Keeping Teams Together: How Ethical Leadership Moderates the Effects of Performance on Team Efficacy and Social Integration

Journal of Business Ethics - Prior research has demonstrated a strong relationship between team performance and team members’ team efficacy beliefs and perceptions of social integration....     

Productivity and efficiency at english football clubs: a random coefficient approach

This paper analyzes productivity and efficiency of English professional football clubs from 1981–1982 to 2010–2011, using a random coefficient stochastic distance frontier (SDF) model. Our Bayes factor analysis indicates that this model is strongly favored over the commonly used fixed coefficient SDF model. Our empirical results show that clubs in our sample operate at different levels of technical efficiency and technical change. Our further analysis using ordered logistic regression suggests that technical efficiency is more important than technical change in predicting whether clubs in our sample are promoted or relegated.     

Empathetic responses to advertising: Testing a network of antecedents and consequences

It has been proposed conceptually that viewers respond to certain advertisements via Empathetic Responses; that is, by feeling with depicted characters. Such deep viewer engagement is especially valued in today’s media environment and is central to dramatic advertising strategies. Nevertheless, Empathetic Responses remain relatively understudied. We situate Empathetic Responses within a model comprising high-level personality domains (within the “Big Five”), lower-level personality facets (multidimensional Trait Empathy), and Perceived Ad Vividness, all as antecedents, as well as consequent Ad-Evoked Feelings. Our findings clarify the composition and function of Empathetic Responses, adding to both basic and applied understandings.

Passive Firm Learning and Employment Projection Error

This paper analyzes establishment error in estimating employment targets in business startups and expansions. Passive firm learning models provide a testable hypothesis that, other things being equal, old establishments more accurately predict future employment targets than young businesses. Empirical evidence from 442 Ohio establishments implies that an increase of ten years in establishment age is associated with a decrease in employment projection error rate of between 11 and 13 percentage points.     

TESTS OF EQUAL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR OVERLAPPING MODELS

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite‐sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (Econometrica 1989; 57 : 307–333). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out‐of‐sample version of the two‐step testing procedure recommended by Vuong but also show that an exact one‐step procedure is sometimes applicable. When the models are overlapping, we provide a simple‐to‐use fixed‐regressor wild bootstrap that can be used to conduct valid inference. Monte Carlo simulations generally support the theoretical results: the two‐step procedure is conservative, while the one‐step procedure can be accurately sized when appropriate. We conclude with an empirical application comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting US real gross domestic product growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inflation and the fiscal limit

We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a “fiscal limit”. The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers.     

Beliefs of and attitudes toward political advertising: An exploratory investigation

The major goals of this study were to identify voters' belief structures about political advertising, develop a scale to measure beliefs, and examine how the identified beliefs are related to overall attitudes toward political advertising. The reliabilities, factor structure, and validity tests indicate that five belief dimensions—information, veracity, cynicism, money politics, and entertainment—have sound and stable properties. The scale demonstrates that voters assess political advertising at the instrumental level (e.g., information, veracity, and entertainment) as well as the institutional level (e.g., cynicism and money politics). The results showed that not all beliefs predicted overall attitudes. Furthermore, the results indicated that political involvement was a significant factor in influencing both beliefs and attitudes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Government investment and fiscal stimulus

Effects of government investment are studied in an estimated neoclassical growth model. The analysis focuses on two dimensions that are critical for understanding government investment as a fiscal stimulus: implementation delays for building public capital and expected fiscal adjustments to deficit-financed spending. Implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses to increases in government investment in the short run. Anticipated fiscal adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long-run growth effects. When public capital is insufficiently productive, distorting financing can make government investment contractionary at longer horizons.     

Making Good Decisions with Minimal Information: Simultaneous and Sequential Choice

The adaptive pressures facing humans and other animals to make decisions quickly can be met both by increasing internal information-processing speed and by minimizing the amount of information to be used. Here we focus on the latter effect and ask how, and how well, agents can make good decisions with a minimal amount of information, using two specific tasks as examples. When a choice must be made between simultaneously-available options, minimal information in the form of binary recognition (whether or not each item is recognized) can be used in the recognition heuristic to choose effectively. When options are encountered sequentially one at a time, minimal information as to whether or not each option is the best encountered so far is sufficient to guide agents using a simple search-cutoff rule to high performance along several choice criteria. Both of these examples have important economic as well as biological applications, and show the power of simple fast and frugal heuristics to produce good decisions with little information. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.