去库存及建筑总量控制政策对三四线城市能源消耗的影响效应研究

近十年来房地产开发迅猛,在满足人们居住需求的同时也伴随着大量泡沫的涌现。中央提出的供给侧改革、去库存和能效提升给建筑部门指明了发展方向,有效地实施供给侧改革是建筑部门一项重要工作。拟通过开展去库存及建筑总量控制对三四线城市能源消耗的影响研究,为建筑部门的供给侧改革提供建议和参考。站在建筑部门宏观视角,通过文献调查,分析总结了建筑终端能耗影响因素及其影响效应,梳理了中国建筑总量、库存量及建筑领域能源消耗量总体情况,论述了三四线城市去库存、进行建筑总量控制的重要性;在此基础上,根据分析结果、三四线城市特点及数据可获得性,选定自变量和因变量及量化指标,运用岭回归方法,以6个城市的数据为例进行三四线城市建筑总量控制、去库存政策对城市能耗影响效果的定量分析;最后基于彼此间关系及研究过程中发现的问题对建筑部门的供给侧改革工作提出建议。     

Does local political support influence financial markets? A study on the impact of job approval ratings of political representatives on local stock returns

Using data on job approval ratings of governors, U.S. senators, and the president, we find that firms located in states with high approval ratings outperform firms located in states with low approval ratings by .64% per month. Furthermore, this relationship is stronger when investors are actively involved in politics, when local politicians are closer to the center of political power, for small firms that have a larger proportion of local investors, and for financially strong areas where investors are ready to execute investments in local stocks. Overall, our study shows that investors’ political sentiment is important in determining stock returns.     

Do goodwill impairments affect audit opinions? Evidence from China

There has been a steady growth of goodwill impairments in the Chinese stock market since the adoption of the impairment approach in accounting. The influence of goodwill impairments on a firm’s financial position and profitability give reason to doubt its current and future performance. We examine whether auditors, as a crucial external monitor, identify the information risks of goodwill impairments and express their concerns about financial reporting quality in their audit opinions. Using a sample of firms listed on China’s A-share market from 2007 to 2017, we test the association between goodwill impairments and the type of audit opinion received in the same financial period. Our findings are as follows. First, the probability of receiving a modified opinion increases with the amount of goodwill impairments. Second, the positive association between goodwill impairments and modified audit opinions is driven primarily by earnings management risks. Third, this positive association is more salient when auditors are industry experts and there is no auditor–client mismatch. Fourth, auditors are more sensitive to the amount of goodwill impairments than to their mere existence. Overall, we document that auditors perceive goodwill impairments as a signal of information risks and communicate their concerns to investors to avoid litigation.     

深基坑支护技术在房屋建筑施工中的运用策略试析

在我国经济实力不断增强的社会背景下,我国的建筑行业发展十分迅速,在数量、质量上,相较于以往都有了较大的突破.但在实际的施工过程中,由于我国高层建筑数量的逐渐增多,地基的深度逐渐增大,在施工中如果对相关的施工技术没有进行一定的选择,就会对人们后期的使用产生较大的威胁.深基坑支护技术的迅速发展和广泛应用不仅在于它们能够促进我国建筑项目工程施工的有序性和顺利进行,也能充分满足实际的施工服务所需,从而保证我国建筑项目工程的施工整体设计施工服务质量,促进我国建筑工程行业的快速健康稳定发展.     

Impact of Decision Rules and Non-cooperative Behaviors on Minimum Consensus Cost in Group Decision Making

Group Decision and Negotiation - In group decision making, it is sensible to achive minimum consensus cost (MCC) because the consensus reaching process resources are often limited. In this...     

飞机有寿件定时更换的多目标优化

飞机有寿件的定时更换问题,既关乎飞行的安全,又关乎维护的成本,具有重要的研究价值.通过分析飞机有寿件的故障数据,建立了基于费用率和可用度的多目标优化模型,提出了乐观型、稳健型和悲观型三种优化策略,最后结合实际数据分析验证了模型的可行性和有效性,为飞机有寿件定时更换间隔期的优化调整提供了一种可行的分析思路和计算方法.     

