2020年的中国能源战略

讨论中国中长期的能源发展战略问题，要从我同的能源需求、能源发展的态势来谈起。现在我国出现一个能源需求快速增长的时期，这两年中国的煤炭、原油、天然气年增长速度非常惊人，都达到两位数甚至接近20％。能源强度出现了上升态势。现在我国能源增长速度超过绎济增长速度，去年能源增长速度达到15％，而经济增长速度只有9％多一点。所以去年能源弹性系数达到了1．6％。而且从整个第十个五年计划期间来看，     

世界石油市场回顾与前瞻

2000年世界石油市场在已经呈现供过于求的情况下，国际石油价格不但没有下降，反而大幅度上升，主要原因可归纳为以下几点：（1）石油供应增长滞后于石油需求的增长；（2）石油工业各个环节的生产能力饱和或接受饱和；（3）石油库存仍处于低水平；（4）成品油价格拉动石油价格上升；（5）市场心理和投机因素的影响。对2001年国际石油市场的基本形势估计如下：石油市场将重新恢复平衡，国际油价将逐步回落到多年的平均水平；区佩克政策的侧重点是防止油价暴跃；随着市场供需形势的变化和油价已达到高位，看涨的市场心理开始消散，看跃的市场心理逐步形成，石油期货投机商必然要找到新的炒点，拉抬或打压油价，以从中获利。在需求正常增长，欧佩克采取减产措施的情况下，预计2001年世界石油价格为25.0美元/桶。     

Effects of health information on Nordic meat and fish demand

Increasing public concerns about health risks associated with dietary intakes of cholesterol are expected to have significant impacts on the demand for foods with high fat content. This paper investigates how information about cholesterol, as measured by two newly constructed indices based on published medical research, has affected the demand for meats (beef, chicken and pork) and fish in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden). To compare the effects of information across countries and over time, the demand equations for all the countries are estimated within one system, and a complete set of price and expenditure elasticities is estimated. Our findings suggest that health information has affected consumption in a healthy way in all countries studied except for Denmark. We find positive effects on the demand for chicken in Finland, Norway and Sweden and for fish in Finland and Sweden. A negative effect on the demand for beef in Sweden also is found. First version received: May 2001/Final version received: December 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors would like to thank Wen S. Chern and Bj?rn Sl?en for their assistance in the construction of the health information indices. The suggestions of two anonymous referees have also been of great assistance. The EU (contract FAIRS-CT97-3373) and the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 134018/110) provided financial support for this research.”     

如何看待中国的能源安全问题

保障能源安全必须弄清能源供应的主要非安全因素是什么，这些非安全因素来自哪里，并根据经济和环境承受能力，选择合理的方式，使环境和经济的综合成本最小。我国总的能源供应对外依存度并不高，到2020年我国的能源产量能保证一半的石油供应，保证最基本，最关键的需要；世界油气资源丰富，随着技术进步，勘探开发成本不会有太大增加；预计进口石油所需支付的外汇始终不足中国预期出口收入的6％。综合考虑，我国能源保障供应安全的战略和途径应是：（1）用尽可能低的代价进一步增强国力；（2）尽量减少国民经济对石油的依赖；（3）加强与石油消费国和输出国的对话；（4）逐步扩大国内市场的对外开放程度，加强与产油国和跨国公司的合作；（5）实际能源供应多元化，石油进口来源、获取方式、运输通道多元化等战略。（6）实际正确的资源战略，尽可能多地和安全地利用国际资源；（7）建立石油战略储备。     

Validity Tests of Benefit Transfer – Are We Performing the Wrong Tests?

