What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?

Open Economies Review - Asian countries have high demand for US dollars and are sensitive to US dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis...     

网络安全事件流中异常检测的方法分析

伴随着计算机的普及应用与网络安全问题的日益突出,探寻一种网络安全异常的检测方式已经显势在必行。而优良的网络安全检测方法可以动态的反应网络的安全状况,及时的做出预警。本文之所以网络安全事件流的异常检测为论述对象,就是因为它不仅可以检测到来自外部的攻击,还可以检测用户本身在日常的操作中所使用的非授权行为。     

黑龙江省农村能源利用及生物质能发展实证研究

在分析黑龙江省农村能源利用结构、利用效率及影响农村能源利用的因素的基础上,探讨了黑龙江省发展农村生物质能源的必要性,并提出了发展农村生物质能源的建议如加强政府政策导向、坚持规划先行、科技扶持战略等,以实现生物质能源的高效利用。     

Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach

The strategic importance of monitoring technological changes is highlighted given the ever faster pace and increasing complexity of technological innovation. In this respect, patent citation analysis has been the most frequently adopted tool among others. However, patent citation analysis is subject to certain drawbacks that stem from only consideration of citing-cited information and time lags between citing and cited patents. This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes. The FCA is a mathematical tool for grouping objects with shared properties based on the lattice theory. The distinct strengths of FCA, vis-á-vis other methods, lie in structuring and displaying the relations among objects from a massive amount of data. For the purpose of technology monitoring, the FCA is modified to take into account time periods and changes of patent keywords. A patent context is first constructed with the aid of domain experts and text mining technique. Two types of dynamic patent lattices are then developed by executing the modified FCA algorithm. A case study of laser technology in lithography for semiconductor manufacturing shows that the suggested dynamic patent lattice has considerable advantages over conventional patent citation maps in terms of visualization and informative power.     

孤儿保单问题的成因、影响及对策

随着加入WTO的过渡期的结束，外资保险公司纷纷进驻我国保险市场，保险业的竞争愈演愈烈，导致保险代理人频繁跳槽，滋生了大量的孤儿保单，其规模之大、波及范围之广，已成为我国保险业发展的一大障碍，如何尽快解决孤儿保单问题，关系到我国保险业的健康发展。     

信息网络与地区经济发展

文章运用多数地区模型分析信息网络的导入对地区经济发展的影响,弄清信息网络的导入与各地区的经济福祉之间的关系。另外,还将探讨地区间服务贸易与国际货物贸易之间的关系。     

工程建设质量控制中的特殊过程确认

ISO9001质量管理体系中对特殊过程及特殊过程确认作了具体规定,本文就特殊过程及特殊过程确认的概念、特点、内容、方法作了分析,结合其对工程建设中质量控制的指导意义,分析说明了在监理工作中进行质量控制的具体做法。     

可转债分拆交易研究——台湾经验借鉴与国内创新

本文旨在对可转债分拆交易的理论研究和台湾实践经验进行梳理的基础上,为国内可转债分拆的交易框架和定价设计提供借鉴。本文的结构安排如下:首先,对可转债分拆交易的相关文献进行综述;其次,阐述可转债分拆的交易结构与理论定价;再次,介绍台湾可转债分拆交易的现实定价与法律框架;最后,结合国内的发展现状,提出国内可转债分拆交易的相关制度设计框架,并给出了进一步的政策建议。     

Patterns of technology life cycles: stochastic analysis based on patent citations

Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology’s progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or double s-shaped curves to patent application counts. Moreover, previous methods cannot be executed at the individual patent level. We propose a stochastic technology life cycle analysis to trace the phases of a technology’s progression based on patent citations and identify the patterns of technology life cycles at the individual patent level. At the heart of the proposed approach are a hidden Markov model to estimate the probability of a system being at a certain hidden state from observation and cluster analysis to group a set of objects according to their similarities. A case study of patents about laser technology in lithography is presented.     

Robust future‐oriented technology portfolios: Black–Litterman approach

We propose a new way of constructing more robust technology portfolios to overcome the weaknesses of previous technology portfolios based either on the judgments of experts or on quantitative data such as patents. Instead of using historical data, the method of nonlinear forecasting enables us to forecast the future number of patent citations and accordingly, to use the forecast as a quantitative proxy for future returns and risks of technologies. Using the Black–Litterman portfolio model, we improve the accuracy of inputs by combining the future views of experts with the future returns and risks of technologies. As a consequence of this, the portfolio becomes strongly future‐oriented. With our approach, corporate managers use both experts and data more effectively to build robust technology portfolios. In particular, our method is of great help for companies launching new businesses because the method avoids heavy dependency on internal experts with little knowledge about emerging technologies. A company entering the molecular amplification instrument market is exemplified herein.