Rewriting China’s Recent History: Fluctuations in State Economic Control, 1949–1984

China's political and economic systems are often discussed in combination. It is generally believed that under the political system of centralization, the economic system had to be a state monopoly. This article challenges that view by providing an economic perspective. The period 1949–1984 is selected to explore the causes of successive periods of strengthening and weakening of the state's monopoly power over the economy. Scholars have generally assumed that the period of state monopoly originated from socialist ideology or the personal will of the leaders. But economic conditions severely limited the options available. After the new China was established, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) did not try to create a fully socialist economy in the short run. Instead, the CCP formulated a New Democracy platform that pragmatically allowed many types of enterprise to function side by side, including private industry, household ventures, and state‐owned enterprises. The original plan of the CCP was to allow private enterprise to develop in order to build up capital to rebuild the war‐damaged economy so that a strong foundation could be established for creating a socialist economy. But the Korean War from 1950 to 1953 and an influx of Soviet capital caused a shift from a mixed economy to state capitalism by 1956. From that point on, Mao Zedong and other Chinese leaders had to change course again and again as fiscal crises limited available options. A reversal occurred in 1958 when the Soviets withdrew both their advisors and their capital subsidies, leaving the state capitalist system weakened. The crisis in the Chinese economy from 1959 to 1961 required decentralization of economic authority and efforts to promote rural capital formation. The next shift occurred after 1963 as the economy was organized to prepare for a possible military invasion. The required mobilization of industrial resources in remote regions of China inevitably reinforced state management of the economy. The final reversal occurred in the late 1970s, when imports of Western technology and equipment created another fiscal crisis for the central government, which then had to shift the burden of capital formation from the state to private entities. The reform of the rural household contract system, the adjustment of economic structures, and an increase in exports to gain foreign exchange all took place as part of “de‐monopolization” reforms. The reforms that occurred after 1979 were not an aberration or a radical break from the past. They were part of a pattern that evolved from 1949 to 1984, with fluctuations dependent on the weakening and strengthening status of state finances. The shifts that occurred during this period have either been ignored by observers, or they have been misinterpreted as being motivated by ideology. In fact, new policies were created to enable the government to adjust to changes in the internal and external environment.     

长江经济带中三角地区农业结构的分析与优化对策

[目的]从宏观、中观和微观3个层面深入分析长江经济带中三角地区湖北、湖南和江西3省的农业产业结构及其各产业差异性和相对优势及其竞争力。[方法]在宏观层面运用了传统的基尼系数分析3个省份历史发展上的地区经济水平差异,判断3个地区经济发展是否存在虹吸效应;从中观层面运用区位熵指数分析法分析区域农业产业结构,从农畜林渔等方面判断各区域产业专业化水平程度;从微观层面运用偏离—份额分析法(SSM)分离出3个地区的各部门产业的优势及其竞争力。[结果]区域内的经济差异变化呈不断增大的趋势,基尼系数不断扩大;湖北的种植业、渔业和农林牧渔服务业,湖南的种植业、林业、畜牧业和农林牧渔服务业,江西的林业、渔业都较中三角地区对应的子产业的区位熵指数高;江西木材和竹加工业和烟草业具有较大的产业竞争优势,湖北的茶叶、水产和瓜果疏菜产业优势明显,湖南地区农业产业综合优势主要在于烟草、水果、肉类以及木材和竹类加工业。[结论]通过比较地区农业产业竞争优势,提出发展地区产业特色,合理布局全域农业产业,提高农产品附加收益,稳固对结构优化的资金支持等对策建议。     

内涵服务与中国制造业分工地位提升：出口增加值视角*

作为重要的中间品，服务投入已经成为影响制造业分工地位的重要因素。基于出口增加值视角，本文利用WIOD数据库测算并考察了内涵服务对中国制造业分工地位的影响。结果表明：（1）尽管中国制造业出口增加值中内涵服务总额处于增长态势，但占比在金融危机以后出现了下降，且大大低于德国、日本等制造业强国，要素投入服务化趋势还没有充分显现；（2）内涵服务占比上升在总体上有利于中国制造业分工地位提高，且主要是通过内涵本国服务发挥作用；（3）进一步细分研究发现，中间产品内涵服务和来源于OECD国家的内涵服务对中国制造业分工地位提升作用更为显著。内涵服务占比较低是“中国制造”长期处于全球价值链中低端的重要原因。未来需要加快国内服务业改革开放和高端服务“引进来”，为制造业向中高端攀升提供强有力的支持。     

Alternative Assumptions to Identify LATE in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs

There exist two alternative assumptions to identify local average treatment effects (LATE) in fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs: local independence (LI) and local smoothness (LS). Together with the usual LATE assumptions requiring existence of a first‐stage and treatment monotonicity, either of these two assumptions is sufficient to identify RD LATE. I discuss the practical (and testable) implications of these alternative assumptions, and show that weakening LI by LS might be empirically relevant. However, when LI does hold, there are some practical implications one may explore. Numerical and empirical examples are briefly presented.