The validity of environmental benefit transfer has been tested on numerous occasions assuming classical null hypothesis of equality. We argue against this assumption on the basis of theory, which clearly indicates that environmental benefits should be assumed to vary from context to context. We suggest the use of equivalence testing as a more appropriate and a clear compliment to the shortcomings of classical tests. Equivalence tests test the null hypothesis of difference between the original and transferred value estimates. Equivalence tests also combine the concepts of statistical significance and policy significance into one test, by defining an acceptable transfer error prior to the validity test. The results of a published study on validity of benefit transfer are reversed when subjected to an equivalence test.JEL classifications: Q26, C12     

Improving the financial sustainability of nonprofit organizations through tourism-related activities

One of the greatest problems facing nonprofit organizations (NPOs) is the lack of funding, which directly jeopardises their work. NPOs working in tourist destinations have the opportunity of satisfying this need through tourism, by linking the objectives of their own activities to the objectives of tourist destinations. This article aims to establish whether NPOs working in tourism have capitalised on tourism as a means for increasing their own income. In other words, do NPOs that more frequently conduct tourism-related activities have a higher level of financial sustainability, reflected in a higher share of income from self-funding activities than from donations and grants? To this end, primary research was conducted using a questionnaire on a sample of 205 NPOs whose activities impact tourism and which operate in one of the four most developed tourist destinations in Croatia with regard to tourist traffic in the past 10 years (Poreč, Rovinj, Dubrovnik and Medulin). Research results indicate that an increase in the frequency of conducting activities directly impacting tourism is paralleled by an increase in the share of income generated by active self-funding (income from selling products and providing services) and other types of self-funding (income from memberships fees and assets), with a decrease in the share of income from donations and grants. This study contributes to the existing knowledge by connecting NPOs with the tourism system and by identifying and defining opportunities for NPO self-funding through tourism as a means of improving NPO financial sustainability.     

Highgrading in Quota-Regulated Fisheries: Evidence from the Icelandic Cod Fishery

A model with nonlinear discarding costs is developed for a fishery with an individual transferable quota (ITQ) program. The model shows that limited hold capacity and ITQs provide incentives to discard fish. The model is applied to the Icelandic ITQ-regulated cod fishery to test for highgrading and to predict the discarded quantities of different grades of fish. The results indicate that vessels are involved in highgrading, but there is no evidence of quota price-induced highgrading. The predicted total discarded quantities are 4.7% and 2.7% of total landings for gillnet and longline vessels, respectively. These correspond well with official biometric estimates.     

Hedonic Price Models for Dynamic Markets*

The price of a product depends on its characteristics and will vary in dynamic markets. The model describes a processing firm that bids in an auction for a heterogeneous and perishable input. The reduced form of this model is estimated as an expanded random parameter model that combines a nonlinear hedonic bid function and inverse input demand functions for characteristics. The model was estimated by using 289,405 transactions from the Icelandic fish auctions. Total catch and gut ratio were the main determinants of marginal prices of characteristics, while the price of cod mainly depended on size, gutting and storage.     

Efficient Estimation of Hedonic Inverse Input Demand Systems

This article is concerned with efficient estimation of characteristics demand. We derive and estimate an inverse input demand system for quality characteristics by using 172,946 observations over 881 trading days in the Icelandic fish auctions. An improved estimation method based on an expanded random coefficient model is suggested as an alternative to the currently used two-stage method of Brown and Rosen . The estimates demonstrate the improved efficiency of the suggested method. A number of empirical results emerge, including a general increase in the demand for quality.     

Duration Analysis of Technological Adoption in Ethiopian Agriculture

Duration analysis has been used to examine the impact of time‐varying and time‐invariant variables on the speed of adoption of fertiliser and herbicide by smallholder farmers in East and West Shewa in the central highlands of Ethiopia in the 25 years preceding 1996. The estimated models suggest that economic incentives were the most important determinants of the time farmers waited before adopting new technologies; traction power in the form of oxen and infrastructural factors (in particular proximity to markets) also appear to have been important influences, but less so than prices. Other agricultural inputs (area of farmland, labour, credit), extension services and farmers' personal characteristics (education, gender, age) appear to have had little, if any, effect on adoption behaviour. There is also evidence that the speed of adoption of herbicide, on both tef and wheat, was slower than that of fertiliser.