A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

Systemic lupus erythematosus and associated healthcare resource consumption in selected cities from the Russian Federation,Republic of Kazakhstan and Ukraine: the ESSENCE study

Objectives: To evaluate healthcare resource (HR) consumption associated with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) management in adult patients with active autoantibody positive disease in the Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

Methods: The ESSENCE was a retrospective, observational study, and included data on patients’ clinical characteristics and SLE-related HR use (laboratory, biopsy, imaging tests, medications, visits to specialists, outpatient visits, hospitalizations) during 2010 from the 12 specialized rheumatologic centers.

Results: A total of 436 SLE patients were included in the analyses, with 232 patients being enrolled in Russia, 110 in Kazakhstan, and 94 in Ukraine. The mean age was 36–42 years and median SLE duration was 3–6.8 years across the countries. Extrapolation to total country population showed that, in 2010, visits to specialists (who assign treatment for organs involved/damaged by SLE) were the most frequently used HR (from 13,439 visits in Kazakhstan to 23,510 in Russia), followed by hospitalizations (from 2,950 in Kazakhstan to 6,267 in Russia) and outpatient visits (from 1,654 visits in Russia to 8,064 in Kazakhstan). Compared to chronic active patients (SLE persistent during last year), patients with relapsing-remitting SLE (at least one flare alternated by one remission per year) had a higher rate of visits to specialists (100% vs 60.8%, p?<?.001) and hospitalizations (98.9% vs 60.8%, p?<?.001). Compared to patients without flares, patients experiencing flares had a higher rate of unplanned visits to specialists (86.2% vs 6.3%, p?<?.001), were more often hospitalized (both ICU and non-ICU) (100.0% vs 50.0%, p?<?.001), and had a longer duration of ICU hospitalization (25.9 days vs 17.5 days, p?<?.001).

Conclusions: Specialist visits are the most frequently consumed SLE-related healthcare recourse in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. A relapsing-remitting SLE profile and the occurrence of flares significantly raise healthcare resource consumption.     

Macroeconomic Impacts on Bulgarian Agriculture during Transition

An unstable and erratic macroeconomy in an economy in transition might be expected to affect agricultural performance. This is tested for Bulgaria between 1992 and 1997 using impulse response functions from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Despite data limitations, it is found that shocks to the foreign exchange rate and interest rate feed into farm prices and agricultural exports but equilibrium will be re–established within 5 years. Agricultural policies may not be sufficient to counteract the wider macroeconomic forces.     

Analysis of the nature of cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and wage in Russia

The nature of the cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and wages in Russia in 2003–2014 has been analyzed. The author has focused on defining the reliability of cost-push inflation theory and demand inflation theory based on Russian data using econometric methods (the Granger causality test and vector error-correction model). The stabilit y of the modeling results (for the purpose of excluding structural changes under the conditions of varying of the principles of Bank of Russia’s monetary policy during the transition to inflation targeting) is checked using the Gregory–Hansen method. In the article, the results are compared to the similar studies carried out for developed countries and countries with developing markets.     

The Nature of Hotel Chains: An Integrative Framework

Despite extensive research in the field of hotel chains, a general conceptual model of hotel chains does not yet exist. Therefore, this article aims to fill this gap by analyzing the nature of hotel chains from three different perspectives (resource-based, value chain, and stakeholder network perspectives), which are the sources of their competitive advantage. For all perspectives, we develop partial models of a hotel chain, which are then combined into one integrated model that can be used in the strategic analysis of hotel chains. Managerial implications and limitations of the integrated model and the three partial models are discussed.     

Extractive Industries Reporting: A Review of Accounting Challenges and the Research Literature

While the extractive industries (EI) are of major significance economically, the reporting of their activities has been the subject of contentious debate posing dilemmas for regulators and standard setters over many decades. In order to ensure alignment with the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) research project on EI, we first identify some important economic characteristics of EI and associated accounting challenges together with an overview of how current accounting standards deal with these challenges using International Financial Reporting Standards as the focus. Second, we conduct a review of extant research on EI reporting analyzed around the key areas of: (a) international diversity of accounting practices and the challenges facing information users; (b) standard-setting processes and lobbying behaviour that deals with why the IASB (and other standard setters) have not succeeded in developing rigorous standards for extractive activities; (c) the reporting of oil, gas, and mineral reserves, given that large proportions of the assets of EI firms (the reserves) are off-balance sheet; (d) environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting dealing with how EI firms have increased their reporting of ESG information in response to regulatory demands and pressure for voluntary disclosures; and (e) other EI related topics such as earnings management, risk disclosures, and voluntary disclosure behaviour. Finally, we present some conclusions together with suggestions relating to key areas for future research on EI reporting.     

Labor migration: Economic and social effects (A sociological survey)

This paper is based on the results of a survey of households of labor migrants in 10 large cities of Russia: demographic composition of migrants; incidence of employment outside the native community and its geography; wealth and living conditions of the families of labor migrants. It examines the efficiency of outside employment and migration plans of migrants’ families. All problems are analyzed at the level of cities and types of employment.     

Migration intentions of contemporary generations in Russia: A new wave

This paper studies the explanatory models of the modern population mobility and migration in Russia as an integral part of the societal trends. The intensity, structure, and vectors of migration f lows have changed due to the large-scale shifts in a society, political instability, exacerbation of ethnic conf licts, and establishment of independent states. Our study focuses on two important streams driving a high migration potential in present, i.e., the population outf low abroad and outf low of rural population to cities.