Lower Bound Restrictions on Intensities in Data Envelopment Analysis

We propose an extension to the basic DEA models that guarantees that if an intensity is positive then it must be at least as large as a pre-defined lower bound. This requirement adds an integer programming constraint known within Operations Research as a Fixed-Charge (FC) type of constraint. Accordingly, we term the new model DEA_FC. The proposed model lies between the DEA models that allow units to be scaled arbitrarily low, and the Free Disposal Hull model that allows no scaling. We analyze 18 datasets from the literature to demonstrate that sufficiently low intensities—those for which the scaled Decision-Making Unit (DMU) has inputs and outputs that lie below the minimum values observed—are pervasive, and that the new model ensures fairer comparisons without sacrificing the required discriminating power. We explain why the low-intensity phenomenon exists. In sharp contrast to standard DEA models we demonstrate via examples that an inefficient DMU may play a pivotal role in determining the technology. We also propose a goal programming model that determines how deviations from the lower bounds affect efficiency, which we term the trade-off between the deviation gap and the efficiency gap.     

A game of timing and visibility

We consider the following abstraction of competing publications. There are n players in the game. Each player i chooses a point x_i in the interval [0,1], and a player's payoff is the distance from its point x_i to the next larger point, or to 1 if x_i is the largest. For this game, we give a complete characterization of the Nash equilibrium for the two-player game, and, more important, we give an efficient approximation algorithm to compute numerically the symmetric Nash equilibrium for the n-player game. The approximation is computed via a discrete version of the game. In both cases, we show that the (symmetric) equilibrium is unique. Our algorithmic approach to the n-player game is non-standard in that it does not involve solving a system of differential equations. We believe that our techniques can be useful in the analysis of other timing games.     

Economic Liberalization and Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rate in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Asymmetric GARCH Analysis

Abstract: For small open economies, an understanding of movements in the exchange rate is imperative in analyzing trade and capital flows. In addition, reliable forecasting of exchange rate volatility is important in risk‐taking assessment and investment decision‐making, both of which are critical to long‐term growth. Using an asymmetric GARCH‐type approach, this paper examines the implications of economic liberalization on the stochastic behavior of the exchange rate series in a sample of sub‐Sahara African (SSA) countries over the 1970–2004 period. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility is variable, and is less volatile under fixed exchange rate regime (pre‐economic liberalization) and higher under flexible regime (post‐economic liberalization), that is, it is asymmetric. For most of the countries, the EGARCH and TGARCH models are robust to parameter stability and gives better forecasting performance compared to the standard GARCH model.     

A Model of a Predatory State

We provide a model of a primitive state whose rulers extorttaxes for their own ends. This "predatory" state can resultin lower levels of both output and popular welfare than eitherorganized banditry or anarchy. The predatory state may providepublic goods, such as protection, and hence may superficiallyresemble a contractual state. But the ability to provide suchgoods can actually reduce popular welfare after allowing fortax changes. Moreover, the kinds of public goods that predatorystates provide are those that increase revenue, not necessarilywelfare. We consider when primitive states are likely to emergefrom organized banditry, and argue that poverty may result instatelessness rather than vice versa. We show that even a weakstate (in transition from banditry) can be bad for output andwelfare, and that a "corrupt" state that makes side deals withbandits is especially bad.     

Financial openness and capital mobility: a dynamic panel analysis

Does unrestricted control on the movement of capital increase capital mobility? Theoretically, the answer is yes. This paper uses the Feldstein–Horioka savings–investment methodology to examine the impact of financial openness on the degree of capital mobility in 104 countries. Our estimates suggest that financial openness has increased capital mobility in developing countries, while its effect is statistically insignificant in OECD countries. This also implies that a developing country with more financial openness can have more access to external capital markets for borrowings. Foreign aid also appears to supplement domestic savings for investment in developing countries. In line with the previous findings, our study also confirms that capital is more mobile for developing countries.     

Backing what works? Social Impact Bonds and evidence-informed policy and practice

ABSTRACT

Social Impact Bonds (SIBs) offer an opportunity to explore the use of evidence to inform public policy and commissioning decisions in both discursive and practical terms in what are frequently highly politicized contexts. We identify three potential mechanisms by which SIBs may promote evidence use and explore these through empirical findings drawn from a three-year evaluation of SIBs applied to health and social care in the English NHS.     

A goal programming-discriminant function approach to the estimation of an empirical production function based on DEA results

This paper describes a new frontier estimation procedure which relies on results obtained from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The paper reviews some of the earlier works in this area and points out potential difficulties with them. It further suggests ways to validate such developments. A procedure is constructed on the basis of a Goal Programming (GP)-Discriminant Function model developed in stages during the 1980s. A numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. Then, an extensive simulation in which the GP-based procedure is compared to three regression-based techniques is presented. The simulation results clearly indicate the superiority of the proposed technique over the regression alternatives.     

New development: What works now? Continuity and change in the use of evidence to improve public policy and service delivery

This article highlights 10 key strands of continuity and change in the use of evidence over the past two decades. Interest in evidence use continues, as do the many challenges encountered when seeking to deliver on this aspiration. There have been developments in ideas and actions, which foster some optimism that better use of varying forms of evidence can be encouraged.     

Public Participation and Citizen-Centred Local Government: Lessons from the Best Value and Better Government for Older People Pilot Programmes

This article examines the contribution that public participation can make to the development of 'citizen-centred government'. It draws upon the evidence of two major initiatives established by central and local government to develop and test out new approaches to service delivery (the Best Value and the Better Government for Older People pilot programmes). Evaluation of these two sets of pilots suggests that the notion of 'citizen-centred government' and the forms of participation that are required to achieve it are liable to a range of different interpretations. In particular there is an important distinction between approaches which seek to promote community planning and user-focused services, and those that envisage a much more active role for local people in designing and delivering local services.