Basis‐Momentum

We introduce a return predictor related to the slope and curvature of the futures term structure: basis‐momentum. Basis‐momentum strongly outperforms benchmark characteristics in predicting commodity spot and term premiums in both the time series and the cross section. Exposure to basis‐momentum is priced among commodity‐sorted portfolios and individual commodities. We argue that basis‐momentum captures imbalances in the supply and demand of futures contracts that materialize when the market‐clearing ability of speculators and intermediaries is impaired, and that it represents compensation for priced risk. Our findings are inconsistent with alternative explanations based on storage, inventory, and hedging pressure.     

国际策展经验与亚洲当代艺术:CIGE2009论坛

Sook-Kyung Lee泰特利物浦美术馆每两年举办一次利物浦双年展,我们的顾问有来自包括台北等亚洲其他地区的策展人,正因为有了这些身份多元的策展人的参与,使得我们能够在展览当中充分地体现出不同地区的一些作品。     

Social Inefficiency of Free Entry with Status Effects

Free markets may support too many or too few firms. Traditional analysis does not provide unambiguous conclusion in this respect. This paper introduces status effects of consumption into the model. It shows that a sufficiently significant status effect tends to support too many firms. Two conditions are required for this result. First, complementary effect between status and consumption is not significant. Second, a higher average status consumption level makes everyone more difficult to get the same degree of gain in status. Both conditions appear to be realistic.     

AFFECTING FACTORS ON RISK-ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY IN TAIWAN'S BANKING INDUSTRY

This study adopts a two-stage approach, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and tobit regression, to investigate the bank efficiency index and efficiency effect incorporated into account credit and market risk. The authors use the DEA method in the first stage to estimate bank cost efficiency, and the tobit regression model in the second stage to estimate efficiency effects. The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, results indicate that risk factors impact bank efficiency. Banks with a higher degree of nonperforming loans or value at risk will see efficiency decrease by incorporating account risk. Second, there is no significant difference with the bank efficiency index taking only credit risk or market risk into consideration, but there are significant differences on the bank efficiency index in situations without risk or with credit and/or market risks. Finally, the study notes that different bank efficiency indexes calculated according to different risks are affected by different factors. (JEL G1, G21 )     

The Effect of State Workers’ Compensation Program Changes on the Use of Federal Social Security Disability Insurance

In addition to traditional forms of private and public medical insurance, two other large public programs help pay for costs associated with ill health. In 2008, Workers’ Compensation (WC) insurance provided $57.6 billion in medical care and cash benefits to employees who are injured at work or contract a work‐related illness, and Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) provided $106 billion to individuals who suffer from permanent disabilities and are unable to engage in substantial gainful activity. During the 1990s, real DI outlays increased nearly 70 percent, whereas real WC cash benefit spending fell by 12 percent. There has been concern that part of this relationship between two of the nation’s largest social insurance programs may be due to individuals substituting toward DI as state WC policies tightened. We first show that this negative correlation between the national series does not hold over time within states, the level at which a causal relationship should operate. We then test for a causal effect of changes in WC enrollment on DI applications and new DI cases within states over time, using state policy (the maximum WC benefit) as an instrument for WC enrollment. Despite a strong first stage fit, we find no statistically significant evidence that WC tightening caused DI rolls to increase, although the standard errors are large enough that we cannot reject effects of substantial magnitude. We conclude it is unlikely that state WC changes were a meaningful factor in explaining the rise in DI during our study period of 1986–2001, although further study using individual level data is warranted.     

Uncertainty,Inflation, and Welfare

This paper studies the welfare costs and the redistributive effects of inflation in the presence of idiosyncratic liquidity risk, in a microfounded search‐theoretical monetary model. We calibrate the model to match the empirical aggregate money demand and the distribution of money holdings across households and study the effects of inflation under the implied degree of market incompleteness. We show that in the presence of imperfect insurance the estimated long‐run welfare costs of inflation are on average 40% to 55% smaller compared to a complete markets, representative agent economy, and that inflation induces important redistributive effects across households.     

Nonlinear Effects of Mortgage Spreads Over the Business Cycle

This paper provides robust evidence for the nonlinear effects of mortgage spread shocks during recessions and expansions in the United States. Estimating a smooth-transition vector autoregression (STVAR) model, we show that mortgage spread shocks hitting in a recessionary phase create significantly deeper and more protracted declines in consumption and housing market variables. In addition, we provide evidence that these mortgage spread shocks could be largely interpreted as credit supply shocks in the mortgage market. Our empirical results imply that unconventional monetary policy, such as the Federal Reserve's mortgage-backed security purchase program, would be a more effective tool for stabilizing the economy during recessions than in expansions.     

会计师事务所更迭与审计质量——中、美上市公司的比较

以2004年—2009年出具无保留审计意见的中国证券市场沪深A股921家中国上市公司和美国证券市场1122家美国上市公司为研究对象,利用面板数据OLS估计、固定效应及随机效应估计,实证检验上市公司会计师事务所更迭与审计质量的关联互动性后发现,无论在中国市场还是美国市场,会计师事务所更迭与审计质量之间存在显著的负相关关系,上市公司在更换会计师事务所之后的审计质量反而更低,中国上市公司中会计师事务所更迭的负向影响更加严重。     

The Financial Knowledge Scale: An Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Financial Literacy

Despite increasing interest in and funding for financial literacy and financial education programs in the private and public sectors, the field of financial literacy still has a major obstacle to overcome: the lack of a widely disseminated measure of financial literacy, developed through rigorous psychometric analyses. In this article, we develop such a measure, focusing specifically on financial knowledge. Using item response theory (IRT), we analyze items from three national surveys, resulting in a psychometrically sound 20‐item financial knowledge scale. By using IRT, the current analysis uses individuals' answers to inform which questions to include in the scale in the first place, rather than simply confirming relationships between these answers and other financially relevant outcomes post hoc. Widespread use of this index and the continued use of modern psychometric techniques would allow for the comparison of financial knowledge, measured consistently and reliably, across studies, populations, and programs.