Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

Effects of a Free Trade Agreement on the Exchange Rate Pass‐through to Import Prices

This paper investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to import prices. To do so, it employs an empirical estimation of the effects of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the Mexican ERPT, and uses a Ricardian general equilibrium model. The model identifies two channels that explain how the trade liberalization alters the ERPT. The first channel is the direct relationship between the tariffs and the pass‐through by good. The second channel is the effect that tariffs have on the composition of imports, altering indirectly the aggregate pass‐through.     

联邦制森林治理:分权管理经验和潜在影响

80%以上的发展中国家和经济转轨国家正在进行着某种形式的分权试验。以11个国家(拥有全球森林总量60%以上)为例,简要描述了实施联邦制的主要林业国家当前的森林行政管理类型以及施政形式,认为分权后强化了跨部门联系的重要性,许多政府机构都介入了有关森林资源的各项决策;有效的森林治理取决于各种管理机构的能力;私营部门和民间组织在成功治理各种森林资源中也发挥着重要作用。从11国经验中分析了各种潜在优势、潜在危险,指出分权管理减少了中央政府的官僚和决策障碍,但会使全国性的政策协调、实施和监督变得困难。