirical answer to a set of questions related to the responsibility of different levels of government (national or provincial) in ensuring the equitable distribution of income; how this responsibility is accomplished in practice, when this function is shared among two or more levels of government; whether an incompatibility arises among the policies from different levels of government; and the effect of fiscal policy on personal and regional income distribution.The main results of the paper are summarized as follows. At the aggregate level, both national and provincial budgets have a redistributive impact on personal income distribution, through a combination of progressive expenditures and (slightly) regressive taxes. Regional redistribution depends on two fiscal tools: the national budget and the revenue sharing regime. The progressive effect of expenditures and taxes interacts with the geographical effect of the revenue-sharing and the national budget, reinforcing progressivity in net-receiving groups and creating a trade-off between progressivity and (negative) regional transfer in net-financing ones. Provincial budgets have more impact than the national budget, both being compatible in pursuing the redistributive goal.     

RECOVERING PORTFOLIO DEFAULT INTENSITIES IMPLIED BY CDO QUOTES

We propose a stable nonparametric algorithm for the calibration of “top‐down” pricing models for portfolio credit derivatives: given a set of observations of market spreads for collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranches, we construct a risk‐neutral default intensity process for the portfolio underlying the CDO which matches these observations, by looking for the risk‐neutral loss process “closest” to a prior loss process, verifying the calibration constraints. We formalize the problem in terms of minimization of relative entropy with respect to the prior under calibration constraints and use convex duality methods to solve the problem: the dual problem is shown to be an intensity control problem, characterized in terms of a Hamilton–Jacobi system of differential equations, for which we present an analytical solution. Given a set of observed CDO tranche spreads, our method allows to construct a default intensity process which leads to tranche spreads consistent with the observations. We illustrate our method on ITRAXX index data: our results reveal strong evidence for the dependence of loss transitions rates on the previous number of defaults, and offer quantitative evidence for contagion effects in the (risk‐neutral) loss process.     

Earnings and Welfare after Downsizing: Central Bank Employees in Ecuador

This article measures the earnings and welfare losses experiencedby displaced employees of the Central Bank of Ecuador. It linksthese losses to individual characteristics such as gender, education,seniority, and salary in the public sector. Data are from asurvey of displaced employees that included subjective evaluationsof well-being in addition to information on activity and earnings.The welfare losses of separated employees are not highly correlatedwith their earnings losses, partly because some of them (especiallywomen) withdrew from the labor force after separation. Earningsand welfare losses also vary depending on the nature of displacement,which was voluntary for roughly half the employees and involuntaryfor the rest. Overall, the losses were larger for employeeswith less education and more seniority, but not necessarilylarger for employees with higher salaries. However, compensationfor displacement was based on a rule of thumb that involvedonly salary and seniority and was applied across-the-board.For those employees who left voluntarily, the resulting compensationpackage was, on average, about 20 percent higher than the welfareloss. The article derives the implications of these findingsfor the design of assistance programs for displaced workersand, more specifically, for the tailoring of compensation packagesto their individual characteristics.     

CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF JUMPS IN ASSET PRICES

Constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to limit downside risk while retaining some upside potential by maintaining an exposure to risky assets equal to a constant multiple of the cushion , the difference between the current portfolio value and the guaranteed amount. Whereas in diffusion models with continuous trading, this strategy has no downside risk, in real markets this risk is nonnegligible and grows with the multiplier value. We study the behavior of CPPI strategies in models where the price of the underlying portfolio may experience downward jumps. Our framework leads to analytically tractable expressions for the probability of hitting the floor, the expected loss, and the distribution of losses. This allows to measure the gap risk but also leads to a criterion for adjusting the multiplier based on the investor's risk aversion. Finally, we study the problem of hedging the downside risk of a CPPI strategy using options. The results are applied to a jump-diffusion model with parameters estimated from returns series of various assets and indices.     

How Bad Is Unemployment in Tunisia? Assessing Labor Market Efficiency in a Developing Country

Tunisia's unemployment rate has been among the highest in theworld for almost two decades. This article claims that sucha high rate reflects measurement problems rather than labormarket inefficiency. After discussing the reasons why unemploymentrates may not be comparable across countries and reviewing thetools that are available to analyze unemployment in a specificcountry, the article provides four pieces of evidence to substantiateits claim. Two of them relate to the criteria used in Tunisiato measure unemployment and the way these criteria have changedover time. Two use records on the number of active job seekersand vacancies as reported to the official employment agency.Together, this body of evidence suggests that unemployment hasdeclined steadily over time and remains an issue for first-timejob seekers only.