The Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth: 20 Years and Beyond

The Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) follow several cohorts of young Australians as they move through secondary school, into further study, work and other destinations. The LSAY datasets provide an evidence‐based capacity for sophisticated exploration of policy and research questions through insights into individual changes, transitions and trajectories across the life‐course of young Australians. This article aims to provide an update on the progress of LSAY, including its history, evolution of the sample, sample maintenance activities, updates to the information collected, developments to the survey, the many uses that have been made of the data and possible enhancements.     

Application of ANFIS to exchange rate forecasting

The need of exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements has engrossed many policy-makers and economists for many years. The determinants of exchange rate have grown manifold making its behavior complex, nonlinear and volatile so that nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. In this study the accuracy of ANFIS as the nonlinear model and ARIMA as the linear models for forecasting 2, 4 and 8 days ahead of daily Iran Rial/∈ and Rial/US$ was compared. Using forecast evaluation criteria we found that nonlinear model outperforms linear model in all three horizons.     

Prioritizing Brand Equity Methods From Customers’ Perspective for the Food Industry

Brand equity assessment is an important measurement of strategic value for internal use as well as for external stakeholders. Although there are a number of methods available for brand evaluation, it is still uncertain which approach is best. Yet almost no research exists that has prioritized the existing brand equity methods from the perspective of different stakeholders through a survey. In this article a model is developed for prioritizing brand equity methodologies from the viewpoint of customers as a stakeholder of brand equity. The developed model can help businesses to deploy a brand equity methodology that best considers the criteria of their customers as one of their key stakeholders. The criteria of this process are the expectations of customers from a brand. The priority of these criteria sets via a structured questionnaire filled by customers. Then the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) incorporates to prioritize the methodologies versus these criteria. This study set out to prioritize the brand equity pool to help practitioners and academics in assessing the alternative techniques and selecting the most relevant one that measures the most important criteria of brand in the eyes of customers.     

An Analysis of Push and Pull Motivational Factors of International Tourists to Penang,Malaysia

This study identifies the travel motivations of international tourists to Penang, Malaysia, using the theory of push and pull motivations as a conceptual framework. The methodology was comprised of quantitative research based on 400 self-completed questionnaires. A principal component factor analysis was used to identify the underlying dimensions of push and pull motivational items. The results revealed three push and three pull factor dimensions. Among the identified motivation factors, Novelty and Knowledge-Seeking and Cultural and Historical Attractions were regarded as the most important push and pull factors, respectively. Based on the study’s findings, practical implications for tourism marketers are suggested and future research recommendations are provided.     

Household tax evasion

Household members share public goods and make intra-household transfers. We show how these features of the household interact with the tax evasion decision, and identify the dimensions in which household evasion differs from individual evasion. In the model we present two members of a household choose how much to contribute to a household public good and how much self-employment income to evade. We are interested in how different evasion possibilities interact with the contribution decisions to the household public good and the role of income transfers within the household. We show the household evasion decision differs from the individual decision because it affects the outcome of the household contribution game. When household members are taxed as individuals neutrality applies when choices are not constrained. If the evasion level of one household member is constrained then an income transfer can generate a Pareto improvement. When the household members are jointly taxed there is a couple constraint on strategies and corner solutions can emerge.     

Demand estimation for the Iranian automobile industry

The main contribution of this paper is a simple theoretical framework and empirical estimations explaining the behavior of the manufacturers. The paper focuses on the frequently used methods of demand estimation for discrete choice models to analyze the Iranian automobile market. It shows how both major companies in Iran choose to produce lower quality products and why they still collusively charge high markups. Empirical estimations are based on Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) to predict marginal costs and markups. Estimation results also support the hypothesis that manufacturers are charging high markups. In addition, the counterfactual analysis carried out supports the view that both duopolist firms prefer to operate at lower quality rather than at higher quality production levels. They also collusively price their products. Furthermore, analyses are performed using the Multinomial Logit methodology to better understand the Iranian automobile market. Tastes of people with different genders and ages for some specific cars are explained, and the effects of population changes on auto demand are predicted.     

A multilevel government model of deficits and inflation

In this paper, an attempt is made to properly identify the link between deficits and the rate of inflation by using two alternate macroeconomic models—one based on adaptive expectations and the other on rational expectations—for a multilevel government system. It is assumed that unlike federal deficits, state deficits cannot be monetized. Nonetheless, the interaction between state and federal inflation is explicitly incorporated into the model. When expectations are formed adaptively, the model confirms the positive link between deficits and rate of inflation. However, with rational expectations, the model shows that inflation is, in part, explained by the forecast error. It is proposed that only empirical testing of the theoretical models would give credence to such conclusions.     

Oil prices,growth, and remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council

How does a decline in oil prices and its impacts on growth affect remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries? This paper carries out an empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices, oil‐ and non‐oil GDP, and remittances outflows from the GCC. The findings of our paper are three folds. First, we find that non‐oil GDP is a key determinant of remittance outflows and that oil GDP is a significant driver of non‐oil GDP in the GCC only in the long term. Second, we document that historically oil prices and remittances tend to broadly move in the same direction but that remittances have been much less volatile than oil prices. An analysis of the past large oil price declines shows that remittance flows to major remittance recipients in Mashreq, Pakistan, and Yemen fell only modestly following large declines in oil prices and recovered quickly in line with oil prices. Finally, we estimate the elasticity of remittance outflows with respect to non‐oil GDP in the GCC using various techniques. Estimates of short‐term elasticity vary between 0.5 and 0.8, while estimates of long‐term elasticity vary between 0.6 and 1.1. We find that construction and government services are two non‐oil GDP components that are strongly associated with remittance outflows.     

Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence

We examine the behaviour of remittances over the business cycle and their potential to act as a ‘stabilizer’ during periods of high business cycle volatility. Two main findings are reported. First, remittances are less volatile than other foreign currency flows and do not appear to systemically comove with business cycle fluctuations. Second, remittances are relatively stable even during episodes of sharp business cycle volatility, such as those associated with sudden stops and financial crises. We also provide an overview of the theoretical literature on the implications of different motives to remit for the cyclical behaviour of remittances.